resource-envelope-estimation

name	resource-envelope-estimation
description	Estimate resources, budget, and timeline using parametric, analogous, and three-point (PERT) estimation methods.
dependencies	{"tactics":["multi-dimensional-readiness-scan","staged-gate-evaluation"]}

Resource Envelope Estimation

Purpose: Produce credible resource estimates for implementing a candidate. Combines parametric estimation (model-based), analogous estimation (reference-class), and three-point PERT estimation (optimistic/likely/pessimistic) to bound the resource envelope with quantified uncertainty.

When to use:

• A candidate has passed initial readiness screening and needs resource scoping
• Stakeholders need budget/timeline estimates to make investment decisions
• You need to compare resource requirements across multiple candidates

Budget

Metric	Target
Estimate dimensions	>= 3 (time, cost, personnel)
Precision range	+/-30% initial, +/-10% refined
Reference analogies	>= 2 per estimate

State Ledger

Key	Type	Description
candidate	object	The candidate being estimated
parametric_estimate	object	Model-based estimate
analogous_estimate	object	Reference-class estimate
pert_estimate	object	Three-point estimate
envelope	object	Synthesized resource envelope
confidence_level	float	Confidence in the estimate

Available Tactics

Tactic	When
multi-dimensional-readiness-scan	When resource estimation requires understanding current maturity first
staged-gate-evaluation	When resources need to be estimated per stage gate

Available SOPs

SOP	Purpose
dimension-assessment	Assess resource dimension readiness
gate-criteria-definition	Define resource gates
feasibility-synthesis	Synthesize resource estimates into overall feasibility

Execution Guidance

1. Decompose the candidate into estimable work packages
2. For each work package, apply parametric estimation using known cost drivers
3. Identify >= 2 analogous projects and extract their actual resource consumption
4. Construct three-point estimates (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) for each package
5. Synthesize into a resource envelope with confidence intervals
6. Flag any estimates with confidence < 0.5 for further investigation

Output Format

resource_envelope:
  candidate: <name>
  time:
    optimistic: <duration>
    likely: <duration>
    pessimistic: <duration>
    expected: <PERT weighted>
  cost:
    optimistic: <amount>
    likely: <amount>
    pessimistic: <amount>
    expected: <PERT weighted>
  personnel:
    roles: [{role, count, duration}]
    total_person_months: N
  analogies_used: [{project, relevance, actual_cost, actual_time}]
  confidence: 0.X
  precision_band: "+/-N%"
  key_assumptions: [...]

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Tactic	When to use
multi-dimensional-readiness-scan	Assess readiness across multiple dimensions, synthesize into radar visualization, and identify bottleneck dimensions.
staged-gate-evaluation	Define gate criteria for each stage, evaluate candidates at each gate, and render go/kill/recycle decisions with evidence.