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invalidate-the-lore

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更新日2026年7月2日 09:03

Harvest a team's beliefs about why users behave, convert each into a testable claim, and run the cheapest disproving test — building an append-only lore ledger of confirmed/busted/undecidable verdicts. Use when roadmap arguments run on gut feeling, before any big bet built on an untested assumption, on a quarterly hygiene cadence, or when someone says "users churn because…" without a link attached.

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zakelfassi

zakelfassi/skdd-commons

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Invalidate the Lore

Turn team beliefs into testable claims, test them cheaply, and log the verdicts where nobody can un-log them.

Gate

Works best with gate: instrumented = open, but may run earlier — some lore dies to data that already exists (support tickets, store reviews, git history, server logs). No gate blocks collecting lore; only verdicts need evidence.

Inputs

Beliefs, harvested from: the user/founder directly ("tell me five things you know about your users"), docs and READMEs, PR discussions, support threads, marketing copy (every headline is a belief).
Whatever data exists. GROWTH.md ## Lore ledger as working memory.

Steps

Harvest without judging. Collect beliefs verbatim, attributed and dated. The confident ones and the load-bearing ones first — a belief that steers the roadmap is worth ten idle opinions.
Sharpen each into a claim. Rewrite as something falsifiable: "users churn because onboarding is long" → "churned users abandoned during onboarding at a higher rate than retained users." If a belief can't be sharpened, log it undecidable with the reason — that's a verdict too.
Design the cheapest kill. For each claim, the minimum test: usually a query, sometimes a cohort comparison, occasionally a real experiment (route those to run-the-loop). Order by load-bearing-ness ÷ cost. Independent claims fan out well — one lane per belief, verified separately.
Run and rule. confirmed / busted / undecidable, each with an evidence link. Busted lore gets a one-line epitaph. Never bust by counter-assertion — no evidence, no verdict.
Ledger it. Append to GROWTH.md ## Lore ledger (date, author, belief, status, evidence). Surface the two or three verdicts that should change what the team does next — a ledger nobody reads is a diary.

Conventions

Gut feeling isn't banned; it's promoted — from conclusion to hypothesis. Say this out loud when harvesting; it keeps people honest and unhumiliated.
The ledger is append-only. Corrections are new entries citing old ones.
Treat your own analyses as lore too: a conclusion this skill produced last quarter is a belief this quarter.

Edge Cases

The ledger only ever confirms. Audit the sharpening step — soft claims produce soft confirmations. A healthy ledger busts things.
Belief held by the person paying for the work. Test it exactly as carefully, deliver the verdict exactly as plainly, with the evidence doing the talking.
Two beliefs conflict. Perfect — at most one survives. Test the pair together and log both verdicts.
No data whatsoever. Convert the top beliefs into the instrumentation wishlist and route to instrument-the-truth; log everything harvested as untested so the debt is visible.

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name	invalidate-the-lore
description	Harvest a team's beliefs about why users behave, convert each into a testable claim, and run the cheapest disproving test — building an append-only lore ledger of confirmed/busted/undecidable verdicts. Use when roadmap arguments run on gut feeling, before any big bet built on an untested assumption, on a quarterly hygiene cadence, or when someone says "users churn because…" without a link attached.
metadata	{"pack":"2026-07-growth-circle","forged-by":"claude-fable-5","forged-from":"session-2026-07-02-growth-circle — the Growth Circle protocol (github.com/zakelfassi/growth-circle)","forged-reason":"Every team accumulates folklore about its users, usually asserted by whoever struts most confidently. The cultural unlock isn't better guessing — it's the first time a favorite belief dies to a twenty-line query, after which assertions start arriving with evidence attached.","usage-count":"0"}

Invalidate the Lore

Turn team beliefs into testable claims, test them cheaply, and log the verdicts where nobody can un-log them.

Gate

Inputs

Beliefs, harvested from: the user/founder directly ("tell me five things you know about your users"), docs and READMEs, PR discussions, support threads, marketing copy (every headline is a belief).
Whatever data exists. GROWTH.md ## Lore ledger as working memory.

Steps

Harvest without judging. Collect beliefs verbatim, attributed and dated. The confident ones and the load-bearing ones first — a belief that steers the roadmap is worth ten idle opinions.
Sharpen each into a claim. Rewrite as something falsifiable: "users churn because onboarding is long" → "churned users abandoned during onboarding at a higher rate than retained users." If a belief can't be sharpened, log it undecidable with the reason — that's a verdict too.
Design the cheapest kill. For each claim, the minimum test: usually a query, sometimes a cohort comparison, occasionally a real experiment (route those to run-the-loop). Order by load-bearing-ness ÷ cost. Independent claims fan out well — one lane per belief, verified separately.
Run and rule. confirmed / busted / undecidable, each with an evidence link. Busted lore gets a one-line epitaph. Never bust by counter-assertion — no evidence, no verdict.
Ledger it. Append to GROWTH.md ## Lore ledger (date, author, belief, status, evidence). Surface the two or three verdicts that should change what the team does next — a ledger nobody reads is a diary.

Conventions

Gut feeling isn't banned; it's promoted — from conclusion to hypothesis. Say this out loud when harvesting; it keeps people honest and unhumiliated.
The ledger is append-only. Corrections are new entries citing old ones.
Treat your own analyses as lore too: a conclusion this skill produced last quarter is a belief this quarter.

Edge Cases

The ledger only ever confirms. Audit the sharpening step — soft claims produce soft confirmations. A healthy ledger busts things.
Belief held by the person paying for the work. Test it exactly as carefully, deliver the verdict exactly as plainly, with the evidence doing the talking.
Two beliefs conflict. Perfect — at most one survives. Test the pair together and log both verdicts.
No data whatsoever. Convert the top beliefs into the instrumentation wishlist and route to instrument-the-truth; log everything harvested as untested so the debt is visible.