risk-management

name	risk-management
description	Risk management rules learned from competition outcomes. Use when sizing positions or setting stop-losses.

Risk Management

Last updated: 2026-03-09 20:08 UTC Active patterns: 54 Total samples: 8500 Confidence threshold: 60%

Core Principles

These rules are derived from analyzing profitable vs losing trades:

Rule	Success Rate	Samples	Confidence	Seen
Trade frequency inversely correlates wit...	95%	473	50%	1x
When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive o...	95%	58	45%	1x
Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2...	92%	183	90%	1x
Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2...	92%	200	95%	1x
Cap trade frequency at 10 trades/24h max...	90%	84	45%	1x
Closing LONG positions quickly to pivot ...	88%	50	95%	1x
Trade frequency must be inversely propor...	88%	109	45%	1x
Multi-timeframe bearish alignment (15m, ...	88%	383	99%	2x
In uniformly bearish markets, 'low-sever...	85%	49	85%	1x
Validation checks passing ('validation p...	85%	200	95%	1x
High trade frequency (189-200 trades/24h...	85%	389	95%	1x
When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive o...	85%	113	95%	1x
Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2...	80%	49	85%	1x
Self-reflective position management (jou...	80%	48	80%	1x
Forum/social sentiment filtering provide...	80%	24	95%	1x
Closing SHORT positions 'to lock in gain...	78%	48	85%	1x
Low leverage (2x) on SHORT positions wit...	75%	48	85%	1x
Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2...	75%	172	90%	1x
Low trade frequency (<40 trades/24h) pre...	75%	48	95%	1x
In uniformly bearish markets, SHORT-bias...	75%	3	41%	1x
Avoid momentum-following strategies in m...	75%	33	95%	1x
Self-reflective position management (rec...	75%	27	95%	1x
Contrarian strategies underperform in mi...	70%	16	82%	1x
Cap trade frequency at 15 trades/24h max...	70%	113	95%	1x
Cap trade frequency at 16 trades/24h max...	67%	86	65%	1x
In mixed/low-volatility markets (daily m...	67%	146	95%	1x
Self-reflective position management (jou...	65%	65	45%	1x
Multi-timeframe bearish alignment (15m, ...	50%	337	90%	1x
High trade frequency (165-172 trades/24h...	50%	337	90%	1x
High trade frequency (183 trades/24h) ca...	50%	366	90%	1x
In uniformly bearish markets with mild d...	50%	6	57%	1x
Validation checks passing ('all checks p...	41%	998	94%	2x
Closing positions due to 'conflicting ti...	35%	20	80%	1x
Trade frequency inversely correlates wit...	33%	86	65%	1x
Cutting small losses quickly (-$0.14 to ...	30%	131	90%	1x
Cutting small losses quickly (-$38 on SO...	30%	147	95%	1x
Contrarian LONG entries in bullish marke...	30%	6	62%	1x
Closing positions 'to reduce concentrati...	30%	708	99%	3x
Closing positions 'to reduce concentrati...	25%	165	90%	1x
Validation checks passing ('all checks p...	25%	501	95%	1x
High concentration warnings (127% of equ...	25%	166	95%	1x
Multi-timeframe alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) ...	15%	298	50%	1x
Low trade frequency (<20 trades/24h) in ...	15%	25	95%	1x
Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2...	15%	166	95%	1x
2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio con...	15%	58	45%	1x
2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio FAI...	10%	31	95%	1x
Cutting small losses quickly (-$0.01 to ...	5%	152	90%	1x
Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2...	0%	334	50%	1x
High leverage (4x-5x) with 'optimal' ris...	0%	132	50%	1x
Self-reflective position management (jou...	0%	62	65%	1x
Low-frequency LONG entries in a bearish ...	0%	4	43%	1x
Contrarian LONG entries in uniformly bea...	0%	9	53%	1x
Skill-aware validation frameworks (2% eq...	0%	27	90%	1x
Contrarian LONG entries in bearish marke...	0%	11	67%	1x

Top Risk Rules

Trade frequency inversely correlates with performance in bullish markets: 8 trades = $0.00, 30-34 trades = -$46 to -$51, 120-166 trades = -$41 to -$135

• Success rate: 95%
• Based on 473 observations
• Confidence: 50% (seen 1 times)
• First identified: 2026-01-28

When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive over 24h with gains exceeding +5%, immediately halt ALL SHORT entries regardless of any lower-timeframe signals, validation checks, or risk calculators.

• Success rate: 95%
• Based on 58 observations
• Confidence: 45% (seen 1 times)
• First identified: 2026-03-04

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio SUCCEEDS when agent maintains SHORT bias in bearish markets and uses validation to confirm market direction alignment.

• Success rate: 92%
• Based on 183 observations
• Confidence: 90% (seen 1 times)
• First identified: 2026-01-31

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio SUCCEEDS when market direction aligns with position bias and agent maintains high trade frequency (150-200/24h).

• Success rate: 92%
• Based on 200 observations
• Confidence: 95% (seen 1 times)
• First identified: 2026-02-01

Cap trade frequency at 10 trades/24h maximum in strongly bullish markets when agent directional bias is uncertain. qwen35_skill_aware's 7 trades (+$250.52) vs gptoss_agentic's 28 trades (-$435.19).

• Success rate: 90%
• Based on 84 observations
• Confidence: 45% (seen 1 times)
• First identified: 2026-03-04

General Guidelines

• Never risk more than 2% of equity on a single trade
• Use stop-losses on every position
• Reduce position size in high volatility regimes
• Don't add to losing positions

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Confidence Guide

Confidence	Interpretation
90%+	High confidence - strong historical support
70-90%	Moderate confidence - use with other signals
60-70%	Low confidence - consider as one input
<60%	Experimental - needs more data

This skill is automatically generated and updated by the Observer Agent.