budget-pacing-monitor

name	budget-pacing-monitor
slug	aaron-budget-pacing-monitor
displayName	Budget Pacing Monitor · 付费广告预算节奏监控
summary	付费广告预算节奏监控/跑量过快过慢/在途配速
description	Use when the user asks to "check pacing", "am I over/under-spending", "is this campaign on track to hit budget", or "why did spend spike/stall mid-flight"; returns a spend-vs-target-curve read, learning-phase status, an over/under-delivery call, and a reallocation trigger. Not for initial budget allocation — use budget-optimizer; not for choosing the bid strategy — use bid-strategy-planner; not for the RQS gate — use ad-account-auditor. 付费广告预算节奏监控/跑量过快过慢/在途配速
version	20.1.0
license	Apache-2.0
compatibility	Claude Code and compatible agent-skill hosts
homepage	https://github.com/aaron-he-zhu/aaron-marketing-skills
when_to_use	Use when monitoring an in-flight campaign's spend against its intended target curve: reading pacing (ahead/behind/on-track), confirming learning-phase status before reacting, calling over- or under-delivery, and firing a reallocation trigger when the gap crosses a stated band. Activate when the user has a live campaign export and a budget/flight window and asks whether spend is tracking. Not for setting the initial allocation (budget-optimizer) or the bid strategy (bid-strategy-planner).
argument-hint	<campaign/flight> [budget + flight window] [target curve: even|front|back-loaded]
metadata	{"author":"aaron-he-zhu","version":"20.1.0","discipline":"ad","phase":"scale","geo-relevance":"low","hermes":{"tags":["marketing","ad","scale"],"category":"ad"},"openclaw":{"emoji":"🎯","homepage":"https://github.com/aaron-he-zhu/aaron-marketing-skills"}}

Budget Pacing Monitor

Reads an in-flight campaign's spend against its intended target curve and returns a pacing verdict (On-track / Ahead / Behind / Stalled), the learning-phase status, an over/under-delivery call, and a reallocation trigger when the gap crosses a stated band. This is the in-flight S-lever watcher on the ROAS loop — distinct from budget-optimizer (which sets the initial allocation this skill monitors), bid-strategy-planner (which picks the bid strategy), and ad-account-auditor (which computes the RQS). It owns the spend curve, the pace read, and the reallocation trigger — not the number it started from and not the score.

Quick Start

Check pacing on Campaign X — daily budget is $200, we're 9 days into a 30-day flight. Am I on track?
Spend spiked on the prospecting set two days ago and the daily cap is getting hit by noon — over-delivering?
This campaign has spent 30% of budget with 60% of the flight gone — is it under-delivering, and should I move budget?

Skill Contract

Expected output: a pacing read for one campaign or flight — cumulative spend vs the target curve (percent-to-pace), a verdict (On-track / Ahead / Behind / Stalled), the learning-phase status, an over/under-delivery call with the driver (cap-limited, bid-throttled, low-volume, dayparting), and a reallocation trigger (fire / hold) with the band that decided it. Plus a handoff summary storable under memory/ad/budget-pacing-monitor/.

• Reads: the campaign/flight under watch, its budget (daily or lifetime) and flight window, the intended target curve (even / front-loaded / back-loaded), the live campaign report export (spend by day, impression share lost to budget if present, delivery status), and the learning-phase status per platform.
• Writes: a user-facing pacing table plus a reusable pacing summary storable under memory/ad/budget-pacing-monitor/.
• Promotes: a fired reallocation trigger, the projected end-of-flight spend, and the next pacing-check date to memory/open-loops.md; ask before writing.
• Done when: spend is read against a target curve fixed before the check (not a bare "spent X of Y"); learning-phase status is confirmed before any over/under-delivery call is acted on; the verdict is one of the four with its percent-to-pace; and the reallocation trigger is fire/hold with the band it crossed named.
• Primary next skill: use the Next Best Skill below.

Handoff Summary