meta-budget-optimizer

# Meta Budget Optimizer Daily and weekly **budget allocation rules** for Meta app campaigns. Apply after `meta-campaign-setup` launch and initial `meta-campaign-audit` at 48h. Scale winners in small steps. Kill losers fast. Never let a bad ad eat 70% of spend unchecked. ## Initial Assessment 1. Read `app-ads-context.md` — target CPA, LTV, monthly cap 2. Confirm active campaigns via `meta_ads_list_campaigns` 3. Pull last 3 days ad-level insights before any change ## Core Rules Engine | Condition | Confidence | Action | |-----------|------------|--------| | CPA < 0.8× target, 20+ conv | High | **+20% daily budget** | | CPA 0.8–1.2× target | Medium | **Hold** budget | | CPA 1.2–1.5× target, 15+ conv | Medium | Hold; watch 48h | | CPA > 1.5× target, 15+ conv | High | **−20% budget** or pause weakest ad | | Spend > 2× CPA, 0 conv | High | **Pause ad immediately** | | Frequency > 3.5, CTR down 25%+ | Medium | **No scale** — add creative first | | Ad set CPA < target, budget capped noon | High | Raise budget +20% | | Campaign hits monthly cap | — | Reallocate from losers | ### Scale Increment Cap **Never increase > 20% per day** on campaigns under $500/day — disrupts learning phase. | Current daily budget | Max single increase | |---------------------|---------------------| | $30–100 | +20% ($6–20) | | $100–500 | +20% | | $500+ | +15–20% (test impact) | | $2K+ | +10–15% optional cost cap test | ## Daily Workflow ### Step 1 — Pull Data ``` meta_ads_insights target_type: "ad_account" level: "ad" date_preset: "last_3d" fields: "spend,impressions,clicks,ctr,cpc,frequency,actions,cost_per_action_type" limit: 100 ``` Or ad set scoped: ``` meta_ads_insights target_type: "adset" target_id: "<adset-id>" level: "ad" date_preset: "last_3d" fields: "spend,impressions,clicks,ctr,frequency,actions,cost_per_action_type" ``` ### Step 2 — Rank Ads by CPA Sort ads with ≥ 5 conversions by CPA ascending. Ads with 0 conversions: check spend vs 2× CPA kill rule first. | Tier | Definition | Budget share target | |------|------------|---------------------| | S | CPA < 0.8× target | 50–70% of ad set spend | | A | CPA 0.8–1.0× target | 20–30% | | B | CPA 1.0–1.2× target | 10–20% hold | | C | CPA > 1.2× target | Pause or min delivery | | F | 0 conv, spend > 2× CPA | Pause | ### Step 3 — Apply Rules Document each action before executing. ### Step 4 — Execute Updates **Pause loser:** ``` meta_ads_update_ad ad_id: "<ad-id>" status: "PAUSED" ``` **Scale ad set:** ``` meta_ads_update_adset adset_id: "<adset-id>" daily_budget_minor: 6000 ``` **Scale campaign (CBO only):** ``` meta_ads_update_campaign campaign_id: "<campaign-id>" daily_budget_minor: 15000 ``` **Reduce budget:** ``` meta_ads_update_adset adset_id: "<adset-id>" daily_budget_minor: 4000 ``` Writes: 2 Appeeky API credits each. ## Weekly Workflow | Day | Action | |-----|--------| | Monday | Full audit — `meta-campaign-audit` scorecard | | Tue–Thu | Daily optimizer (this skill) | | Friday | Creative fatigue check; plan refresh | | Weekend | Light check unless high spend | ### Weekly Reallocation If running multiple ad sets: 1. Sum spend-weighted CPA per ad set 2. Shift 10–20% budget from worst quartile to best 3. Do not move > 20% total budget in one day ## Budget Cap Safety ### Monthly Pacing ``` Monthly cap from app-ads-context: $10,000 Days remaining: 12 Spend to date: $7,200 Remaining: $2,800 → max $233/day ``` If current run rate exceeds cap, reduce budgets proportionally — don't wait for month-end. ### Learning Phase Protection | Situation | Rule | |-----------|------| | Ad set < 50 conversions total | Avoid > 20% budget changes | | New creative added same day | Don't scale budget same day | | Geo expansion launch | Start at test budget; don't scale 7d | ## Frequency Gate (no scale) Before any scale action, check winner frequency: ``` meta_ads_insights target_type: "ad" target_id: "<winner-ad-id>" date_preset: "last_7d" fields: "frequency,ctr" ``` | Frequency | Scale? | |-----------|--------| | < 2.5 | Yes if CPA good | | 2.5–3.5 | Scale cautiously (+10%) | | > 3.5 | **No scale** — `ad-creative-edit` or new variant first | ## CBO vs ABO Strategy | Mode | When | Optimizer focus | |------|------|-----------------| | ABO (ad set budget) | Testing phase | Per ad set rules | | CBO (campaign budget) | 1+ proven ad sets | Campaign-level cap; pause bad ad sets | | Hybrid | Scale phase | CBO on winners campaign; ABO on tests | **Testing:** ABO — you control spend per test. **Scaling:** CBO — Meta shifts to winners within campaign. ## Cross-Channel Rules Pull comparison from `cross-channel-performance`: | Condition | Action | |-----------|--------| | Meta CPA > TikTok CPA by 30%+ | Flag for `cross-channel-budget` | | Meta ROAS best in portfolio | Protect Meta share | | Meta CPA rising 3 days straight | Check creative fatigue before cut | | ASA brand cheap, Meta broad expensive | Normal — different intent | Do not slash Meta purely on CPA if LTV by channel differs — use `campaign-profitability`. ## Decision Log Template ```markdown # Meta Budget Optimizer — [Date] **Target CPA:** $20 | **Period:** last_3d ## Actions Taken | Entity | Before | After | Reason | |--------|--------|-------|--------| | Ad set US-iOS | $50/day | $60/day | CPA $14, 22 conv | | Ad D - Transform | ACTIVE | PAUSED | $45 spend, 0 conv | | Ad C - Premium | ACTIVE | ACTIVE | Hold — CPA $19, 8 conv | ## Ad Rankings | Ad | Spend | Conv | CPA | Tier | Action | |----|-------|------|-----|------|--------| | B - UGC | $120 | 18 | $6.67 | S | Benefiting from scale | | A - Problem | $95 | 12 | $7.92 | S | | | C - Premium | $60 | 3 | $20.00 | B | Hold | | D - Transform | $45 | 0 | — | F | Paused | ## Tomorrow - [ ] Recheck C tier after 24h - [ ] A′ creative on B if frequency > 3 ## Monthly Pace - Spend MTD: $X / $cap — on track / over ``` ## Scenario Playbook ### Scenario: One ad dominates spend, good CPA - **Action:** Allow — Meta found winner. Ensure losers paused if CPA bad. - **Optional:** Duplicate winner to new ad set for incremental scale at 50+ conv. ### Scenario: All ads mediocre CPA (1.2–1.5×) - **Action:** Hold budget. Run `ad-creative-edit` on best CTR ad. - **Do not** scale hoping it fixes itself. ### Scenario: CPA spiked after scale - **Action:** Revert last budget increase. Check frequency and creative age. - **Rule:** If CPA > 1.3× target for 48h post-scale, roll back. ### Scenario: Budget spent by 2pm daily - **Action:** +20% budget if CPA < target. If CPA bad, don't raise — delivery is telling you something. ### Scenario: iOS reporting lag - **Action:** Use MMP CPA for decisions. Hold kills unless 2× CPA spend rule. ## Benchmarks | Metric | Scale signal | Cut signal | |--------|--------------|------------| | CPA vs target | < 0.8× | > 1.5× | | 3-day CPA trend | Flat or down | Up 25%+ | | Frequency | < 3 | > 3.5 | | Spend pacing | Even delivery | Front-loaded junk | | Winner conv count | 20+ | < 5 (hold) | ## Common Mistakes | Mistake | Fix | |---------|-----| | +50% budget day | Max +20% | | Scaling with frequency 4 | Refresh creative first | | Not pausing 0-conv ads | 2× CPA kill rule | | Daily major restructures | One change type per day | | Ignoring monthly cap | Pacing math weekly | | CBO too early | ABO for tests first | | Emotional creative loyalty | Data tier system | ## Pre-Flight Checklist ``` - [ ] last_3d insights pulled - [ ] Target CPA from app-ads-context.md - [ ] Losers identified (F tier) - [ ] Frequency checked on scale candidates - [ ] Budget increase ≤ 20% - [ ] Monthly pace checked - [ ] Actions logged for user ``` ## Automation Cadence | Spend level | Check frequency | |-------------|-----------------| | < $50/day | 1× daily | | $50–200/day | 2× daily (morning, evening) | | $200+/day | 2× daily + weekly audit | | $1K+/day | Consider rules + human review | **Don't hover hourly** — Meta delivery fluctuates intraday. ## Related Skills - `meta-campaign-audit` — full diagnostic scorecard - `meta-campaign-setup` — structure reference - `ad-creative-edit` — fatigue refresh before scale - `ad-creative-variants` — new batch when all tiers weak - `campaign-profitability` — LTV-weighted decisions - `cross-channel-budget` — reallocate vs TikTok/ASA - `cross-channel-performance` — channel comparison data - `app-ads-context` — caps and targets