| name | siege-feasibility-assessment |
| description | Use when evaluating siege feasibility or deciding whether to continue besieging a fortified city. Based on Xu Jia's advice against attacking Daliang (大梁) — systematically assessing defender strength, fortification quality, historical precedent, and cost of failure before committing. |
Siege Feasibility Assessment
Based on Xu Jia's advice against attacking Daliang.
Overview
Before committing to a siege, systematically evaluate the probability of success and risks of failure.
Steps
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Assess Defender Strength
- Estimate number of defenders (e.g., 300,000)
- Evaluate quality of fortifications (e.g., 7-ren high walls)
- Consider defender morale and determination
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Calculate Historical Precedent
- Would even legendary commanders succeed?
- If answer is no, reconsider the attack
-
Evaluate External Factors
- Are allied forces approaching?
- Will enemies attack your rear if you're committed?
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Consider Cost of Failure
- What previous gains will be lost?
- Will your own territory become vulnerable?
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Propose Alternative
- Accept smaller gains now while enemy is uncertain
- Let enemy allies become angry at being preempted
- Benefit from their subsequent competition to serve you
Decision Criteria
- If defenders significantly outnumber attackers: Do not besiege
- If fortifications are formidable: Do not besiege
- If failure means losing previous gains: Withdraw
- If enemy is currently uncertain: Negotiate smaller gains
Expected Outcomes
- Avoid costly failures
- Secure achievable gains
- Preserve forces for future campaigns
Validation
- Apply the historical precedent test honestly — if legendary commanders could not take the city with comparable forces, your chances are no better
- Verify that external factors (approaching allied forces, rear vulnerabilities) have been accounted for in the timeline
- Confirm the proposed alternative (accepting smaller gains) is genuinely achievable and not merely a face-saving retreat
