wattlab-twin-calibrate-dial

name

wattlab-twin-calibrate-dial

description

Dial EnergyPlus Twin models vs utility bills (G14). Use when gas/elec is short or long vs monthly bills, Twin calibrate, WWR/glass/infil ladders, seasonal SAT / VAV reheat / DAT dump, or stacked Floor_1–N twins. For as-operated fan/OA/HW chess and adaptive elec-first order, also load wattlab-twin-ops-reheat-dial. Triggers on: calibrate, G14, CVRMSE, short gas, short elec, dial knobs, WWR, infiltration, discharge air temp, reheat, AMY bills, calibration_scorecard.

WattLab Twin calibrate dial playbook

EnergyPlus autosizes plant/coils when fields are autosize. You dial envelope + loads + as-operated HVAC setpoints — not nameplate tons — unless the human supplies them.

Start here: ../../docs/AGENT_CONTEXT.md. Depth: ../../docs/TWIN_DIAL_PLAYBOOK.md. Ops/reheat Phase 2c: ../wattlab-twin-ops-reheat-dial/SKILL.md. Method SoT: ../../docs/BUG_REPORT_TWIN_DIAL_AI_CONTEXT.md. Tools bin: ../../docs/AGENT_TOOLS.md. Assumptions hierarchy: ../wattlab-assumptions/SKILL.md.

Phase 0 — Geometry lock (do this first)

1. Confirm the twin the human expects (e.g. stacked floors × 1 zone = Floor_1…Floor_N).
2. Refuse DOE mid×4 (Basement / Core_mid / Perimeter_*) as the campus twin when the user wants stacked floors.
3. Weather for G14: AMY overlapping bill months (not TMY screening).
4. Bills: correct CSV (shared elec once + that building’s gas).
5. One hypothesis per runs/<id>/; publish + calibration_scorecard.json.

Phase 1 — Annual fuel short/long (envelope + internal gains)

Gas / heating short (model ≪ bills annually)

Ordered knobs (stop when annual gas enters ~±5% or overshoots):

1. Raise WWR toward site reality (curtain wall often 0.70–0.75).
2. Leaky glass: assembly U ≈ 0.80–1.0 IP (~4.5–5.7 SI), not pretty DOE glass.
3. Raise infiltration (ACH ladder).
4. Only then HVAC shape knobs (Phase 2).

Electric short (model ≪ bills)

• Raise LPD / EPD (W/m²). Prefer this over random chiller oversizing.
• Hold LPD/EPD while chasing gas shape once annual elec is near gate.

Gas long / elec long

• Reverse the same knobs (tighter glass, less ACH, lower LPD/EPD).

Phase 2 — Monthly gas shape (annual flat but CVRMSE fails)

Classic failure: winter/shoulder gas high, summer gas low (annual cancels).

Read vibe19 AHU DAT before inventing SAT

• Map discharge-air-temp / discharge-air-temp-sp by month (fan-on).
• Cold dump + aggressive VAV reheat is often as-operated — match it with banded SAT, do not invent year-round constant dumps.

Shape knobs (keep envelope locked once annual is close)

Symptom	Knob
Summer gas low	Cooler summer DAT/SAT, raise VAV min-flow in true summer
Winter gas high	Warmer winter SAT, shorter winter OA hours, lower winter min-flow
Shoulder spikes from long cold-dump window	Band SAT (cold dump peak summer only; warmer shoulders)
Bills ≠ HDD	Prefer OA-hours/ops over more glass; band months; note residual CV floor

Prefer seasonal / banded Schedule:Compact on cooling SAT + scheduled VAV min-flow fraction over year-round constant min-flow bumps.

Phase 2b — Monthly elec / ops shape (adaptive)

Default is gas shape before elec shape. Flip to elec-first ops when monthly ±% shows shoulder elec long / peak-cool elec short (fans, OA, DAT) — see wattlab-twin-ops-reheat-dial and playbook §2c. Prefer month-aware light/equipment schedules only when the residual is lighting-shaped. Blunt annual LPD cuts trade months and can break a gas pass. Use Twin monthly ±% dial chart.

Phase 2c — As-operated + reheat / HW (required when ops-shaped)

Always state reheat coupling: cool DAT + long fans + low OA → more reheat → gas up unless HW is scheduled/softened. Prefer daytime-only HW over full plant off. Full HW off → that month gas ≈ −100% vs bills. Barely-≤15% CV is provisional.

Honesty

• G14 pass = both fuels |NMBE|≤5% and CVRMSE≤15%.
• Annual % alone is not calibrated.
• Never promote a run that flips the previously-passing fuel.
• Document residual: bill shape may not track HDD (log it).

Phase 3 — Publish / freeze

sim → score_g14_monthly (or wattlab score-monthly)
  → write_calibration_scorecard → publish_run_for_studio
  → optional save_best_model.py --set-current

Stamp WWR / U / ACH / SAT bands / min-flow / OA on dial_meta.json / run_manifest.json. Twin charts need nested calibration_scorecard.json (utility_bills.stats_*) — not a bare g14_score.json alone.

Workspace pointers

• Primary handoff: vibe20_agent_spec/docs/AGENT_CONTEXT.md (optional live /data/tools/AGENT_CONTEXT.md)
• Playbook: vibe20_agent_spec/docs/TWIN_DIAL_PLAYBOOK.md
• Session log: /data/reports/CALIBRATE_SESSION.md
• Score / scorecard / ladders: /data/tools/ — see AGENT_TOOLS.md
• Studio: chronological run #, monthly ±% dial chart, dial knobs, ECMs best-G14