asu-assumption-surfacing

name	asu - Assumption Surfacing
description	Plans and beliefs rest on assumptions that are often invisible.
output	{"format":"prose"}

Assumption Surfacing

Overview

Plans and beliefs rest on assumptions that are often invisible. These hidden assumptions can cause spectacular failures when violated. This procedure uses systematic prompts to surface assumptions that would otherwise remain hidden.

Goal

Systematically identify hidden assumptions in a plan, belief, or strategy using structured prompts. Prompts do most of the work; recognition requires some insight.

Depth Scaling

Default: 2x. Parse depth from $ARGUMENTS if specified (e.g., "/asu 4x [input]").

Depth	Min Assumptions Surfaced	Min Domains Checked	Min Verification Tests	Min Stakeholder Perspectives
1x	5	2	1	1
2x	8	3	2	2
4x	12	5	3	3
8x	18	7	5	5
16x	25	9	8	7

These are floors. Go deeper where insight is dense. Compress where it's not.

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Steps

Step 1: State the Subject

Clearly describe the plan, belief, or strategy being examined. Be specific about what it claims or proposes.

Output: Subject description

Step 2: Apply Assumption Prompts

Go through each category of prompts systematically. For each prompt, ask: "What am I assuming about this?" Record all assumptions, even obvious ones.

Output: Raw assumption list

Step 3: Consolidate and Deduplicate

Combine similar assumptions. Remove true duplicates. Clarify vague assumptions.

Output: Clean assumption list

Step 4: Assess Criticality

For each assumption, ask: "If this assumption is wrong, does the plan still work?"

Critical = Plan fails if assumption is wrong Important = Plan degraded if wrong Minor = Doesn't significantly affect plan

Output: Prioritized assumptions

Step 5: Assess Confidence

For each critical assumption:

• How confident are you it's true?
• What's the evidence?
• Has it been tested?

High risk = Critical + Low confidence

Output: Confidence assessment

Step 6: Plan Validation

For high-risk assumptions (critical + low confidence):

• How could you test this?
• What would prove it wrong?
• What's the cheapest test?

Output: Validation plan

Step 7: Consider Alternatives

For each critical assumption: "If this is wrong, what's the alternative plan?" Having contingencies reduces risk.

Output: Contingency plans

When to Use

• Before committing to a plan
• When a strategy seems too good
• When there's unexpected disagreement
• When adapting a solution to new context
• To stress-test thinking

Verification

• All prompt categories were considered
• Assumptions are clearly stated (not vague)
• Criticality was assessed for each
• High-risk assumptions have validation plans
• Contingencies exist for critical assumptions