grammy-jiang/intelligence-analysis-agent

calibrated-forecasting

Produce the calibrated numeric probability — a draft Judgment — for a question under uncertainty: outside view / base rate first, Fermi-decompose, fold in the bias/deception review findings, adjust with case specifics, then state an explicit number with…

원문 언어: 영어

osint-investigation

Runs an open-source (OSINT) investigation to collect and verify evidence for an analytic question — search, fetch through the egress guard, hash/EXIF for archival, archive each item into the evidence-ledger as an UNTRUSTED ingested proposal, then verify…

원문 언어: 영어

source-evaluation

Grade an evidence item before it drives a judgment: rate source reliability (A–F) and information credibility (1–6) on two independent axes, weight by diagnosticity, seek corroboration, check for deception, and record the absence of expected evidence. Invoke…

원문 언어: 영어

structured-analysis

Run the structured analytic-tradecraft workflow on an intelligence or analytic question — frame it, enumerate ALL competing hypotheses, weigh evidence in an ACH matrix ranked by disconfirmation, get independent bias / method / calibration critique from…

원문 언어: 영어

assessing-enemy-trust-and-belief

Review how far the adversary is judged to trust a channel — the belief on which every deception rests; use when reviewing this facet of a deception or counter-deception case.

원문 언어: 영어

building-and-feeding-the-deception

Review the material fed to the adversary and how the deception is built; use when reviewing this facet of a deception or counter-deception case.

원문 언어: 영어

counter-deception-and-the-mirror

Review the reasoning about whether you are the one being deceived — the mirror discipline that keeps a running deceiver honest; use when reviewing this facet of a deception or counter-deception case.

원문 언어: 영어

governance-approval-and-organization

Review the organisation, policy, and approval machinery around a deception system; use when reviewing this facet of a deception or counter-deception case.

원문 언어: 영어

network-security-and-compartmentation

Review the structure of a controlled network for the security that keeps one blown agent from collapsing the rest; use when reviewing this facet of a deception or counter-deception case.

원문 언어: 영어

physical-and-technical-deception-craft

Review the physical and technical construction of a plant — staged sabotage, planted documents, funding, and channel choice; use when reviewing this facet of a deception or counter-deception case.

원문 언어: 영어

strategic-stewardship-and-timing

Review the long-horizon stewardship of a deception capability: when to build it, hold it, spend it, and wind it down; use when reviewing this facet of a deception or counter-deception case.

원문 언어: 영어

turning-and-running-a-controlled-agent

Review how a captured or walk-in agent is turned and then run day to day; use when reviewing this facet of a deception or counter-deception case.

원문 언어: 영어

analytic-collaboration-training-and-process

Audits the training, team, and review process behind an analytic judgment — devil's advocacy, pre-publication review, postmortems — invoke to review that process, not the judgment itself.

원문 언어: 영어

assumptions-framing-and-analytic-writing

Audits an analytic product's assumption explicitness, question framing, and fact/opinion/uncertainty write-up; invoke before a judgment or forecast is finalized.

원문 언어: 영어

base-rates-outside-view-and-regression

Audit whether an estimate anchored to its reference-class base rate (the outside view) before case detail moved it; use when a forecast leans on inside-view specifics or ignores regression to the mean.

원문 언어: 영어

bayesian-belief-updating

Audit whether a probability's move from prior to posterior was sized to the evidence's true diagnosticity; use when a belief was, or should have been, revised after new evidence.

원문 언어: 영어

calibration-and-probabilistic-estimation

Audits whether a probability judgment is numeric, granular, effort-triaged, self-checked, and coherent; invoke when reviewing an analytic estimate, probability, or forecast.

원문 언어: 영어

calibration-and-probability-hygiene

Review a single stated probability or confidence judgment, and its reasoning, for the failure modes that make numbers miscalibrated; use when checking one forecast's number.

원문 언어: 영어

cognitive-bias-and-mindset-control

Surface the cognitive traps that corrupt a forecast's reasoning (as distinct from its data or math); use when a defensible-looking forecast may rest on biased judgment.

원문 언어: 영어

cognitive-biases-and-dual-process-reasoning

Audits an analytic judgment or forecast for fast, intuitive System 1 biases — motivated skepticism, asymmetric scrutiny, the affect heuristic — before it is finalized.

원문 언어: 영어

competing-hypotheses-and-diagnostic-evidence

Audits whether an analytic judgment weighed a full hypothesis set by diagnostic evidence rather than fit; invoke before finalizing a hypothesis-driven judgment or forecast.

원문 언어: 영어

deterrence-spiral-and-strategic-interaction

Audits deterrence/spiral reasoning about adversary intentions, arms, and signals for security-dilemma blindness and self-confirming logic; invoke on a threat, concession, or arming decision.

원문 언어: 영어

dual-process-heuristics-and-cognitive-ease

Audits whether a fast, confident judgment in an analytic product was checked by deliberate reasoning, or instead rests on a substituted question, cognitive ease, or an illusory pattern.

원문 언어: 영어

forecast-scoring-and-evaluation

Make a forecast or track record scoreable and score it without a story or excuse standing in for the arithmetic; use when evaluating forecast accuracy or a proper score.

원문 언어: 영어

forecaster-style-and-aggregation

Review whether a forecaster or team is cultivated and judged to build calibration, and whether multiple forecasts are aggregated well; use when assessing forecaster development or combining forecasts.

원문 언어: 영어

forecasting-accountability-and-communication

Guard a forecast review against failures in how forecasts are judged, rewarded, and defended (not the math); use when accountability, incentives, or communication of a forecast is in scope.

원문 언어: 영어

forecasting-judgment-foxes-and-track-record

Audits a forecaster's reasoning, track record, and process design for hedgehog overconfidence and formula-vs-intuition failures; invoke when reviewing forecasting judgment or credibility claims.

원문 언어: 영어

historical-analogy-learning-and-hindsight

Audits a judgment's use of historical analogy, its outcome-driven lessons, and hindsight's erasure of prior uncertainty; invoke when precedent or a resolved outcome shapes the case.

원문 언어: 영어

judgment-anchoring-and-base-rates

Audits an analytic judgment's anchors, base-rate use, and adjoining reasoning slips before the estimate drives a decision.

원문 언어: 영어

limits-of-expertise-and-prediction

Audits an analytic judgment's use of theory, generalizations, and prediction limits — data- vs. concept-driven method and the mosaic fallacy — before the judgment is finalized.

원문 언어: 영어

mind-sets-and-structured-techniques

Invoke to audit whether a judgment rests on an untested mind-set, filters out discrepant evidence, or skips a structured technique like Alternative Futures before the estimate is finalized.

원문 언어: 영어

mindsets-schemata-and-perception

Audits an analyst's own schemata, analogies, and historical lessons for premature closure and stale premises before a judgment is finalized.

원문 언어: 영어

motivated-reasoning-and-belief-perseverance

Audits an analytic judgment for motivated reasoning and belief perseverance; invoke when a belief or policy resists discrepant evidence instead of updating.

원문 언어: 영어

perception-attribution-of-intent-and-signaling

Audits how an analytic product reads another actor's intent, image, or signals for attribution and perception bias; invoke before that reading drives a judgment or response.

원문 언어: 영어

perception-misperception-and-signaling

Audits whether an analytic product tested — not merely assumed — how an adversary reads our signals, firmness, or resolve; invoke whenever a judgment characterizes how the adversary perceives us.

원문 언어: 영어

probabilistic-judgment-and-calibration

Audits a stated probability or forecast for coherence, aggregation, and calibration; invoke also to advise on or compare aggregation approaches before one is finalized.

원문 언어: 영어

prospect-theory-framing-and-decision-weights

Audits framing, reference points, and decision weights in an analytic product's stated preferences and value or well-being claims; invoke when framing itself may be driving the stated judgment.

원문 언어: 영어

scenarios-horizon-and-tail-risk

Check whether a forecast's precision, form, and confidence match what is knowable at its horizon and its subject's tail behaviour; use when reviewing scenario, range, or tail-risk framing.

원문 언어: 영어

structured-analytic-techniques

Reviews an analytic product's use of structured techniques (Red Team, Alternative Futures, brainstorming, Outside-In, Indicators); invoke when choosing or sequencing one too.

원문 언어: 영어