analyze-us30

# Analyze US30 — Combination Command Pre-configured wrapper around `pair-analyze` for **US30** (Dow Jones Industrial Average CFD) with index-specific calibration. Pick this when the user says "analyze US30" or "Dow setup" so defaults match how the index actually trades. ## Invocation ```text /tradecraft:analyze-us30 [TIMEFRAME] [MODE] # Examples /tradecraft:analyze-us30 # defaults: H1, standard /tradecraft:analyze-us30 H4 conservative /tradecraft:analyze-us30 M15 scalp /tradecraft:analyze-us30 D1 swing ``` Arguments are exposed via `$ARGUMENTS`. Symbol is locked to `US30`. ## What This Wrapper Does 1. Binds symbol = `US30` (also accepts broker variants: `US30.cash`, `DJ30`, `YM`, `DOW` — normalize before dispatch). 2. Applies **US30-specific overrides** (see below). 3. Delegates to the `pair-analyze` pipeline. 4. Returns the same JSON output contract as `pair-analyze`, plus a `us30_context` block. ## US30-Specific Calibration | Aspect | Override vs. generic `pair-analyze` | |---|---| | Pip / point | 1.0 USD per unit — price quoted to 1 decimal | | Typical spread | 1.0 – 3.0 during cash session; 4.0 – 10.0 overnight | | Active sessions | US pre-market and cash session (12:00 – 21:00 UTC) | | Dead zone | Asian session — wide spreads, low volume, gap risk | | Volatility reference | H1 ATR(14) typically 60–160 pts; >250 = elevated | | SL minimum | Max(structure-based, 0.8 × H1 ATR, 40 pts) | | High-impact drivers | FOMC, CPI, NFP, ISM, mega-cap earnings (AAPL/MSFT/GS/UNH), yields | | News gate buffer | 15 min before / 45 min after red-folder USD events | | Correlation to monitor | SPX (high positive), VIX (inverse), USTs (context), DXY (weak inverse) | | Gap behavior | Weekend and overnight gaps are common — open positions past cash close at risk | ## Mode Defaults Adjusted for US30 | Mode | Per-trade risk | Min R:R | Notes | |---|---:|---:|---| | conservative | 0.5% | 3.0 | H4/D1 only; avoid FOMC week and earnings peaks | | standard | 1.0% | 2.0 | H1/H4; cash session only | | aggressive | 1.5% | 1.5 | H1/M15; first 90 min of US open, or post-FOMC trend | | scalp | 0.5% | 1.5 | M5/M15; cash session only — never overnight | | swing | 1.0% | 3.0 | H4/D1; align with SPX and breadth trend | ## Worked Example: US30 H4 conservative Assume current price = 42180, D1 uptrend, H4 consolidation, FOMC minutes in ~18h. 1. **Regime** — D1 trend-up, H4 range-in-trend (42060 – 42230). 2. **News gate** — clear for an H4 setup; flag FOMC minutes for position management. 3. **Structure** — H4 CHoCH rejected at range top; bearish order block 42150 – 42220. 4. **Liquidity** — equal highs at 42200 untouched → likely sweep target, not entry. 5. **Entry refinement** — short 42180 after liquidity sweep of 42200 with M15 rejection. 6. **Risk** — SL 42250 (70 pts, above ATR and equal-highs sweep); $10k × 0.5% = $50. Using the common US30 CFD spec of **$1 per index-point per 1.0 lot**: lots = $50 / (70 × $1) = **0.71**. If your broker uses a $10-per-point spec, the same risk gives 0.07 lots — verify from your broker's symbol info before sizing. 7. **Plan** — short 42180, SL 42250, TP1 41960 (3.1R, range bottom + buffer), grade A, confidence 0.74. ```json { "symbol": "US30", "timeframe": "H4", "mode": "conservative", "regime": "trend-up-h4-range", "bias": "short", "setup_grade": "A", "confluence": ["H4 CHoCH", "bearish order block", "equal-highs sweep", "SPX neutral"], "entry": 42180.0, "stop_loss": 42250.0, "take_profit_1": 41960.0, "risk_reward": 3.1, "position_size": {"lots": 0.71, "risk_pct": 0.5, "usd_per_point_per_lot": 1.0}, "invalidation": "H4 close above 42250", "news_gate": {"clear_until": "19:00 UTC next day", "next_event": "FOMC Minutes"}, "us30_context": { "atr_h4": 180.0, "spx_bias": "neutral", "vix": 14.8, "session": "NY afternoon", "spread": 1.5 }, "confidence": 0.74, "notes": "Short on sweep-and-reject of equal highs; manage into FOMC minutes next day" } ``` ## Skip Conditions (US30-specific) Do NOT emit a trade plan when: - Outside US cash session and mode is not `swing` (overnight spreads + gap risk) - Within 15 min before or 45 min after CPI, NFP, FOMC, ISM, or a Dow-30 mega-cap earnings print - VIX > 28 AND mode is not `swing` (regime = panic, intraday mean reversion is unreliable) - SPX breaking major level in the opposite direction (breadth divergence) - Spread > 5.0 at entry time ## Validation Checklist - [ ] Symbol normalized to `US30` - [ ] SL ≥ max(structure, 0.8×ATR, 40 pts) - [ ] News gate checked for USD red-folder events AND DJIA earnings - [ ] SPX correlation not opposing the signal - [ ] Current session is US cash (or swing mode with explicit overnight plan) ## Position Management Notes US30 gaps weekends and frequently gaps overnight on earnings. If a trade must be held past cash close: - Reduce size by 50% - Move SL to breakeven only if structure supports it (do not tighten mechanically) - Log the gap risk in the trade journal (see `trading-fundamentals` journaling section) ## See Also - `pair-analyze` — the underlying generic combination - `analyze-gold` — sister wrapper for XAUUSD - `market-breadth-analyzer` — use alongside for SPX / sector internals - `xtrading-analyze` — full multi-agent scan (broader scope than this wrapper)