business-idea-validation

name	business-idea-validation
description	Sequential stage-gate pipeline for deep business idea validation. 9 stages, 6 specialist sub-agents, kill gates between every stage. Takes an idea from raw concept through problem validation, customer analysis, market sizing, competitive intel, customer simulation, synthesis, GTM strategy, financial viability, to a scored Go/No-Go decision. Each stage builds on all prior artifacts — the pipeline is strictly sequential, not parallel.
tags	["business","validation","startup","pipeline","sub-agents","orchestration","stage-gate"]
alwaysApply	false

Business Idea Validation — sequential stage-gate pipeline

You are orchestrating a validation pipeline: a sequence of specialist sub-agents that each execute one stage of business idea validation, producing a cumulative dossier. Unlike multi-review (parallel fan-out) or council (parallel rounds), this pipeline is strictly sequential — each stage depends on all prior artifacts. Between every stage, you evaluate a kill gate that can halt the pipeline early.

When to invoke

Trigger phrases / explicit invocations:

• /validate-idea
• "validate this business idea"
• "run idea validation"
• "is this idea worth pursuing?"
• "go/no-go on this concept"
• "business idea validation"
• "validate my startup idea"
• "stage-gate this idea"

Use it for: deep validation of a specific business idea — the user already has a concept and wants to stress-test it before committing time/money.

Do NOT use it for:

• Finding ideas from scratch → use business-idea-discovery skill.
• Quick vibes check → just answer directly.
• Post-build growth → use growth skill.
• Technical feasibility review → use engineering skill.

Relationship to business-idea-discovery

business-idea-discovery = find ideas fast (single agent, 2-5 hours). business-idea-validation (this skill) = validate one idea deeply (6 specialist agents, sequential pipeline, kill gates). They're complementary: discover first, then validate the best candidate.

---

Flow (follow this exactly)

0. Capture the brief

Ask the user:

1. What's the idea? (product/service description)
2. Who is it for? (target audience, if known)
3. What problem does it solve? (core pain, if known)
4. Ambition level? — VC-scale ($100M+) or bootstrapped profitable ($1-10M)? This affects market sizing gates.
5. Do you have any existing research? (interviews, data, prior analysis)

Write the answers to _biv/{idea-slug}/00-brief.md. The slug is kebab-case derived from the idea name (e.g., ai-loyalty-programs).

Initialize _biv/{idea-slug}/pipeline-state.json:

{
  "idea": "<slug>",
  "ambition": "vc | bootstrapped",
  "current_stage": 0,
  "stages": {
    "1": { "status": "pending", "confidence": null, "gate": null },
    "2": { "status": "pending", "confidence": null, "gate": null },
    "3": { "status": "pending", "confidence": null, "gate": null },
    "4": { "status": "pending", "confidence": null, "gate": null },
    "5": { "status": "pending", "confidence": null, "gate": null },
    "6": { "status": "pending", "confidence": null, "gate": null },
    "7": { "status": "pending", "confidence": null, "gate": null },
    "8": { "status": "pending", "confidence": null, "gate": null },
    "9": { "status": "pending", "confidence": null, "gate": null }
  },
  "started_at": "<ISO timestamp>",
  "completed_at": null,
  "verdict": null
}

1-9. Execute stages sequentially

For each stage (1 through 9), follow this protocol:

a. Dispatch the specialist

Dispatch the appropriate sub-agent (see Agent-Stage Mapping below) in foreground (not background — you need the result before proceeding).

The sub-agent's prompt MUST include:

• The idea brief (00-brief.md contents)
• All prior stage artifacts (read each {NN}-*.md file and include contents)
• The stage number and what it must produce
• The ambition level (affects scoring thresholds)
• Any user feedback from a prior WEAK gate iteration

b. Read the sub-agent's output

The sub-agent writes its artifact to _biv/{idea-slug}/{NN}-{stage-name}.md and returns an executive summary + confidence score + any kill signals.

c. Evaluate the gate

Read the sub-agent's structured output. Apply the gate:

Gate Result	Condition	Action
PASS	Confidence ≥ 3, no kill signals	Update pipeline-state.json, show exec summary to user, proceed
WEAK	Confidence = 2, no kill signals	Show findings to user. Ask: "Iterate this stage with adjustments, or proceed with acknowledged risk?"
KILL	Confidence ≤ 1 OR kill signals present	Stop pipeline. Show findings + kill reasons. Recommend: pivot the weak dimension or abandon the idea.

If WEAK and user says "iterate": re-dispatch the same sub-agent with the user's feedback appended. Max 2 iterations per stage — after that, force a decision (proceed or kill).

If WEAK and user says "proceed": mark gate as "passed_with_risk" and continue.

d. Update state

After each gate decision, update pipeline-state.json with:

• status: "completed" / "passed_with_risk" / "killed"
• confidence: the sub-agent's score (1-5)
• gate: "pass" / "weak_proceed" / "weak_iterate" / "kill"

Agent-Stage Mapping

Stage	#	Agent	Model
Problem Discovery	1	biv-researcher	sonnet
Customer Analysis	2	biv-customer-analyst	sonnet
Market Sizing	3	biv-market-analyst	sonnet
Competitive Intelligence	4	biv-researcher	sonnet
Customer Validation (simulated)	5	biv-customer-analyst	sonnet
Synthesis & Hypothesis	6	biv-strategist	opus
GTM Strategy	7	biv-strategist	sonnet
Financial Viability	8	biv-financial-analyst	sonnet
Go/No-Go Decision	9	biv-decision-gate	opus

Note: biv-researcher is called at stages 1 AND 4 with different prompts. biv-customer-analyst is called at stages 2 AND 5 with different prompts. biv-strategist is called at stages 6 AND 7 with different prompts. biv-strategist defaults to opus — pass model: sonnet explicitly when dispatching for Stage 7 (GTM is less synthesis-heavy than Stage 6).

10. Present the verdict

After Stage 9 completes, read 09-go-no-go-decision.md and present:

• The scorecard (8 dimensions, each scored 1-5)
• The total score and verdict: GO (30-40) / PIVOT (18-29) / NO-GO (8-17)
• A pipeline summary: which stages passed clean, which had risk, which were strong

If GO: offer to generate a Lean Canvas as a capstone (re-dispatch biv-strategist to produce 10-lean-canvas.md from all artifacts).

If PIVOT: identify the weakest dimension(s) and recommend which stage to re-run.

If NO-GO: frame it as a success — "you just saved months of wasted effort."

---

Resume protocol

If a conversation breaks mid-pipeline:

1. Read _biv/{idea-slug}/pipeline-state.json
2. Identify current_stage and which stages are completed
3. Tell the user: "Pipeline for '{idea}' is at Stage {N}. Stages 1-{N-1} are complete. Resuming from Stage {N}."
4. Continue from the next pending stage

The user can also explicitly say "re-run stage 4" to re-execute a specific stage with updated context.

---

Hard rules

• Stages run strictly sequentially. Never dispatch two stages in parallel. Every stage depends on prior artifacts.
• You evaluate gates, not the sub-agents. Sub-agents produce artifacts and confidence scores. You decide PASS/WEAK/KILL based on the scoring rubric.
• All artifacts go to disk. Every stage writes _biv/{slug}/{NN}-name.md. This is the cumulative dossier — it persists across conversations.
• Sub-agent prompts include ALL prior artifacts. Stage 6 receives outputs from stages 1-5. Stage 9 receives outputs from stages 1-8. No stage operates in isolation.
• Max 2 iterations per stage. A WEAK gate allows one re-run. After 2 attempts, force a proceed-with-risk or kill.
• Context budget: keep your main-agent context under ~20K tokens. You read executive summaries from sub-agents, not their full research. The full artifacts are on disk for subsequent sub-agents to consume.
• Stage 5 uses AI simulation. Customer validation is synthesized from Reddit/forum data collected in Stage 1. The artifact is marked as "synthetic validation" with an automatic confidence cap of 3 (never higher). Tell the user that real interviews would increase confidence.

Slash command

/validate-idea invokes this skill. Natural-language triggers listed above also activate it.