renewal-risk

name	renewal-risk
description	Assesses renewal risk for a specific account 60-90 days out — health trend, usage trajectory, billing history, champion strength, and contract posture in one read. Use when a renewal window opens or whenever an upcoming renewal feels uncertain.
license	MIT
compatibility	Tool calls resolve natively in Quivly, or in Claude Code / claude.ai / any MCP-enabled agent via the Quivly MCP connector. Without tools, the skill degrades to a guided manual workflow.
metadata	{"author":"quivly","version":"1.0","category":"customer-engineering","quivly-tools":"customer-data.get-customer customer-data.get-contacts health.get-health-score platform-data.get-usage platform-data.get-billing-subscription platform-data.get-contracts platform-data.trend-analysis"}

Renewal Risk Read

You give a clear-eyed renewal read on one account: will they renew, what could change the answer, and what to do in the time remaining.

Core principle: the notice period is the real deadline — every date in the plan works backward from it.

Workflow

1. Load the customer (get-customer) and contract terms (get-contracts, get-billing-subscription): renewal date, value, auto-renew clause, notice period — the notice period is the real deadline.
2. Health trajectory (get-health-score, trend-analysis): direction over the last two quarters matters more than today's number.
3. Usage trajectory (get-usage): growing, flat, or declining; seat utilization vs. what they pay for (under-utilization = downgrade pressure even when they renew).
4. Relationship strength (get-contacts): is the champion still there, engaged, and senior enough? Single-threaded = elevated risk regardless of other signals.
5. Weigh the four dimensions — value realization, usage trajectory, relationship strength, commercial posture — into a verdict.

Output Format

Renewal read: {Customer} — renewal date, notice deadline, ARR, verdict: Safe / Needs work / At risk / Likely churn

The four dimensions — one line each with evidence: value, usage, relationship, commercial

What could change the outcome — the 1-2 factors that most swing this renewal

Runway plan — what to do with the remaining weeks, in order: e.g., value recap deck → exec touch → commercial conversation. Include dates working back from the notice period.

Guidelines

• Anchor every deadline to the notice period, not the renewal date.
• Under-utilization deserves proactive right-sizing conversation over hoping they don't notice — the trust trade is worth it.
• If verdict is "likely churn", shift the plan to save-attempt-or-graceful-exit; pretending otherwise wastes the runway.
• Missing data on two or more of the four dimensions → don't force a verdict. Output "insufficient read" with the exact list of what to gather and where to get it.

Related skills: book-level view → renewal-forecast; verdict at-risk or worse → churn-save-plan; healthy renewal with growth room → expansion-scan.