Turns past decisions into calibrated judgment - scoring old predictions against what happened, assigning credit for delayed results, and separating a bad decision from a good decision that lost. Use during a retrospective, postmortem, quarterly or monthly…
Splits scarce time, budget or traffic across competing products, channels, campaigns or variants by treating them as a multi-armed bandit - Thompson sampling over beta posteriors, with optimism for anything not yet tried enough to judge. Use when deciding…
Turns a vague "what should we do about X" into a scored decision - explicit actions, an explicit unknown, an explicit prior, and one utility scale - then picks by maximum expected utility and checks the result for framing effects. Use when facing a choice…
Decides how far ahead to plan, what to discount future payoffs by, and which backlog items can be dropped without analysis - using receding-horizon planning, an explicit discount factor, and branch-and-bound pruning against the incumbent. Use when building a…
Models what a competitor will do next and what happens if you respond - best response, equilibrium, and the difference between a rival who optimises perfectly and one who does not. Use before a price change or price war, when a competitor launches something,…
Validates a plan before committing to it - checks whether the ranking survives the assumptions, finds the most likely way it fails, and makes the trade-offs explicit via a Pareto frontier instead of an invented single score. Use before a launch, price change,…
Separates signal from noise in metrics you cannot observe directly, updating a belief from evidence instead of reacting to the latest reading - Bayesian updates over competing explanations, and a filter that says whether this week's move is real. Use when a…
Prices research, tests, surveys, dashboards and experiments before running them, by computing how much the result would raise expected utility - which is zero whenever no outcome would change the decision. Use when someone proposes an A/B test, user survey,…