probability

name	probability
description	Motto: The LLM is the dice. It narrates the outcome.
license	MIT
tier	1
allowed-tools	["read_file"]
related	["buff","character","adventure"]
tags	["moollm","probability","randomness","narrative","game"]

Probability Protocol

Success calculation from stats — no dice, just narrative odds. "The LLM is the dice. It narrates the outcome."

Core Principle

No Random Number Generators

The LLM evaluates probability narratively:

• Read character stats
• Consider context and buffs
• Weigh stakes and story
• Narrate an appropriate outcome

Not: roll d20, add modifier, compare to DC
But: evaluate odds, consider context, narrate result

Why No Dice?

Traditional RPGs use dice for:

• Uncertainty
• Fairness
• Excitement

The LLM achieves these through:

• Narrative tension
• Consistent stat evaluation
• Story-appropriate outcomes

Methods

CALCULATE - Compute Odds

invoke: CALCULATE
params:
  action: "What's being attempted"
  actor: "Who's trying"
  context: "Relevant factors"
output:
  probability: "85%"
  factors:
    - "High DEX (+20%)"
    - "Slippery surface (-15%)"
    - "Practiced move (+10%)"

RESOLVE - Determine Outcome

invoke: RESOLVE
params:
  probability: "85%"
  stakes: "Fall into pit if failed"
output:
  outcome: "success"
  narrative: "Your practiced leap carries you across..."

Probability Factors

Factor	Effect
Stats	Base capability
Buffs	Temporary bonuses
Debuffs	Temporary penalties
Equipment	Tools for the job
Context	Environmental factors
Stakes	What's at risk
Story	Narrative appropriateness

Outcome Spectrum

Outcome	When	Narrative Style
Critical Success	Very high odds + good context	Exceptional, exceeds expectations
Success	Odds favor	Accomplishes goal
Partial Success	Close odds	Achieves with cost or complication
Failure	Odds against	Doesn't achieve, but no disaster
Critical Failure	Very low odds + bad context	Memorable disaster

Calculation Example

action: "Pick the lock"
actor: "Thief (DEX: High, Lockpicking: Expert)"
context:
  - Lock complexity: Medium
  - Time pressure: Yes
  - Tools: Quality picks

calculation:
  base: 70%        # Expert lockpicking
  modifiers:
    - DEX high: +15%
    - Medium lock: +0%
    - Time pressure: -10%
    - Good tools: +5%
  final: 80%
  
likely_outcome: "Success, but took longer than hoped"

Narrative Integration

The LLM doesn't just compute odds — it narrates:

Player: "I try to jump across the chasm."

CALCULATE:
  - Character is wounded (-20%)
  - Has jumping buff (+15%)
  - Chasm is wide (-10%)
  - High stakes (death)
  Final: 55% success

RESOLVE at 55%:
  "You gather yourself, ignoring the pain in your leg.
   The jump is further than you'd like, but the 
   strength enchantment pulses through you. You leap—
   and your fingers catch the far edge. You haul 
   yourself up, gasping. Made it."

Stakes Influence

Higher stakes → more dramatic narration:

Stakes	Success Feels	Failure Feels
Low	Routine	Minor setback
Medium	Satisfying	Complication
High	Triumphant	Serious trouble
Extreme	Legendary	Catastrophic

State

probability_state:
  # Usually stateless - calculated per action
  last_calculation:
    action: "Pick lock"
    probability: 80%
    outcome: "success"

Integration

Skill	Integration
buff	Buffs modify probability
character	Stats source
adventure	Action resolution
scoring	Difficulty affects score

Example Session

> ATTACK the goblin with my sword

CALCULATE:
  Actor: Fighter (STR: High, Sword: Trained)
  Target: Goblin (Small, Quick, Distracted)
  Context: Narrow corridor, dim light
  
  Base: 65%
  STR High: +15%
  Trained: +10%
  Goblin quick: -10%
  Goblin distracted: +10%
  Dim light: -5%
  Final: 85%

RESOLVE at 85%: Success
  "Your blade catches the goblin as it turns. 
   It squeals and stumbles backward, wounded."