bi-risk-detector

name	bi-risk-detector
description	Monitors a defined set of risk indicators across the customer portfolio and generates prioritised risk alerts. Combines leading indicators from usage and health data with event-based triggers like champion departure, support escalation, and missed meetings. Use when asked to identify at-risk accounts, build a risk queue, set up churn early warning, monitor renewal risk, create risk dashboards, prioritise CSM intervention, or when any workflow needs to know which accounts require immediate attention. Also triggers for churn prediction, risk scoring, and portfolio risk assessment.
license	MIT
metadata	{"author":"Stephen Rogan","version":"1.0.0","pillar":"book-intelligence","category":"detection-layer"}

Risk Signal Detector

Monitors risk indicators across the portfolio and generates prioritised alerts. Part of the Book Intelligence detection layer -- consumes data from the Health Score Engine and Usage Pattern Monitor, produces a ranked risk queue for human triage.

This is a detection and prioritisation skill. It identifies signals, scores severity, and ranks accounts for human attention. It never initiates customer contact, triggers save plays, or makes intervention decisions. Those are human territory.

When to Run

• Event-based triggers: Near-real-time monitoring via webhooks or event streams for champion departure, P1 support tickets, declined meetings, competitive mentions
• Metric-based triggers: Scheduled cadence aligned with Health Score Engine (daily for high-touch, weekly for scaled)
• On-demand: When a human requests the current risk queue or risk assessment for a specific account

Signal Registry

The risk signal registry defines every signal the detector monitors. Each signal has a type, a severity weight, a detection method, and evidence requirements.

Metric-Based Signals

Signal	Detection Source	Severity (1-5)	Evidence Required
Health score below 65	Health Score Engine	3	Composite score, component breakdown
Health score rapid decline (>10pts/7d)	Health Score Engine	4	Score delta, timeline, component drivers
Usage gradual decline (3+ periods)	Usage Pattern Monitor	3	Metric, baseline, delta, duration
Usage sudden drop (>25% single period)	Usage Pattern Monitor	4	Metric, prior value, current value
Adoption plateau (60+ days below median)	Usage Pattern Monitor	2	Metric, segment position, duration
Support volume spike (>2x 90-day average)	Support platform	3	Ticket count, severity mix, topics
CSAT/NPS decline (below segment 25th)	Survey tool	3	Score, prior score, segment benchmark

Event-Based Signals

Signal	Detection Source	Severity (1-5)	Evidence Required
Champion departure	CRM contact change, LinkedIn	5	Contact name, role, departure date
Executive sponsor change	CRM contact change	4	Old sponsor, new sponsor (if known)
Declined meetings (2+ in 30 days)	Calendar integration	3	Meeting dates, attendees, decline count
No-reply streak (3+ CSM emails unanswered)	Email/CRM activity	3	Email dates, subjects, days since last reply
P1 support escalation	Support platform	4	Ticket ID, issue summary, duration open
Competitor mention	Support tickets, call transcripts	4	Source, context, competitor named
Contract objection or delay	CRM opportunity stage	3	Opportunity ID, stage, days stalled
Payment overdue (>30 days)	Billing system	3	Invoice ID, amount, days overdue

See references/signal-registry.md for the full registry with detection logic and tuning guidance.

Core Execution Logic

Step 1: Evaluate Incoming Signals

For each trigger (event or scheduled metric check):

1. Match the signal against the signal registry
2. Validate evidence requirements are met (do not alert on incomplete data)
3. Score severity using the registry weight

Step 2: Check for Signal Clustering

Multiple signals on the same account within a 14-day window amplify severity:

• 2 signals: severity of the highest signal +1
• 3+ signals: severity of the highest signal +2
• Cap at 5

Clustering is the strongest predictor of near-term churn. A single declining metric is a watch item. Three signals converging on one account is urgent.

Step 3: Apply Temporal Weighting

Signals carry more urgency when renewal is near:

• 180 days to renewal: no adjustment

• 90-180 days: severity +0.5
• 30-90 days: severity +1
• <30 days: severity +1.5 (round up)

Step 4: Rank the Risk Queue

Produce a ranked list of all accounts with active risk signals, ordered by:

1. Adjusted severity score (highest first)
2. Days to renewal (soonest first, as tiebreaker)
3. ARR (highest first, as secondary tiebreaker)

Step 5: Generate Alert Briefs

For each account in the risk queue, produce an alert brief:

{
  "account_id": "string",
  "account_name": "string",
  "risk_score": 4.5,
  "arr": 85000,
  "days_to_renewal": 67,
  "health_score": 58,
  "active_signals": [
    {
      "signal": "Usage gradual decline",
      "severity": 3,
      "evidence": "Session depth declining 4 consecutive weeks, now 22% below 90-day baseline",
      "first_detected": "2026-02-15",
      "source": "bi-usage-monitor"
    },
    {
      "signal": "Champion departure",
      "severity" 
       
       
       
    
  
   
   
   
   

Step 6: Suppress Duplicates

Do not re-alert on the same signal unless:

• Severity escalates (e.g., gradual decline progresses to a 4th consecutive period)
• A new correlated signal appears on the same account
• 14 days have passed since the last alert with no human acknowledgement

Step 7: Generate Daily Digest

Produce a daily summary for the CSM:

• New alerts since last digest
• Escalated alerts (existing signals that worsened)
• Resolved alerts (signal conditions no longer met)
• Portfolio risk trend (total risk signals this week vs. prior week)

Handoff to Human

Every risk alert surfaces to human for triage. The agent does not act on risk.

Signal Type	Routing	Urgency
Champion departure	Direct alert to CSM + notification to CS leadership	Immediate
Competitive displacement signal	Direct alert to CSM	Immediate
P1 support escalation	Direct alert to CSM	Same day
Health score rapid decline	Direct alert to CSM	Same day
Clustered signals (3+)	Direct alert to CSM + flag for manager review	Same day
Single metric-based signal	Daily digest	Next business day
Adoption plateau	Weekly digest	Weekly

The human decides: investigate, escalate, trigger a save play, monitor, or dismiss. See references/human-decision-guide.md.

Confidence and Limitations

• High confidence for signal detection (binary: the signal is present or it is not)
• Medium confidence for prioritisation (severity weights are defaults -- they need tuning per portfolio based on historical churn correlation)
• Low confidence for causal inference. The agent presents signals and correlations. It does not explain why the customer is at risk. That is human interpretation
• Cannot detect risks that exist only in relationship context (private dissatisfaction, internal political shifts, unvoiced budget concerns)
• Signal clustering amplification assumes signals are independent. If two signals share a root cause (e.g., a product outage causes both usage decline and support spike), the amplification may overstate severity

Dependencies

Required:

• bi-health-score (composite and component scores, trends)
• bi-usage-monitor (pattern alerts)
• CRM API (contact changes, activity data, opportunity stages)
• Support platform API (ticket data, escalations)
• Calendar integration (meeting declines)

Optional but high-value:

• Email integration (no-reply streak detection)
• LinkedIn integration or stakeholder change detection service (champion departure)
• Call transcript integration (competitor mentions)
• Billing system (payment overdue signals)

Downstream consumers:

• bi-account-brief (active risk signals for account context)
• bi-segment-trends (aggregate risk by segment)
• Human triage queue

References

• references/signal-registry.md -- Full signal definitions, detection logic, and tuning guidance
• references/severity-calibration.md -- How to adjust severity weights based on historical churn data
• references/human-decision-guide.md -- How CSMs should triage and respond to risk alerts