| name | ibd-distribution-day-monitor |
| description | Detect IBD-style Distribution Days for QQQ/SPY (close down at least 0.2% on higher volume), track 25-session expiration and 5% invalidation, count d5/d15/d25 clusters, classify market risk (NORMAL/CAUTION/HIGH/SEVERE), and emit TQQQ/QQQ exposure recommendations. Use after market close, before TQQQ exposure changes, or as input to FTD/market-state frameworks. Does not execute trades. |
IBD Distribution Day Monitor
Purpose
Detect IBD-style Distribution Days for major market ETFs (QQQ as Nasdaq proxy, SPY as S&P 500 proxy) and produce a daily market deterioration signal plus a TQQQ/QQQ exposure recommendation. Designed for post-market review.
When to Use
Invoke this skill:
- Daily after the US market close.
- Before increasing TQQQ exposure or rebalancing leveraged positions.
- When evaluating whether an uptrend is becoming vulnerable to a correction.
- As an upstream input to FTD (Follow-Through Day) detection or other market-state frameworks.
Do NOT use this skill to:
- Execute trades or modify orders.
- Generate discretionary market predictions outside of the IBD ruleset.
Inputs
- Symbols (default: QQQ, SPY) and lookback (default 80 trading sessions).
- Optional
--as-of YYYY-MM-DD for backtesting against a historical session.
- Strategy context: instrument (TQQQ or QQQ), current exposure %, base trailing stop %.
- FMP API key via
--api-key, config.data.api_key, or FMP_API_KEY env var (in that priority order).
Core Rules
A Distribution Day is detected when:
- Today's close is at least 0.2% below yesterday's close.
- Today's volume is greater than yesterday's volume.
A Distribution Day is removed from the active count when either:
- More than 25 trading sessions have elapsed since the DD.
- The index has gained 5% from the DD close (using post-DD high by default; configurable to close-source).
Today's DD is never invalidated immediately because there are no post-DD sessions to evaluate the 5% gain against.
Counting Conventions
d5_count / d15_count / d25_count count active records with age_sessions <= N.- This means N+1 sessions are inspected (age 0..N inclusive). Reports therefore say "within N elapsed sessions" rather than "直近 N 取引日" to avoid ambiguity.
Risk Classification
| Risk | Trigger |
|---|
| NORMAL | d25 <= 2 |
| CAUTION | d25 >= 3 |
| HIGH | d25 >= 5 OR d15 >= 3 OR d5 >= 2 |
| SEVERE | d25 >= 6 OR d15 >= 4 OR (market_below_21ema_or_50ma AND d25 >= 5) |
When both QQQ and SPY are loaded, QQQ-weighted overall logic applies (TQQQ-aware): a single SEVERE escalates to SEVERE; QQQ HIGH escalates to overall HIGH; QQQ NORMAL + SPY HIGH still escalates to HIGH (broad-market spillover).
TQQQ Exposure Policy
| Risk | Action | Target Exposure | Trailing Stop |
|---|
| NORMAL | HOLD_OR_FOLLOW_BASE_STRATEGY | 100% | base |
| CAUTION | AVOID_NEW_ADDS | 75% | min(base, 7%) |
| HIGH | REDUCE_EXPOSURE | 50% | min(base, 5%) |
| SEVERE | CLOSE_TQQQ_OR_HEDGE | 25% | min(base, 3%) |
QQQ uses a less aggressive policy (HIGH=75%, SEVERE=50%) since it lacks 3x leverage.
Workflow
- Load OHLCV for the configured symbols via FMP (
get_historical_prices).
- Validate data quality; record skipped sessions in audit.
- Rebase via
prepare_effective_history so effective_history[0] is the evaluation session.
- Detect raw Distribution Days; enrich with
high_since, invalidation event, and status.
- Count
d5 / d15 / d25 active records.
- Compute 21EMA and 50SMA filters; flag
market_below_21ema_or_50ma (None if data insufficient).
- Classify each index, then combine using QQQ-weighted policy.
- Generate portfolio action for the configured instrument.
- Write JSON + Markdown reports to
--output-dir with API keys redacted.
Outputs
Saved to reports/ (or --output-dir):
ibd_distribution_day_monitor_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.jsonibd_distribution_day_monitor_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.md
JSON is UTF-8 with ensure_ascii=False (Japanese explanations preserved). Sensitive keys (api_key, fmp_api_key, token, etc.) are redacted automatically.
Operating Principles
- Do not override the IBD rule definitions unless
config/default.yaml is changed deliberately.
- Always explain which dates contributed to the active count.
- Treat missing or unreliable volume data as a warning (audit_flag), not as a Distribution Day.
- Do not place trades. The portfolio action is a risk-management suggestion, not an execution instruction.
CLI
python3 skills/ibd-distribution-day-monitor/scripts/ibd_monitor.py \
--symbols QQQ,SPY \
--lookback-days 80 \
--instrument TQQQ \
--current-exposure 100 \
--base-trailing-stop 10 \
--output-dir reports/
API Requirements
FMP API key required. Free tier (250 calls/day) is sufficient for daily QQQ + SPY runs.
Related Skills
ftd-detector: Bottom confirmation via Follow-Through Days (counterpart of this top-side signal).market-top-detector: Composite 0-100 top probability score using O'Neil distribution + other components.position-sizer: Convert risk-management recommendations into share counts.
