research-playbook

name	research-playbook
description	How to use the search_web tool well when grounding a forecast in recent news — phrase cutoff-aware queries, decide what is worth searching for, and weigh sources. Load this before your first search_web call. No scripts.

Research playbook

A short guide to getting real signal out of search_web. This is a starter skill — extend it with the queries and sources that work for your problem.

The one rule that matters

Always pass cutoff_date equal to the as_of date in your payload. It is the temporal fence that keeps post-origin information out of a historical forecast. A forecast that "knew" what happened after as_of is not a forecast.

search_web runs an independent verifier on every result and returns [SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED] instead of content it couldn't confirm as pre-cutoff. Treat that as no verified news for the query — proceed on your other signals and say so, never filling the gap from your own background knowledge.

How to search

• Search before you forecast, not after. Gather context first, then reason.
• One topic per query. Several focused queries beat one broad one. Stop when new queries stop returning new facts.
• Ask for the present state, not a prediction. "current OPEC+ production policy" returns facts; "will oil go up" returns noise.
• Weigh sources. Prefer primary releases and major outlets; treat a single blog or forum post as a lead to confirm, not a fact.

Domain focus (edit this for your use case)

For WTI crude, the signals that move price: OPEC+ supply decisions, Persian Gulf / shipping-lane geopolitical risk, US SPR and inventory data, USD strength, and global demand outlook. Search for the current state of these, then let the price history tell you the baseline.

Room to grow

• Add a curated list of go-to sources for your domain.
• Track which queries paid off and prune the ones that didn't.
• Add a references/ file with example high-signal searches.