research-playbook

name	research-playbook
description	How to use the search_web tool well when grounding a forecast in recent news — phrase cutoff-aware queries, decide what is worth searching for, and weigh sources. Load this before your first search_web call. No scripts.

Research playbook

A short guide to getting real signal out of search_web. This is a starter skill — extend it with the queries and sources that work for your problem.

The one rule that matters

Always pass cutoff_date equal to the as_of date in your payload. It is the temporal fence that keeps post-origin information out of a historical forecast. A forecast that "knew" what happened after as_of is not a forecast.

search_web runs an independent verifier on every result and returns [SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED] instead of content it couldn't confirm as pre-cutoff. Treat that as no verified news for the query — proceed on your other signals and say so, never filling the gap from your own background knowledge.

How to search

• Search before you forecast, not after. Gather context first, then reason.
• One topic per query. Several focused queries beat one broad one. Stop when new queries stop returning new facts.
• Ask for the present state, not a prediction. "current OPEC+ production policy" returns facts; "will oil go up" returns noise.
• Weigh sources. Prefer primary releases and major outlets; treat a single blog or forum post as a lead to confirm, not a fact.

Domain focus (edit this for your use case)

For S&P 500 returns, the signals: the rate path and Fed guidance, recent inflation and jobs prints, the VIX and credit spreads, earnings-season tone, and major geopolitical or policy shocks. Search for the current state of these, then remember returns are close to a random walk — be humble about direction.

Room to grow

• Add a curated list of go-to sources for your domain.
• Track which queries paid off and prune the ones that didn't.
• Add a references/ file with example high-signal searches.