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Use this Skill for political survey analysis: complex sampling with weights, ANES/CCES/ESS data loading, weighted logit/ordered logit, and cross-national equivalence testing.
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SKILL.md 표시 중
| name | survey-analysis-polisci |
| description | Use this Skill for political survey analysis: complex sampling with weights, ANES/CCES/ESS data loading, weighted logit/ordered logit, and cross-national equivalence testing. |
| tags | ["political-science","survey-analysis","complex-sampling","ANES","ESS","weighted"] |
| version | 1.0.0 |
| authors | [{"name":"awesome-rosetta-skills contributors","github":"@xjtulyc"}] |
| license | MIT |
| platforms | ["claude-code","codex","gemini-cli","cursor"] |
| dependencies | ["pandas>=1.5","statsmodels>=0.14","scipy>=1.9","numpy>=1.23","matplotlib>=3.6"] |
| last_updated | 2026-03-18 |
| status | stable |
Use this skill when you need to:
This skill is not a replacement for dedicated survey software (Stata svy, R survey package).
It provides Python implementations suitable for reproducible research workflows.
Political surveys rarely use simple random sampling. The ANES, for example, uses a stratified multi-stage area probability sample. Ignoring the complex design produces understated standard errors and invalid inference. Three design features matter:
| Feature | Effect if ignored |
|---|---|
| Probability weights | Biased point estimates |
| Stratification | Overestimated standard errors |
| Clustering (PSU) | Underestimated standard errors |
Design-based vs. model-based SE: Design-based inference treats the finite population as fixed and the sample selection as random. Model-based inference conditions on the sample and assumes a data-generating process. For descriptive inference about populations, design-based SE is preferred.
ANES structure: Each respondent has a weight variable (e.g., V201617x in 2020 ANES). The
pre-election and post-election waves have separate weights. Weights sum to the target population
(eligible voters or adult citizens).
ESS structure: Multi-country survey with a design weight (dweight) correcting for unequal
selection probabilities within countries, and a post-stratification weight (pspwght). For
cross-national analysis, use pweight (population size weight) to make country samples
proportional to national populations.
Raking (iterative proportional fitting): When post-stratification requires simultaneous calibration on multiple marginal distributions (age × gender × education), raking iterates through each marginal until convergence. The resulting weights satisfy all marginal totals simultaneously.
Ordered logit for Likert outcomes: Survey items often use 5- or 7-point scales. OLS treats the ordinal scale as metric; ordered logit respects the ordinal nature and estimates cut-points between categories.
Measurement equivalence across countries proceeds in steps:
pip install pandas>=1.5 statsmodels>=0.14 scipy>=1.9 numpy>=1.23 matplotlib>=3.6
For ANES data, download the .dta (Stata) or .sav (SPSS) file from
https://electionstudies.org/data-center/ and convert with pandas.read_stata or
pyreadstat. For ESS, download from https://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/data/.
Store file paths in environment variables to avoid hardcoding paths.
export ANES_PATH="/data/anes_timeseries_2020.dta"
export ESS_PATH="/data/ESS10.dta"
import os
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import statsmodels.api as sm
import statsmodels.formula.api as smf
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import matplotlib.ticker as mticker
from scipy import stats
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", category=FutureWarning)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# 1. Weighted Frequency Tables
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def weighted_crosstab(
df: pd.DataFrame,
row_var: str,
col_var: str,
weight_var: str,
normalize: str = "row",
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""
Compute a weighted cross-tabulation.
Parameters
----------
df : pd.DataFrame
row_var : str
Row variable name.
col_var : str
Column variable name.
weight_var : str
Survey weight column.
normalize : str
'row', 'col', or 'all' — passed to pd.crosstab.
Returns
-------
pd.DataFrame
Weighted percentage table.
"""
tab = pd.crosstab(
df[row_var],
df[col_var],
values=df[weight_var],
aggfunc="sum",
normalize=normalize,
)
return (tab * 100).round(1)
def weighted_mean(series: pd.Series, weights: pd.Series) -> float:
"""Compute weighted mean, ignoring NaN in either series."""
mask = series.notna() & weights.notna()
return np.average(series[mask], weights=weights[mask])
def weighted_summary(
df: pd.DataFrame, var: str, weight_var: str, group_var: str | None = None
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""
Weighted mean and std by optional group.
Returns
-------
pd.DataFrame with columns: group (optional), mean, std, n_eff
"""
def _stats(sub: pd.DataFrame) -> dict:
w = sub[weight_var].fillna(0)
y = sub[var]
mask = y.notna() & (w > 0)
w, y = w[mask], y[mask]
if len(w) == 0:
return {"mean": np.nan, "std": np.nan, "n_eff": 0}
mu = np.average(y, weights=w)
var_w = np.average((y - mu) ** 2, weights=w)
n_eff = w.sum() ** 2 / (w ** 2).sum()
return {"mean": round(mu, 4), "std": round(var_w ** 0.5, 4), "n_eff": round(n_eff)}
if group_var is None:
return pd.DataFrame([_stats(df)])
return df.groupby(group_var).apply(_stats).apply(pd.Series).reset_index()
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# 2. Weighted Logit with Survey Weights
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def weighted_logit(
df: pd.DataFrame,
outcome: str,
predictors: list[str],
weight_var: str,
add_constant: bool = True,
) -> sm.regression.linear_model.RegressionResultsWrapper:
"""
Estimate a logit model using frequency weights as an approximation
to probability-weighted MLE.
Parameters
----------
df : pd.DataFrame
outcome : str
Binary (0/1) dependent variable.
predictors : list of str
weight_var : str
Survey weight column. Weights are scaled to sum to N (sample size)
to preserve degrees of freedom.
add_constant : bool
Whether to add an intercept.
Returns
-------
statsmodels GLMResultsWrapper
"""
sub = df[[outcome] + predictors + [weight_var]].dropna()
y = sub[outcome]
X = sub[predictors]
if add_constant:
X = sm.add_constant(X)
# Scale weights to sum to sample size
w = sub[weight_var]
w_scaled = w / w.mean()
model = sm.GLM(
y,
X,
family=sm.families.Binomial(),
freq_weights=w_scaled,
)
result = model.fit()
return result
def logit_coeff_table(result) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""
Extract a clean coefficient table with odds ratios.
Returns
-------
pd.DataFrame with columns: coef, se, z, p, OR, OR_lower, OR_upper
"""
tbl = pd.DataFrame({
"coef": result.params,
"se": result.bse,
"z": result.tvalues,
"p": result.pvalues,
})
tbl["OR"] = np.exp(tbl["coef"])
tbl["OR_lower"] = np.exp(tbl["coef"] - 1.96 * tbl["se"])
tbl["OR_upper"] = np.exp(tbl["coef"] + 1.96 * tbl["se"])
return tbl.round(4)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# 3. Ordered Logit for Likert Outcomes
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def ordered_logit(
df: pd.DataFrame,
outcome: str,
predictors: list[str],
weight_var: str | None = None,
) -> object:
"""
Fit an ordered logit (proportional odds) model via statsmodels.
Parameters
----------
outcome : str
Ordinal outcome (integer-coded Likert scale).
predictors : list of str
weight_var : str, optional
If provided, use freq_weights.
Returns
-------
statsmodels OrderedModel result
"""
from statsmodels.miscmodels.ordinal_model import OrderedModel
sub = df[[outcome] + predictors + ([weight_var] if weight_var else [])].dropna()
y = sub[outcome].astype(int)
X = sub[predictors]
freq_w = sub[weight_var] / sub[weight_var].mean() if weight_var else None
om = OrderedModel(y, X, distr="logit")
result = om.fit(method="bfgs", disp=False)
return result
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# 4. Post-stratification Raking
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def rake_weights(
df: pd.DataFrame,
initial_weight_col: str,
targets: dict[str, dict],
max_iter: int = 50,
tol: float = 1e-6,
) -> pd.Series:
"""
Iterative proportional fitting (raking) to calibrate survey weights.
Parameters
----------
df : pd.DataFrame
initial_weight_col : str
Starting weights (e.g., design weights).
targets : dict
{variable_name: {category_value: target_proportion, ...}}
Example: {'age_group': {1: 0.20, 2: 0.35, 3: 0.30, 4: 0.15}}
max_iter : int
Maximum raking iterations.
tol : float
Convergence tolerance (max relative change in weights).
Returns
-------
pd.Series
Calibrated weights, same index as df.
"""
weights = df[initial_weight_col].copy().astype(float)
for iteration in range(max_iter):
max_change = 0.0
for var, target_props in targets.items():
for cat, target_prop in target_props.items():
mask = df[var] == cat
current_share = weights[mask].sum() / weights.sum()
if current_share > 0:
adjustment = target_prop / current_share
old_w = weights[mask].copy()
weights[mask] *= adjustment
change = np.abs(weights[mask] - old_w).max() / (old_w.max() + 1e-12)
max_change = max(max_change, change)
if max_change < tol:
print(f"Raking converged in {iteration + 1} iterations.")
break
else:
print(f"Warning: raking did not converge after {max_iter} iterations.")
# Normalize to original total
weights *= df[initial_weight_col].sum() / weights.sum()
return weights
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# 5. Rao-Scott Chi-Square Adjustment
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def rao_scott_chisq(observed: np.ndarray, weights: np.ndarray) -> dict:
"""
First-order Rao-Scott chi-square adjustment for design effect.
Parameters
----------
observed : np.ndarray
2D contingency table (raw counts).
weights : np.ndarray
1D array of weights for each respondent in the table.
Returns
-------
dict with keys: chisq_rs, df, pvalue, deff
"""
from scipy.stats import chi2
# Unweighted Pearson chi-sq
row_totals = observed.sum(axis=1)
col_totals = observed.sum(axis=0)
total = observed.sum()
expected = np.outer(row_totals, col_totals) / total
chisq_pearson = ((observed - expected) ** 2 / expected).sum()
# Design effect approximation
n = weights.sum()
deff = (weights ** 2).sum() * n / (weights.sum() ** 2)
chisq_rs = chisq_pearson / deff
df = (observed.shape[0] - 1) * (observed.shape[1] - 1)
pvalue = 1 - chi2.cdf(chisq_rs, df)
return {"chisq_rs": round(chisq_rs, 4), "df": df, "pvalue": round(pvalue, 4), "deff": round(deff, 4)}
The ESS runs every two years across 20+ European countries. Country-level weights (pspwght)
correct for within-country stratification and non-response. The cross-national weight (pweight)
makes country sample sizes proportional to population size, enabling continent-wide estimates.
import os
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import statsmodels.api as sm
def load_ess(path: str, variables: list[str], countries: list[str] | None = None) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""
Load ESS data from Stata .dta file.
Parameters
----------
path : str
Path to ESS .dta file.
variables : list of str
Variables to retain plus essential columns.
countries : list of str, optional
Filter by cntry (ISO2 country code).
Returns
-------
pd.DataFrame
"""
essential = ["cntry", "idno", "dweight", "pspwght", "pweight"]
keep = list(set(essential + variables))
df = pd.read_stata(path, columns=[c for c in keep], convert_categoricals=False)
if countries:
df = df[df["cntry"].isin(countries)]
# Combined analysis weight = pspwght * pweight
df["analysis_weight"] = df["pspwght"] * df["pweight"]
return df
def ess_country_means(
df: pd.DataFrame, var: str, weight_col: str = "pspwght"
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Compute weighted country means for a variable."""
results = []
for country, grp in df.groupby("cntry"):
w = grp[weight_col]
y = grp[var]
mask = y.notna() & w.notna() & (w > 0)
if mask.sum() < 10:
continue
mu = np.average(y[mask], weights=w[mask])
n = mask.sum()
se = y[mask].std() / np.sqrt(n)
results.append({"country": country, "mean": mu, "se": se, "n": n})
return pd.DataFrame(results).sort_values("mean", ascending=False)
def plot_country_means(means_df: pd.DataFrame, var_label: str, save_path: str | None = None):
"""Horizontal bar chart of country-level weighted means with 95% CI."""
df = means_df.sort_values("mean")
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(9, max(5, len(df) * 0.35)))
y_pos = range(len(df))
ax.barh(y_pos, df["mean"], xerr=1.96 * df["se"], align="center",
color="#4c72b0", ecolor="#c44e52", capsize=3, alpha=0.85)
ax.set_yticks(list(y_pos))
ax.set_yticklabels(df["country"].tolist())
ax.set_xlabel(var_label)
ax.set_title(f"Country-Level Weighted Means: {var_label}")
ax.grid(True, axis="x", alpha=0.3)
plt.tight_layout()
if save_path:
fig.savefig(save_path, dpi=150)
return fig
# Example: Trust in parliament across ESS Round 10 countries
ESS_PATH = os.environ.get("ESS_PATH", "ESS10.dta")
# df_ess = load_ess(ESS_PATH, variables=["trstprl", "trstplt", "age", "eduyrs", "gndr"])
# means = ess_country_means(df_ess, "trstprl")
# print(means.head(10).to_string(index=False))
# plot_country_means(means, "Trust in Parliament (0-10)", save_path="trust_parliament.png")
# Raking example: calibrate ANES weights to Census targets
rake_targets = {
"age_group": {1: 0.15, 2: 0.20, 3: 0.25, 4: 0.22, 5: 0.18},
"gender": {1: 0.49, 2: 0.51},
"educ3": {1: 0.28, 2: 0.38, 3: 0.34},
}
# Assuming df_anes has columns: age_group, gender, educ3, base_weight
# df_anes["raked_weight"] = rake_weights(df_anes, "base_weight", rake_targets)
# Verify margins after raking:
# for var, targets in rake_targets.items():
# w = df_anes["raked_weight"]
# for cat, tgt in targets.items():
# actual = w[df_anes[var] == cat].sum() / w.sum()
# print(f"{var}={cat}: target={tgt:.3f}, actual={actual:.3f}")
| Problem | Cause | Solution |
|---|---|---|
KeyError on weight variable | Different weight names across ANES years | Inspect codebook; 2020 ANES pre-election weight is V201617x |
| Raking does not converge | Conflicting marginal targets or zero cells | Check that targets sum to 1.0 per variable; increase max_iter |
OrderedModel fails | Outcome not integer-coded | Cast with .astype(int) after mapping categories |
| Design effect >> 3 | High clustering in PSUs | Consider explicit cluster SE using cov_kwds={'groups': psu_col} |
ESS pweight missing | Country not in cross-national file | Download the integrated ESS file, not country-specific files |
| Weighted logit perfect separation | Sparse cells after weighting | Regularize with alpha in fit_regularized() or collapse categories |
import os
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import statsmodels.api as sm
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
ANES_PATH = os.environ.get("ANES_PATH", "anes_timeseries_2020.dta")
# --- Load ANES 2020 (post-election weight) -----------------------------------
# Key variables: V202072 (presidential vote), V201600 (gender), V201511x (age),
# V201200 (party ID 7-pt), V201617x (weight)
VARS = ["V202072", "V201600", "V201511x", "V201200", "V201617x"]
# df = pd.read_stata(ANES_PATH, columns=VARS, convert_categoricals=False)
# Simulate for demonstration
rng = np.random.default_rng(42)
n = 3000
df = pd.DataFrame({
"vote_biden": rng.binomial(1, 0.52, n),
"female": rng.binomial(1, 0.52, n),
"age": rng.integers(18, 85, n),
"partyid": rng.integers(1, 8, n), # 1=strong Dem, 7=strong Rep
"weight": np.abs(rng.normal(1.0, 0.3, n)) + 0.01,
})
# Standardize continuous predictors
df["age_std"] = (df["age"] - df["age"].mean()) / df["age"].std()
df["pid_centered"] = df["partyid"] - 4 # center on independent (4)
predictors = ["female", "age_std", "pid_centered"]
result = weighted_logit(df, outcome="vote_biden", predictors=predictors, weight_var="weight")
coeff_tbl = logit_coeff_table(result)
print("=== Weighted Logit: Vote for Biden ===")
print(coeff_tbl.to_string())
# Forest plot of odds ratios
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8, 4))
labels = coeff_tbl.index[1:] # skip intercept
ors = coeff_tbl.loc[labels, "OR"]
lo = coeff_tbl.loc[labels, "OR_lower"]
hi = coeff_tbl.loc[labels, "OR_upper"]
y_pos = range(len(labels))
ax.errorbar(ors, list(y_pos), xerr=[ors - lo, hi - ors],
fmt="o", color="#2c7bb6", ecolor="#333333", capsize=4, markersize=8)
ax.axvline(1.0, color="red", linestyle="--", linewidth=1)
ax.set_yticks(list(y_pos))
ax.set_yticklabels(labels.tolist())
ax.set_xlabel("Odds Ratio (95% CI)")
ax.set_title("Weighted Logit: Predictors of Biden Vote (ANES 2020 simulation)")
ax.grid(True, axis="x", alpha=0.3)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig("anes_logit_or_plot.png", dpi=150)
plt.show()
print("\nModel AIC:", round(result.aic, 2))
print("Pseudo R² (McFadden):", round(1 - result.llf / result.llnull, 4))
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
rng = np.random.default_rng(99)
n = 2000
# Simulate a survey with convenience sample (over-represents educated)
df_survey = pd.DataFrame({
"respondent_id": range(n),
"age_group": rng.choice([1, 2, 3, 4, 5], n, p=[0.10, 0.22, 0.30, 0.25, 0.13]),
"gender": rng.choice([1, 2], n, p=[0.45, 0.55]),
"educ3": rng.choice([1, 2, 3], n, p=[0.18, 0.35, 0.47]),
"support_policy": rng.normal(5, 2, n).clip(1, 10),
"base_weight": np.ones(n),
})
census_targets = {
"age_group": {1: 0.15, 2: 0.20, 3: 0.25, 4: 0.22, 5: 0.18},
"gender": {1: 0.49, 2: 0.51},
"educ3": {1: 0.28, 2: 0.38, 3: 0.34},
}
df_survey["raked_weight"] = rake_weights(df_survey, "base_weight", census_targets)
# Verify calibration
print("=== Calibration Check ===")
for var, targets in census_targets.items():
print(f"\n{var}:")
for cat, tgt in targets.items():
unw = (df_survey[var] == cat).mean()
wtd = df_survey.loc[df_survey[var] == cat, "raked_weight"].sum() / df_survey["raked_weight"].sum()
print(f" cat={cat}: unweighted={unw:.3f}, raked={wtd:.3f}, target={tgt:.3f}")
# Compare weighted vs unweighted mean of outcome
unw_mean = df_survey["support_policy"].mean()
wtd_mean = weighted_mean(df_survey["support_policy"], df_survey["raked_weight"])
print(f"\nUnweighted mean support: {unw_mean:.3f}")
print(f"Raked mean support: {wtd_mean:.3f}")
# Weight distribution
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(7, 4))
ax.hist(df_survey["raked_weight"], bins=40, color="#4c72b0", edgecolor="white", alpha=0.8)
ax.axvline(1.0, color="red", linestyle="--", label="Equal weight")
ax.set_xlabel("Raked Weight")
ax.set_ylabel("Frequency")
ax.set_title("Distribution of Post-Stratification Weights After Raking")
ax.legend()
plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig("raked_weight_distribution.png", dpi=150)
plt.show()
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# Simulate ESS-style multi-country data
# Variable: confidence in parliament (0-10 scale, treated as ordinal 0-3 after collapse)
rng = np.random.default_rng(7)
n_per_country = 800
countries = ["DE", "SE", "FR", "PL", "HU", "ES"]
frames = []
for i, cntry in enumerate(countries):
# Different intercept per country to create variation
shift = (i - 2) * 0.4
df_c = pd.DataFrame({
"cntry": cntry,
"trust_parl": np.clip(
rng.integers(0, 11, n_per_country) + rng.integers(-1, 2, n_per_country), 0, 10
),
"age": rng.integers(18, 80, n_per_country),
"eduyrs": rng.integers(7, 21, n_per_country),
"female": rng.binomial(1, 0.51, n_per_country),
"pspwght": np.abs(rng.normal(1.0, 0.25, n_per_country)) + 0.1,
})
df_c["trust_cat"] = pd.cut(df_c["trust_parl"], bins=[-1, 2, 5, 7, 10],
labels=[0, 1, 2, 3]).astype(int)
frames.append(df_c)
df_ess_sim = pd.concat(frames, ignore_index=True)
# Standardize predictors
df_ess_sim["age_std"] = (df_ess_sim["age"] - df_ess_sim["age"].mean()) / df_ess_sim["age"].std()
df_ess_sim["edu_std"] = (df_ess_sim["eduyrs"] - df_ess_sim["eduyrs"].mean()) / df_ess_sim["eduyrs"].std()
# Pooled ordered logit (all countries)
ol_result = ordered_logit(
df_ess_sim,
outcome="trust_cat",
predictors=["age_std", "edu_std", "female"],
weight_var="pspwght",
)
print("=== Ordered Logit: Trust in Parliament ===")
print(ol_result.summary())
# Country-level weighted means
means_df = pd.DataFrame([
{
"country": cntry,
"mean_trust": weighted_mean(
grp["trust_parl"], grp["pspwght"]
),
"n": len(grp),
}
for cntry, grp in df_ess_sim.groupby("cntry")
]).sort_values("mean_trust", ascending=True)
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8, 5))
colors = ["#d73027" if m < 4 else "#4575b4" for m in means_df["mean_trust"]]
ax.barh(means_df["country"], means_df["mean_trust"], color=colors, alpha=0.85)
ax.axvline(5.0, color="gray", linestyle="--", label="Midpoint (5)")
ax.set_xlabel("Weighted Mean Trust in Parliament (0-10)")
ax.set_title("Trust in Parliament by Country — ESS Simulation")
ax.legend()
ax.grid(True, axis="x", alpha=0.3)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig("ess_trust_country.png", dpi=150)
plt.show()
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