macro-calendar

name	macro-calendar
description	Macro event calendar and portfolio impact pre-brief. Fetches upcoming central bank decisions, inflation releases, GDP data, earnings seasons, and geopolitical events. For each event, estimates the likely portfolio impact — which holdings are most exposed, what scenarios are priced in, and what to watch for.

Macro Calendar

Trigger phrases

• "Bu hafta hangi makro olaylar var?"
• "Fed toplantısı portföyümü nasıl etkiler?"
• "TCMB kararı öncesi portföy analizi"
• "Upcoming macro events this month"
• "What macro events should I watch for my portfolio?"
• "ENFLASYON verisi ne zaman açıklanıyor?"

Phases

Phase 1 — Event calendar fetch

WebSearch for the next 4 weeks:

Central bank meetings:

• TCMB (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası) — next rate decision date + consensus
• Federal Reserve (FOMC) — next meeting date + current fed funds futures pricing
• ECB — next meeting + market expectations
• Bank of England, Bank of Japan (if portfolio has EUR/GBP/JPY exposure)

Macro data releases:

• Turkey: CPI (TÜFE), PPI (ÜFE), GDP, current account, unemployment
• US: CPI, PPI, PCE, non-farm payrolls, GDP, retail sales, ISM
• Eurozone: CPI flash, GDP, PMI
• China: PMI, industrial production, retail sales (if EM exposure)

Earnings season:

• For each equity holding: next earnings date (WebSearch: "[ticker] earnings date")
• Analyst EPS consensus (WebSearch: "[ticker] earnings estimate")

Geopolitical / regulatory:

• Upcoming elections (Turkey, US, EU member states)
• Sanctions announcements
• Trade policy events
• BIST-specific: BIST index rebalancing dates, dividend season (April-June in Turkey)

Phase 2 — Event classification

For each event, classify:

Event	Date	Market sensitivity	Portfolio exposure	Surprise potential
FOMC rate decision		HIGH	USD assets, NVDA, GOOGL	Medium
Turkey CPI		HIGH	TRY assets, BIST	Medium
NVDA earnings		HIGH	NVDA (direct)	High
...

Sensitivity tiers:

• 🔴 HIGH: event directly reprices holdings (earnings, rate decisions)
• 🟡 MEDIUM: indirect macro impact (CPI, GDP on sentiment)
• 🟢 LOW: background noise (PMI, minor data)

Phase 3 — Per-holding event exposure

Map each holding to its top-3 macro sensitivities:

Holding	Top event 1	Impact	Top event 2	Impact
NVDA	FOMC (+100bps = -8% est.)	Fed rate change	US CPI	Tech sentiment
TUPRS	TCMB decision	TRY/USD rate	Brent oil	Input cost
GRAM ALTIN	Real rates	Inversely correlated	USD index	Inverse
USD CASH	TCMB	TRY devaluation	FOMC	USD strength

Phase 4 — Scenario analysis per event

For the 2-3 highest-impact upcoming events, build a mini scenario table:

Example: TCMB rate decision

Scenario	Probability	TRY impact	BIST impact	Portfolio impact
Hold (expected)	55%	Flat	Flat	~0%
Cut 25bps (dovish surprise)	30%	-2%	+2%	+0.5% (net)
Hike 25bps (hawkish surprise)	15%	+3%	-3%	-0.8% (net)

Derive probabilities from: WebSearch (analyst surveys, market pricing) + recent TCMB rhetoric.

Example: NVDA earnings

Scenario	Revenue vs est	EPS vs est	Expected reaction
Beat & raise	+5%	+10%	+8-12%
In-line	0%	0%	±2%
Miss	-5%	-8%	-10-15%

Phase 5 — Risk calendar heat map (text-based)

Week 1 (Jun 23-27):
  Mon:  🟢 EU PMI Flash
  Tue:  🔴 US Consumer Confidence
  Wed:  🔴 FOMC minutes
  Thu:  🟡 Turkey trade balance
  Fri:  🔴 US PCE inflation ← MOST IMPORTANT THIS WEEK

Week 2 (Jun 30 - Jul 4):
  Mon:  🟡 Turkey CPI (TÜFE)
  Tue:  🔴 NVDA earnings (after close)
  ...

Phase 6 — Pre-event positioning checklist

For each HIGH-sensitivity event, suggest:

1. What to watch: the exact number/language that moves markets
2. What's priced in: current market expectation (consensus)
3. Tail risk: the scenario that's NOT priced in
4. Portfolio action: hedge / reduce / hold / add on weakness
5. Post-event plan: what price level confirms the move is real

Phase 7 — Output

Write output/macro-calendar-<YYYYMMDD>.md:

# Macro Calendar — Week of <date>

## High-Impact Events (next 4 weeks)
## Per-Holding Event Exposure
## Key Event Scenarios
## Risk Calendar Heat Map
## Pre-Event Positioning Checklist
## Watch-List: Key Levels to Monitor

Update this report weekly — stale macro calendars are worse than none.

Disclaimer: Market reactions to macro events are unpredictable. Consensus expectations are already priced in; only surprises move markets significantly. Not investment advice.