| name | serenity-radar |
| description | Use @aleabitoreddit ("Serenity")'s full mention archive (built by the follow-aleabito skill) to anticipate where her attention is moving and generate candidate ideas in her style. Two modes — (1) RADAR reads the live mention data for attention momentum (which tickers she is heating up on, new entrants, conviction core, theme rotation) via scripts/radar.js; (2) GENERATOR applies her empirically-mined patterns (theme-rotation logic, selection signature, catalyst playbook) to propose her likely next focus. Every candidate is gated through the serenity-method checklist. This is a CANDIDATE GENERATOR + CHECKLIST, never an oracle or buy/sell signal. Trigger on "what is Serenity ramping on / her next pick / aleabito radar / predict her next move / generate ideas like her / 她下一个可能看什么". |
Serenity Radar
A data-driven companion to serenity-method. Where serenity-method teaches how she analyzes, this skill uses her actual 11-month archive (2025-07-02 → present, ~6,120 posts / 750 tickers) to estimate where her attention is going and to generate candidates the way she would.
What this is NOT. Not a predictor, not a buy/sell signal, not "she will pump X next." It is a candidate generator + checklist. A single account is fragile; virality ≠ correctness; her archive has survivorship bias (winners get re-cited, losers fade). Read the Caveats section before using output. Always end with: 仅作信息跟踪，不构成投资建议。
Prerequisites
- The mention archive must exist (the
follow-aleabito skill produces it). Default path: $FOLLOW_ALEABITO_REPORTS_DIR/aleabito-mentions-events.csv (else the workspace reports/).
- Keep it current with
follow-aleabito's incremental fetch (analyze-mentions.js --incremental --resume) before running radar, so signals reflect the latest days.
- For the analytical gate, use the local
serenity-method skill.
Mode 1 — RADAR (data-driven, run this first)
Run the signal extractor:
FOLLOW_ALEABITO_REPORTS_DIR="<reports dir>" node skills/serenity-radar/scripts/radar.js --window 14 --top 20
It prints four signal blocks (see references/signals.md for the exact math):
- 🔥 Heating — tickers whose mention count is accelerating (recent window vs prior window). This is the core "she's ramping attention here" signal.
- 🆕 New entrants — tickers that first appeared within the window. Candidate next focus — she often seeds a name quietly, then ramps.
- 🎯 Conviction watch — high recent volume + sustained + still active. Her core book right now (defended, repeated).
- 🔄 Theme rotation — theme mention-share recent vs prior. Tells you which narrative she is rotating into / out of.
How to read it: a name that is both a New entrant and Heating, in a theme that is rotating up, is the strongest "emerging focus" signal. A Conviction-watch name that is cooling (falling out of Heating) may be maturing toward exit/realization. Cross-check a heating name's recent posts (via follow-aleabito) to confirm it is a genuine thesis, not a one-off reply.
Mode 2 — GENERATOR (pattern-driven, for "her likely next move")
When the user wants ideas she hasn't surfaced yet, apply her empirical patterns (full detail in references/patterns.md). Her behavior is remarkably consistent; the three levers that predict her next focus:
- Move UP the supply chain — from today's hot end-product to the upstream chokepoint that isn't priced. (She went interconnect → laser → InP substrate → red phosphorus.) Ask: what is the bottleneck of the current bottleneck?
- Move EARLIER in the cycle — front-run a dated catalyst (ETF approval, index inclusion, earnings read-through, government filing, M&A). Ask: what catalyst is ~1-2 quarters out that the market hasn't mapped?
- Move SMALLER / less-covered — toward a sub-$3B, designed-in, often FUD-labelled name. Ask: who actually does the work (the subsidiary / upstream supplier), not the headline brand?
Generate 3-5 candidates by running these levers off the current Heating/Conviction themes, then gate each.
The gate (mandatory for every candidate)
A radar signal or generated idea is only a lead. Before presenting it as a thesis, run it through serenity-method (Steps 1-5: chokepoint test → first principles → Buffett quality gate (default unverified) → narrative-vs-fundamentals hygiene → classify as 研究地图 vs 可投资结论). Output should show the candidate and its gate result. Never promote a signal to a recommendation.
Output shape
Language / 语言: respond in the user's language — 中文 by default, English on request. Bilingual labels below.
For each surfaced candidate, give:
- 信号 · Signal — why it surfaced (heating Δ, new entrant since X, conviction core, theme rotating up).
- 她的角度(推测) · Her angle (inferred) — the likely Serenity-style thesis (chokepoint / catalyst / un-priced), clearly marked as inference.
- 闸门结果 · Gate result — the
serenity-method verdict (almost always 研究地图 / research-map, with the specific things to verify).
- 可信度 · Confidence — high/medium/low, with the caveat that drove it down (one-off reply, no fundamentals, single-account risk).
Caveats (read before trusting any output)
- Candidate generator, not oracle. Attention momentum predicts her interest, not price or correctness.
- Survivorship bias. Her archive over-weights names that worked; the radar inherits it. Treat "she ramped X and it ran" as not evidence X will repeat.
- Single-account fragility. One person, one style, one era (a mostly-AI-up-cycle, though it does include the Nov-2025 drawdown where IREN −38% / NBIS −35% — proof she is not infallible and holds through pain).
- Reply noise. A heating name driven by replies (conversation) ≠ a conviction post. Confirm with the source.
- No front-running. This surfaces public attention patterns for research; do not use it to trade ahead of or against anyone, and never emit buy/sell calls.
References
| Need | Read |
|---|
| Her empirical patterns: theme-rotation logic, selection signature, catalyst playbook, conviction tells, track record | references/patterns.md |
| Exact radar math + how to read each signal + data caveats | references/signals.md |
| The analytical gate every candidate must pass | the serenity-method skill |
| Keeping the archive current / pulling raw posts | the follow-aleabito skill |
仅作信息跟踪，不构成投资建议。 / For information tracking only; not investment advice.
