longbridge-ark-analysis

name	longbridge-ark-analysis
description	ARK-style single-stock disruptive-innovation diagnostic. Suitability gate on 4 dimensions (platform fit / innovation revenue / R&D intensity / management vision); if it passes, builds TAM (low/base/high), Wright's-Law cost curve with sourced learning rate, three-scenario 5-year target (Bull/Base/Bear, 15% discount), risks, conditional action frame. Data: Longbridge CLI first, MCP fallback, WebSearch only for TAM / learning rates / industry runway. Runs cross-statement reconciliation BEFORE analysis. Closes with a data-source appendix whose final row is the reconciliation summary. Independent implementation — not affiliated with ARK Invest. Triggers: "木头姐", "ARK", "ARKK", "颠覆式创新", "莱特定律", "TAM", "5年目标价", "情景分析", "AI 与大数据", "自动化与机器人", "能源存储", "基因革命", "区块链与金融科技", "木頭姐", "顛覆式創新", "萊特定律", "5年目標價", "Cathie Wood", "ARK Invest", "disruptive innovation", "Wright's Law", "learning rate", "bull base bear", "scenario analysis".
license	MIT
metadata	{"author":"longbridge","version":"1.0.0","risk_level":"read_only","requires_login":false,"default_install":true,"requires_mcp":false,"tier":"analysis"}

longbridge-ark-analysis

Prompt-only ARK-inspired diagnostic for a single ticker. Runs a suitability gate (must be a disruptive-innovation name), then builds TAM, a Wright's-Law cost-curve note, and a three-scenario 5-year target price. Closes with a mandatory data-source appendix whose final row is a one-line reconciliation summary.

Response language: detect the user's input language (Simplified Chinese / Traditional Chinese / English) and render the entire report — every section heading, label, scenario write-up, narrative, education block, appendix row, reconciliation summary, and disclaimer — in that one language. Do not mix languages within a single output. The output template in references/output.md is shown in English for reference; translate it as a whole into the user's language using the label-translation lookup in that file. The error / source tables inside this SKILL.md remain 3-column because they document what the skill says under each language — that 3-column form is for the skill's reference docs, not for the user-facing report.

Independence statement (mandatory): this skill is an independent implementation inspired by ARK Invest's publicly described methodology. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or representative of ARK Invest or Cathie Wood's actual views or positions. The independence statement must appear in the disclaimer of every output.

When to use

• "用木头姐的方法分析 TSLA" / "用木頭姐的方法分析 TSLA" / "analyze TSLA with the ARK framework"
• "ARK 怎么看 NVDA" / "ARK 怎麼看 NVDA" / "how does ARK see NVDA"
• "PLTR 的颠覆式创新逻辑成立吗" / "PLTR 的顛覆式創新邏輯成立嗎" / "is PLTR a real disruptive-innovation story"
• "帮我算一下 TSLA 5 年的 bull base bear 目标价" / "算一下 TSLA 5 年的 bull base bear 目標價" / "build a 5-year bull/base/bear target on TSLA"
• "AMZN 属于 ARK 的哪个平台" / "AMZN 屬於 ARK 的哪個平台" / "which ARK platform is AMZN in"
• "建行用 ARK 怎么看" / "建行用 ARK 怎麼看" / "would the ARK framework work on CCB" (→ reject + recommend alternative)

For Buffett-style moat analysis → longbridge-buffett-moat-analyzer. For Graham cigar-butt → longbridge-graham-stock-analysis. For pure DCF → longbridge-dcf. For peer benchmarking → longbridge-peer-comparison.

Cognitive frame (do not skip)

ARK's reference is 5-year ownership of disruptive-innovation companies, with three-scenario thinking around a TAM × market-share × margin × multiple terminal value, discounted back. Three things every output must surface:

1. Suitability is a gate, not a soft preference. If the company is not in one of ARK's five innovation platforms (Artificial Intelligence · Robotics & Autonomous Mobility · Energy Storage & EV Adoption · Multiomic Sequencing & AI Drug Discovery · Public Blockchains & Digital Assets — see references/scoring.md §Suitability for the value-chain decomposition into upstream / core / downstream / adjacent tiers, and the convergence themes), reject and recommend an alternative method — do not produce a "for reference" ARK report on a bank, oil major, or consumer staple. A company qualifies if its revenue depends materially on any tier of a platform (upstream / core / downstream / adjacent) — not only on being the platform's headline name.
2. 5-year predictions are wide ranges, not point estimates. TAM and market share are deeply uncertain. The output always shows three scenarios (Bull / Base / Bear) with explicit assumptions; never collapse them to a single confident number, and never present the weighted target price as a forecast — call it a model-derived expectation.
3. Many disruptors have short history — analyse them anyway, on forward inputs. A large share of ARK-style names (RIVN, RXRX, IONQ, BEAM, NTLA, COIN post-pivot, PLTR's commercial-AI era) have 1–3 fiscal years of public history and live almost entirely in the forward thesis. The skill enters Young-company mode (see references/scoring.md §Young-company mode) and explicitly anchors on forward consensus, cash runway, dilution path, capacity roadmap, regulatory milestones, and customer pipeline — not on a backward 5-year operating-leverage curve. Short history alone is not a rejection. Reject reason C is reserved for genuinely pre-revenue names.

Three failure modes the user must be able to distinguish:

• "Right platform, wrong company" → platform fit strong but innovation revenue < 20% or no quantified management vision → ❌ reject; recommend a method that fits the actual revenue mix.
• "Right company, framework limit (pre-revenue)" → fits the platform but truly no commercial revenue base → ❌ reject (reason C); recommend an early-stage framework.
• "Right company, short history but commercial" → fits the platform, has commercial revenue, but < 3 yrs of public scale history → ✅ enter Young-company mode, do not reject.

Workflow

1. Resolve symbol to <CODE>.<MARKET> (e.g. TSLA.US, 00700.HK, 300750.SZ).
2. Sector triage (decides mode + reject branch):
   • Traditional industry (bank / insurance / oil / real estate / staples / utilities not in energy-transition) → halt with reject reason A — Traditional industry (see references/scoring.md §Reject reasons).
   • Being-disrupted incumbent (e.g. ICE auto, fossil-fuel major, legacy media against streaming) → halt with reason B — Being disrupted.
   • Mature tech with disruption already priced in (e.g. mature consumer electronics supply chain) → halt with reason D — Disruption premium already realised.
   • Truly pre-revenue (no commercial product/service revenue, or revenue is < ~$10M annualised with no commercial path in 18 months) → halt with reason C — Data basis insufficient.
   • Has commercial revenue but short public history (listed < 3 fiscal years OR < 3 yrs of scale revenue OR recent business-model pivot OR post-SPAC < 12 months) → enter Young-company mode (see references/scoring.md §Young-company mode). Do not reject. The mode loosens history requirements and adds mandatory forward-looking inputs (forward consensus, cash runway, dilution path, capacity roadmap, regulatory milestones, customer pipeline).
   • Standard mode (commercial revenue + ≥ 3 yrs scale history + no recent pivot) → proceed without mode flag.
3. Fetch raw data via Longbridge CLI first (parallel where possible). See §CLI. If longbridge is missing, fall back to MCP (see §MCP fallback). Use WebSearch only for items genuinely outside Longbridge — TAM figures, Wright's-Law learning rates, qualitative management innovation signals, industry-runway evidence.
4. Reconciliation gate (勾稽校验) — runs before suitability scoring or any analysis. See §Reconciliation. Two-state outcome:
   • Pass (every check within tolerance) → proceed. A one-line summary of the result still appears at the end of the data-source appendix.
   • Fail (any check exceeds tolerance) → halt all downstream analysis, emit a halt message naming the failing check and gap, still print the data-source appendix and the reconciliation summary describing the failure.

CLI

Run longbridge <subcommand> --help to verify exact flags before each call — do not hard-code flag names without verification. Primary calls (run in parallel):

# Balance sheet — equity, debt, working capital (for reconciliation only; ARK analysis is forward-looking)
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind BS --report af --format json   # last 3–5 annual
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind BS --report qf --format json   # last 4 quarterly

# Income statement — revenue, segment mix, gross/operating margin, R&D
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --report af --format json
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --report qf --format json

# Cash flow — CFO, capex, FCF; for reconciliation and capital-intensity context
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --report af --format json
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --report qf --format json

# Snapshot: current price, PE, PB, shares outstanding, market cap
longbridge quote <SYMBOL> --format json
longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json

# Long-window history (used for sanity-checking current vs historical valuation, not as the primary anchor)
longbridge kline <SYMBOL> --period day --count 2500 --format json

# Company profile + classification (for platform-fit decision)
longbridge basicinfo <SYMBOL> --format json
longbridge company-profile <SYMBOL> --format json

# Recent news + filings — for verifying management innovation vision claims
longbridge news <SYMBOL> --format json
longbridge sec-filings <SYMBOL> --format json     # US; for HK use the appropriate filings endpoint per --help

# Forward consensus + share-count history — REQUIRED in Young-company mode
longbridge analyst-estimates <SYMBOL> --format json   # forward EPS / revenue consensus
longbridge consensus <SYMBOL> --format json           # alternate consensus / sell-side dispersion
longbridge corporate <SYMBOL> --format json           # share-count history for the dilution path
longbridge calendar <SYMBOL> --format json            # upcoming events for key-observation node

WebSearch fallback — only for items not available from Longbridge

ARK methodology depends heavily on third-party market-size and learning-rate data. WebSearch is required for TAM and Wright's-Law inputs; it must not be skipped to "save a step".

Missing data	WebSearch query pattern	Acceptable source authorities
Sector TAM (general tech)	"<market name> market size 2030 Gartner" "<market name> TAM IDC"	Gartner, IDC, Forrester, McKinsey Global Institute
Clean-energy TAM	"<segment> market size BloombergNEF" "<segment> 2030 IRENA"	BloombergNEF, IRENA
Battery learning rate	"battery learning rate" BloombergNEF	BloombergNEF EV Outlook (latest annual)
Solar PV learning rate	"solar PV learning rate" IRENA	IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs
DNA sequencing cost trend	"DNA sequencing cost" NHGRI	NHGRI cost database (latest update)
AI compute / inference cost	"AI compute cost" learning rate "Epoch AI"	Epoch AI, MLCommons, Stanford AI Index
Autonomous-driving runway	site:ark-invest.com "autonomous" "Big Ideas"	ARK Big Ideas (yearly, free)
Management innovation vision	"<CEO>" innovation roadmap shareholder letter	Annual report, earnings call, IR deck
Regulatory / policy overhangs	"<sector> regulation <region> 2025"	Government agency, FT, Reuters, WSJ

Every WebSearch-sourced figure must be tagged [Source: WebSearch — <publisher>, <report name>, <year>, <url>] in the appendix; never silently mix it with Longbridge data, never invent a publisher to dress up an internal estimate.

Reconciliation (勾稽校验)

Before any suitability scoring, TAM construction, or target-price calculation, verify the fetched figures are internally consistent. Reconciliation is user-visible in this skill — a one-line summary always appears as the final row of the Data Source Appendix. If a check fails, all downstream analysis halts.

Check	Formula	Tolerance
IS↔BS link	Net income(t) ≈ Δ Retained earnings(BS, t) − dividends paid(CF, t)	±3%
IS↔CF link	Net income + D&A + impairments + ΔWC ≈ Operating CF	±5%
CF↔BS link	ΔCash from CF statement = Cash(t) − Cash(t−1) on BS	±1%
Revenue segment sum	Σ segment revenue ≈ total revenue	±2%
Innovation-revenue share	Innovation-related revenue / total revenue used in suitability matches the segment-mix breakdown	exact (must match what you display)
R&D ratio	R&D expense / total revenue used in suitability matches the IS statement	exact
BS — current assets sum	Cash + AR + Inventory + Other CA ≈ Total current assets	±2%
BS — liabilities sum	ST debt + LT debt + Other liabilities ≈ Total liabilities	±2%
Market cap	calc-index shares × current price ≈ market cap from quote	±2%
Period alignment	All statements from the same fiscal period (or the lag is named)	exact
TAM source-tagging	Each TAM number has a source row in the appendix (机构 + 报告 + 年份, or 估算)	exact
Learning-rate source-tagging	Wright's-Law learning rate has a source row (BloombergNEF / IRENA / NHGRI / Epoch AI / ARK)	exact

Output rules for reconciliation:

• All pass within tolerance → final appendix row uses the clean-pass variant from references/output.md §Reconciliation summary, rendered in the user's input language only.
• Some residuals within tolerance but material to displayed figures → final appendix row lists each material residual on its own sub-line (which figure it affects).
• Any check fails > tolerance → halt all analysis; emit the halt message defined in references/output.md §Reject case-reconciliation and still print the appendix with the reconciliation summary describing the failure.
• Young-company mode: the 12 checks still apply, but rows that span more periods than the company has are pro-rated and tagged history-limited (N quarters) in the appendix; the reconciliation summary line still uses the standard ✅ / ⚠️ / ❌ variants — there is no separate young-company variant.

Output

ARK-style diagnostic with 7 fixed sections (full template in references/output.md):

1. Header + one-line conclusion — platform attribution, weighted 5-year target, upside/downside vs current price, the one-line "core bet" sentence.
2. Suitability check — 4 dimensions (platform fit / innovation revenue / R&D intensity / management vision) each tagged 强 / 中 / 弱, with one-line evidence.
3. TAM — three tiers with source tags and a plain-language analogy.
4. Wright's-Law cost curve — technology domain, learning rate with cited authority, current cost position, plain-language interpretation.
5. 5-year target — three scenarios — Bull / Base / Bear table with explicit (market share, net margin, terminal multiple), weighted expectation, current price, upside/downside.
6. Main risks — 3 concrete, named risks (not generic boilerplate).
7. Action frame + key observation node — condition-based sentences only ("if you believe X, then current price implies Y"); never a buy/sell directive. Plus one explicit next observation event/date.

Followed by the Data Source Appendix (mandatory) — every figure in sections [1]–[7] traceable to a row with source, fetch time, period, and (for WebSearch rows) URL; final row is the reconciliation summary line (pass / within-tolerance residual list / or failure description).

⚠️ 以上内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资决策请结合自身风险承受能力独立判断。/ 以上內容僅供參考，不構成投資建議。投資決策請結合自身風險承受能力獨立判斷。/ For reference only. Not investment advice. Please make investment decisions independently based on your own risk tolerance.

Error handling

Situation	简体回复	繁體回覆	English reply
command not found: longbridge	回退到 MCP；若不可用，请安装 longbridge-terminal。	回退到 MCP；若不可用，請安裝 longbridge-terminal。	Fall back to MCP; if unavailable install longbridge-terminal.
stderr not logged in / unauthorized	请运行 longbridge auth login。	請執行 longbridge auth login。	Run longbridge auth login.
Sector = traditional / being-disrupted / pre-revenue / mature	直接拒绝并按 references/output.md 给出原因 A/B/C/D 与替代方法推荐。	直接拒絕並按 references/output.md 給出原因 A/B/C/D 與替代方法推薦。	Reject and emit reason A/B/C/D plus alternative-method recommendation per references/output.md.
Reconciliation fails > tolerance	明确披露失败项与差距，不输出任何评分或目标价；附录仍输出且勾稽汇总行注明失败。	明確披露失敗項與差距，不輸出任何評分或目標價；附錄仍輸出且勾稽匯總行註明失敗。	Disclose failing check and gap; do not emit any scoring or target price; appendix still printed and reconciliation summary marks the failure.
TAM authority WebSearch returns nothing	标注「TAM 暂无可引用的权威数据，以下为基于行业逻辑的估算区间」，附录该行写 估算 而非伪造机构。	標註「TAM 暫無可引用的權威數據，以下為基於行業邏輯的估算區間」，附錄該行寫 估算 而非偽造機構。	Tag "TAM has no citable authoritative figure; the band shown is a logic-based estimate"; appendix row uses 估算 (estimated), never a fabricated publisher.
Learning-rate authority WebSearch returns nothing	标注「学习率暂无公开权威数据」；不得直接使用本 Skill 中嵌入的历史数字。	標註「學習率暫無公開權威數據」；不得直接使用本 Skill 中嵌入的歷史數字。	Tag "no publicly available authoritative learning rate"; do not silently use the embedded historical figure as current.
Suitability < pass threshold	拒绝并匹配替代方法，不得给出「仅供参考」的 ARK 分析。	拒絕並匹配替代方法，不得給出「僅供參考」的 ARK 分析。	Reject and match an alternative method; do not produce a "for reference" ARK analysis.
User horizon < 3 years stated	提示 ARK 框架是 5 年视角，与短期需求不匹配。	提示 ARK 框架是 5 年視角，與短期需求不匹配。	Warn that the ARK framework is a 5-year lens and does not fit a < 3-year horizon.
Young-company mode active, forward inputs missing	报告中明示缺失项，把管理层愿景维度封顶到「中」，不得用乐观占位符填充。	報告中明示缺失項，把管理層願景維度封頂到「中」，不得用樂觀佔位符填充。

MCP fallback

If longbridge CLI is not installed, use MCP tools (claude mcp add --transport http longbridge https://openapi.longbridge.com/mcp, quote scope):

MCP tool	CLI equivalent
mcp__longbridge__financial_report	longbridge financial-report
mcp__longbridge__calc_indexes	longbridge calc-index
mcp__longbridge__quote	longbridge quote
mcp__longbridge__kline	longbridge kline
mcp__longbridge__basicinfo	longbridge basicinfo
mcp__longbridge__news	longbridge news
mcp__longbridge__sec_filings	longbridge sec-filings
mcp__longbridge__analyst_estimates	longbridge analyst-estimates (Young-company mode)
mcp__longbridge__consensus	longbridge consensus (Young-company mode)
mcp__longbridge__corporate	longbridge corporate (dilution path)
mcp__longbridge__calendar	longbridge calendar (key observation node)

Related skills

• Buffett moat single-stock view → longbridge-buffett-moat-analyzer
• Graham cigar-butt single-stock view → longbridge-graham-stock-analysis
• DCF intrinsic value → longbridge-dcf
• Three-statement reading → longbridge-financial-report
• Peer benchmarking → longbridge-peer-comparison
• Industry runway / sector view → longbridge-industry-overview
• Method selection guide → longbridge-valuation-methodology
• Small-cap growth → longbridge-smallcap-growth

File layout

longbridge-ark-analysis/
├── SKILL.md
└── references/
    ├── scoring.md      # suitability rubric + reject reasons + alt-method matching + TAM rules + Wright's-Law table + scenario formula
    └── output.md       # full report template + label-translation lookup + reconciliation summary variants + ARK disclaimer