tcx-memory

name	tcx-memory
description	Review past investment decisions, run point-in-time historical replays, compare resolved forecasts and forward outcomes, and validate lesson candidates. Use when the user asks what happened before, why a thesis changed, whether a strategy lesson held out of sample, or what prior evidence is relevant to a current decision.

Decision Memory

Use the existing file-native decision packages, research artifacts, source snapshots, replay manifests, forecast ledger, postmortems, and improve records. Treat generated summaries, links, and Wiki-style pages as read views, never as the canonical record.

Choose The Mode

• Retrieve: find relevant prior decisions, forecasts, evidence, outcomes, and lessons. Preserve contrary and retired records; do not return only successful cases.
• Replay: freeze an as-of time and use only source snapshots knowable by that cutoff. Record the ResearchSpec and replay manifest before revealing the outcome.
• Review: compare the frozen decision process with the resolved outcome. Assess process quality before revealing P&L or outcome quality, then keep the two judgments separate.
• Validate: compare a lesson candidate across independent episodes, historical holdout periods, regimes, and live forward evidence.

Procedure

1. Identify the subject, decision or forecast id when known, time cutoff, evidence origin, and selected strategy snapshot. Use no_strategy when no strategy applied. Retrieve through the structured read-only MCP tools available to the current role: list_workflow_artifacts, list_research_artifacts, search_research_artifacts, get_research_artifact, list_research_specs, get_research_spec, list_forecasts, get_forecast, and get_forecast_calibration_report.
2. For a current decision, record the independent initial view before retrieving similar cases. After retrieval, show what changed and why. When Memory changes a synthesis, store only the compact memory block: cutoff, initial view, canonical Judgment/Postmortem/Lesson refs, and a delta direction of unchanged, strengthened, weakened, or reversed with its reason. Omit the block entirely when Memory was not used; the receipt seals exact hashes.
3. For historical replay, reject sources whose known_at exceeds the cutoff. Preserve data vintage, universe membership, delistings, corporate actions, costs, model/prompt/tool hashes, and every attempted hypothesis or parameter trial when applicable. Freeze the plan and manifest through create_research_spec and create_replay_manifest when the current role is authorized; otherwise dispatch the smallest registered role that owns the required MCP tool. Never substitute a shell command or caller-supplied principal.
4. Freeze forecasts and invalidation conditions before outcomes are visible. Use the role-bound issue_forecast, revise_forecast, resolve_forecast, and score_forecast MCP tools for the append-only lifecycle. Dispatch the registered independent reviewer for resolution when required by the tool contract.
5. Once an accepted synthesis has future evaluation value, Head Manager records its immutable JudgmentSnapshot with record_judgment_snapshot. It freezes the canonical synthesis receipt, run context, cutoff, and forecast refs or forecast block reason. It remains evidence_only.
6. Before any outcome is recorded or revealed, reconstruct intent, evidence, alternatives, assumptions, guardrails, and the decision-time process from durable artifacts. Prepare a process-review payload without outcome knowledge, then use the explicit user-terminal handoff below to lock it. Do not invent missing events.
7. Only after the process review is locked, record and independently resolve the outcome. Prepare the second-pass postmortem payload, binding process_review_id, the sealed DecisionSnapshot, and undisputed forecast outcome events, then hand it to the user for the terminal action below. Store any generalization as a lesson candidate, not as a durable rule. Separate knowledge-base integrity errors, decision process errors, and forecast resolution or calibration errors.
8. Label lesson state as candidate, corroborated, validated, or retired. Record evidence origin separately as historical_replay, historical_holdout, or live_forward.
9. Promote a lesson only after independent contrary-case review and out-of-sample evidence appropriate to its scope and regime. Dispatch the registered independent review role; its authenticated review principal must call the promote_lesson MCP tool. There is no direct CLI promotion path, and a caller-supplied role is not reviewer authentication. Historical replay evidence alone cannot become holdout or live-forward validation.

User Adoption And Terminal Handoff

Never infer that the user adopted a Judgment. When the user explicitly chooses to adopt one, prepare a payload with judgment_id, the user's decision, and an optional superseded adoption reference. Codex must not run the adoption command or write the event directly. Tell the user to run it interactively:

{{TRADINGCODEX_WORKSPACE_LAUNCHER}} decision adopt <payload.json>
{{TRADINGCODEX_WORKSPACE_LAUNCHER}} postmortem process-review <payload.json>
{{TRADINGCODEX_WORKSPACE_LAUNCHER}} postmortem create <payload.json>

When an id is unknown and the structured MCP views do not expose the needed record, hand off one read-only terminal command and ask the user to return its output:

{{TRADINGCODEX_WORKSPACE_LAUNCHER}} postmortem list
{{TRADINGCODEX_WORKSPACE_LAUNCHER}} postmortem show <report-id>

Never claim that a handed-off command ran until the user returns its output.

Boundaries

• Do not treat LLM confidence, graph connectivity, retrieval frequency, or a profitable outcome as proof that a claim is true.
• Do not erase superseded claims or failed cases. Link replacements while preserving the earlier record and its decision-time context.
• Do not merge historical replay, historical holdout, and live forward metrics into one score.
• Do not silently change a strategy, skill, prompt, role, policy, approval, broker, or execution setting. Produce a reviewable change proposal instead.
• Do not replace a structured TradingCodex MCP operation with a launcher, shell, or direct file edit. User Adoption and postmortem handoffs are the explicit terminal-only exceptions.
• Do not draft, approve, or execute an order from memory evidence alone.

Return the relevant artifact paths, the applicable strategy snapshot, the strongest supporting and contrary episodes, lesson status, evidence tier, and the next validation needed.