market-analyst

# Market Analyst Skill ## Purpose This skill consumes outputs from the **reddit-sentiment-analysis** skill to perform meta-analysis across multiple products/games. It identifies: - **Common patterns** across successful products (what universally drives satisfaction) - **Market gaps** where demand exists but supply is lacking - **Underserved segments** with unmet needs - **Novelty opportunities** where unique approaches could succeed - **Predicted hits** based on cross-product sentiment intelligence - **Strategic recommendations** for product development and positioning ## When to Use This Skill Use this skill when you have: - ✅ Multiple sentiment analysis reports (2+ products/games analyzed) - ✅ Need to identify market opportunities across a product category - ✅ Want to predict which upcoming products will succeed - ✅ Looking for gaps in the market based on user sentiment - ✅ Need strategic recommendations for product development - ✅ Want to understand what makes products succeed or fail ## Prerequisites 1. **Input Data**: 2+ Reddit sentiment analysis reports in `/docs/` - Generated by `reddit-sentiment-analysis` skill - Must follow standard format with LIKES/DISLIKES/WISHES sections - Recent data (ideally within same time period) 2. **Analysis Scope**: Clear product category (e.g., FPS games, productivity apps, streaming services) ## Core Workflow ### Phase 1: Data Ingestion and Normalization **1. Identify Available Sentiment Reports** - Scan `/docs/` for `reddit-sentiment-*.md` files - Parse each report to extract structured data - Validate format and completeness **2. Extract Key Data Points** For each product/game analyzed, extract: ```javascript { product_name: string, overall_sentiment: {positive: %, negative: %, neutral: %}, likes: [ {aspect: string, mentions: number, sentiment: %, quotes: []} ], dislikes: [ {aspect: string, mentions: number, severity: string, quotes: []} ], wishes: [ {feature: string, mentions: number, urgency: string, quotes: []} ], key_insights: [], competitor_mentions: {} } ``` ### Phase 2: Cross-Product Pattern Analysis **3. Identify Universal Success Factors** Analyze LIKES across all products to find patterns: **Pattern Detection Algorithm:** ```javascript // Group similar aspects across products const commonLikes = groupSimilarAspects(allProducts.likes); // Calculate frequency and consistency for (aspect in commonLikes) { const frequency = countProducts(aspect); const avgSentiment = calculateAverage(aspect.sentiment); const consistency = calculateVariance(aspect.sentiment); if (frequency >= 50% && avgSentiment >= 85% && consistency < 15%) { markAs("Universal Success Factor"); } } ``` **Success Factor Categories:** - **Gameplay/Functionality**: Core mechanics, features, usability - **Value Proposition**: Pricing, content volume, value-for-money - **Polish/Quality**: Performance, visuals, stability, UX - **Community/Social**: Multiplayer, social features, community engagement - **Innovation**: Novel mechanics, creative approaches, unique features **4. Identify Universal Pain Points** Analyze DISLIKES across all products: ```javascript // Find recurring complaints const commonDislikes = groupSimilarIssues(allProducts.dislikes); // Classify by universality for (issue in commonDislikes) { const frequency = countProducts(issue); const avgSeverity = calculateSeverity(issue); if (frequency >= 60% && avgSeverity === "HIGH") { markAs("Industry-Wide Problem"); } } ``` **Pain Point Categories:** - **Monetization Issues**: Aggressive MTX, pay-to-win, expensive pricing - **Technical Problems**: Performance, bugs, server issues - **Design Flaws**: Poor UX, frustrating mechanics, balance issues - **Content/Feature Gaps**: Missing features, lack of variety - **Business Model Issues**: Live service problems, abandonment fears **5. Analyze Wish Patterns** Examine WISHES to identify unmet demand: ```javascript // Find common wishes across products const universalWishes = groupSimilarWishes(allProducts.wishes); // Calculate demand intensity for (wish in universalWishes) { const demandScore = wish.frequency * wish.avgUrgency * wish.mentions; if (demandScore > THRESHOLD) { markAs("High-Demand Unmet Need"); } } ``` ### Phase 3: Gap Identification and Market Opportunity Analysis **6. Identify Market Gaps** **Gap Detection Framework:** **Type 1: Feature Gaps** (Widely wished for, nobody delivers) ``` IF: Wish appears in 3+ products AND: Urgency >= MEDIUM across all AND: No product currently delivers it THEN: Feature Gap Opportunity ``` **Type 2: Segment Gaps** (Underserved audience) ``` IF: Common complaint about product not serving a specific need AND: No product specifically targets that need THEN: Segment Gap Opportunity ``` **Type 3: Price/Value Gaps** (Wrong pricing tier) ``` IF: Multiple products criticized for pricing AND: Wishes mention "more affordable option" or "premium option" AND: No product fills that price point THEN: Price Gap Opportunity ``` **Type 4: Business Model Gaps** (Better service model needed) ``` IF: Common complaints about monetization/lifecycle AND: Alternative model wished for across products THEN: Business Model Gap Opportunity ``` **7. Calculate Gap Priority Score** ```javascript gapPriorityScore = ( demandIntensity * 0.35 + // How many people want it competitiveGap * 0.25 + // How few products offer it urgencyLevel * 0.20 + // How badly it's needed marketSize * 0.15 + // Addressable market size feasibility * 0.05 // Technical/business feasibility ) * 100 ``` **Priority Tiers:** - **CRITICAL (90-100)**: Massive demand, no competition, urgent need - **HIGH (75-89)**: Strong demand, minimal competition, clear need - **MEDIUM (60-74)**: Moderate demand, some competition, growing need - **LOW (40-59)**: Niche demand, crowded market, optional feature ### Phase 4: Novelty Detection and Innovation Analysis **8. Identify Outlier Successes** Find products/features praised uniquely: ```javascript // Detect novelty for (product in allProducts) { for (like in product.likes) { const uniqueness = calculateUniqueness(like, otherProducts); const sentiment = like.sentiment; if (uniqueness > 80% && sentiment > 85%) { markAs("Novelty Success", { feature: like.aspect, product: product.name, why_unique: analyzeWhy(like), replicability: assessReplicability(like) }); } } } ``` **Novelty Categories:** - **Mechanic Innovation**: Unique gameplay/feature never seen before - **Design Innovation**: Novel UX/UI approach or artistic direction - **Business Model Innovation**: New monetization or service model - **Community Innovation**: Unique social/multiplayer approach - **Accessibility Innovation**: Solving problems in new ways **9. Assess Novelty Replicability** For each novelty success: - **Transferable to other products?** (YES/NO/PARTIAL) - **Category-specific or universal?** (UNIVERSAL/CATEGORY/PRODUCT) - **Competitive moat strength?** (WEAK/MEDIUM/STRONG) - **First-mover advantage duration?** (MONTHS/YEARS/PERMANENT) ### Phase 5: Predictive Analysis and Recommendations **10. Predict Likely Hits** **Hit Prediction Algorithm:** ```javascript function predictHitPotential(productConcept) { const score = { alignsWithSuccessFactors: 0, // Does it have universal likes? avoidsCommonPitfalls: 0, // Does it avoid universal dislikes? addressesUnmetNeeds: 0, // Does it fill market gaps? hasNoveltyFactor: 0, // Does it innovate? priceValueProposition: 0 // Is pricing right? }; // Score each dimension (0-100) score.alignsWithSuccessFactors = checkAlignment(productConcept, universalSuccessFactors); score.avoidsCommonPitfalls = checkAvoidance(productConcept, universalPainPoints); score.addressesUnmetNeeds = checkGapFilling(productConcept, marketGaps); score.hasNoveltyFactor = checkNovelty(productConcept, noveltySuccesses); score.priceValueProposition = checkPricing(productConcept, pricingAnalysis); const hitProbability = ( score.alignsWithSuccessFactors * 0.30 + score.avoidsCommonPitfalls * 0.25 + score.addressesUnmetNeeds * 0.25 + score.hasNoveltyFactor * 0.15 + score.priceValueProposition * 0.05 ); return { probability: hitProbability, confidence: calculateConfidence(dataQuality, sampleSize), breakdown: score, recommendations: generateRecommendations(score) }; } ``` **11. Generate Strategic Recommendations** **Product Development Recommendations:** ```markdown ### Must-Have Features (Universal Success Factors) 1. [Feature] - Present in X/Y products with Z% positive sentiment - Why it matters: [explanation] - How to implement: [guidance] ### Critical Pitfalls to Avoid (Universal Pain Points) 1. [Issue] - Complained about in X/Y products with Z severity - Why it fails: [explanation] - How to avoid: [guidance] ### Market Gap Opportunities (High Priority) 1. [Gap] - Priority Score: XX/100 - Demand evidence: [data] - Competition: [current state] - Recommended approach: [strategy] ``` **12. Create Market Opportunity Matrix** ``` HIGH NOVELTY | LOW DEMAND Q2: Risky Innovation Q1: Blue Ocean HIGH DEMAND | | Q3: Avoid/Niche Q4: Proven Demand | LOW NOVELTY Q1 (High Demand + High Novelty): PRIORITY - Innovate in underserved areas Q2 (Low Demand + High Novelty): RISKY - Innovation without market validation Q3 (Low Demand + Low Novelty): AVOID - Crowded, low-interest space Q4 (High Demand + Low Novelty): SAFE - Proven market, execution differentiator ``` ## Output Format ### Market Analysis Report Structure ```markdown # Market Analysis Report: [Product Category] **Analysis Date**: [Date] **Products Analyzed**: [List] **Sentiment Reports Used**: [Number] **Total Data Points**: [Posts + Comments analyzed] --- ## Executive Summary [2-3 paragraph overview of key findings, top opportunities, major risks] --- ## Section 1: Universal Success Factors ### What Drives Success Across All Products 1. **[Success Factor Name]** (appears in X/Y products, Z% avg positive sentiment) - **Evidence**: [Quotes from multiple products] - **Why it works**: [Psychological/practical explanation] - **Implementation guidance**: [How to deliver this] - **Products excelling**: [Examples] [Repeat for 5-7 success factors] ### Success Factor Summary Table | Factor | Frequency | Avg Sentiment | Consistency | Priority | |--------|-----------|---------------|-------------|----------| | [Factor 1] | 5/5 products | 92% | High | CRITICAL | | [Factor 2] | 4/5 products | 87% | Medium | HIGH | ... --- ## Section 2: Universal Pain Points ### What Consistently Fails Across Products 1. **[Pain Point Name]** (appears in X/Y products, Z severity) - **Evidence**: [Quotes showing frustration] - **Why it fails**: [Root cause analysis] - **How to avoid**: [Prevention strategy] - **Products struggling**: [Examples] [Repeat for 5-7 pain points] ### Pain Point Summary Table | Issue | Frequency | Avg Severity | Impact | Avoidability | |-------|-----------|--------------|--------|--------------| | [Issue 1] | 5/5 products | CRITICAL | High | Easy | | [Issue 2] | 4/5 products | HIGH | Medium | Hard | ... --- ## Section 3: Market Gaps & Opportunities ### High-Priority Gaps (Score 75-100) 1. **[Gap Name]** - Priority Score: XX/100 - **Type**: [Feature/Segment/Price/Business Model] - **Demand Evidence**: - Mentioned in X/Y products - Y total mentions, Z% urgency HIGH - Representative quotes: "[quote 1]", "[quote 2]" - **Current Competition**: [Who's attempting this, if anyone] - **Market Size Estimate**: [TAM/SAM if calculable] - **Recommended Approach**: [Strategy to fill gap] - **Risks**: [Challenges to address] - **Timeline to Market**: [Estimate] [Repeat for all high-priority gaps] ### Medium-Priority Gaps (Score 60-74) [Similar structure, condensed] ### Gap Opportunity Matrix ``` Demand Intensity vs. Competitive Gap [Visual representation of opportunities] ``` --- ## Section 4: Novelty & Innovation Analysis ### Successful Innovations (Outlier Wins) 1. **[Innovation Name]** from [Product] - **What makes it unique**: [Description] - **Sentiment**: [% positive, mentions] - **Evidence**: [Quotes praising novelty] - **Replicability**: [EASY/MEDIUM/HARD] - **Transferability**: [Which categories could use this]