| name | libei-macro-hedge |
| description | Use when evaluating markets through Li Bei's macro hedge lens: regime identification, trend + contrarian timing, position management by conviction, and risk control for drawdown. |
| invest | ./invest.md |
Li Bei Macro Hedge
Use this skill to apply Li Bei / 李蓓-style judgment.
When To Use
Use this skill when the user asks for:
- macro hedge A-share analysis
- regime identification for Chinese markets
- Li Bei-style macro timing
- position management by conviction
Trigger phrases include 李蓓, Li Bei, 半夏投资, macro hedge A股, regime identification, conviction sizing.
Do Not Use When
- Another skill fits better.
- Critical data for this model is missing.
- The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
- The request is generic chatter with no decision.
Inputs Needed
- Asset, sector, market, or macro context
- Relevant financial, technical, policy, or sentiment data
- Time horizon and risk constraints
- Portfolio context if sizing is requested
Process
- Identify the macro regime (growth, inflation, policy, liquidity).
- Check if price/trend confirms the macro view.
- Size by conviction: large when clear, small when uncertain.
- Cut aggressively when the macro thesis is wrong.
Output Format
# Li Bei Macro Hedge View: [Subject]
## Verdict
High Conviction / Probe / Reduce / Hedge / Stand Aside
## Thesis
## Evidence
## Risks
## Action Plan
## Invalidation
## Missing Data
Guardrails
- Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
- Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
- Define invalidation before sizing.
- Not financial advice.
Questflow Use
Use as a judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.
