| name | churn-prevention |
| description | When the user wants to reduce churn or build retention systems — 'cancel flow,' 'save offer,' 'dunning,' 'failed payment recovery,' 'win-back,' 'exit survey,' 'pause subscription,' 'involuntary churn,' 'customers are leaving.' For post-cancel win-back sequences, see email-sequence. For in-app upgrade paywalls, see paywall-upgrade-cro. |
| category | marketing |
| tier | on-demand |
Churn Prevention
Reduce voluntary churn (customers choosing to cancel) and involuntary churn (failed payments) via cancel flows, dynamic save offers, proactive retention, and dunning.
Before Starting
Product context: If .agents/product-marketing-context.md exists (or .claude/product-marketing-context.md in older setups), read it first and tailor output to it; only ask for what it doesn't cover.
Gather this context (ask if not provided):
- Current churn situation — Monthly churn rate (voluntary vs. involuntary if known)? Active subscribers? Average MRR per customer? Existing cancel flow, or instant cancel?
- Billing & platform — Provider (Stripe, Chargebee, Paddle, Recurly, Braintree)? Monthly, annual, or both intervals? Pausing or downgrades supported? Retention tooling (Churnkey, ProsperStack, Raaft)?
- Product & usage data — Feature usage tracked per user? Engagement drop-offs identifiable? Cancellation reason data from past churns? Activation metric (what do retained users do that churned users don't)?
- Constraints — B2B or B2C (affects flow design)? Self-serve cancellation required (some regulations mandate easy cancel)? Offboarding brand tone (empathetic, direct, playful)?
How This Skill Works
Two churn types, two strategies:
| Type | Cause | Solution |
|---|
| Voluntary | Customer chooses to cancel | Cancel flows, save offers, exit surveys |
| Involuntary | Payment fails | Dunning emails, smart retries, card updaters |
Voluntary is typically 50-70% of total churn; involuntary is 30-50% but often easier to fix.
Three modes:
- Build a cancel flow — Design from scratch with survey, save offers, and confirmation
- Optimize an existing flow — Analyze cancel data and improve save rates
- Set up dunning — Failed payment recovery with retries and email sequences
Cancel Flow Design
The Cancel Flow Structure
Trigger → Survey → Dynamic Offer → Confirmation → Post-Cancel
- Trigger — Customer clicks "Cancel subscription" in account settings.
- Exit Survey — Ask why; the reason determines which save offer to show.
- Dynamic Save Offer — Targeted offer based on reason (discount, pause, downgrade, etc.)
- Confirmation — If they still cancel, confirm clearly with end-of-billing-period messaging.
- Post-Cancel — Set expectations, offer easy reactivation, trigger win-back sequence.
Exit Survey Design
The survey is the foundation. Good reason categories:
| Reason | What It Tells You |
|---|
| Too expensive | Price sensitivity, may respond to discount or downgrade |
| Not using it enough | Low engagement, may respond to pause or onboarding help |
| Missing a feature | Product gap, show roadmap or workaround |
| Switching to competitor | Competitive pressure, understand what they offer |
| Technical issues / bugs | Product quality, escalate to support |
| Temporary / seasonal need | Usage pattern, offer pause |
| Business closed / changed | Unavoidable, learn and let go gracefully |
| Other | Catch-all, include free text field |
Survey best practices:
- 1 question, single-select with optional free text
- 5-8 reason options max (avoid decision fatigue)
- Most common reasons first (review data quarterly)
- No guilt trips — "Help us improve" framing beats "Why are you leaving?"
Dynamic Save Offers
Match the offer to the reason. A discount won't save someone who isn't using the product; a roadmap won't save someone who can't afford it.
| Cancel Reason | Primary Offer | Fallback Offer |
|---|
| Too expensive | Discount (20-30% for 2-3 months) | Downgrade to lower plan |
| Not using it enough | Pause (1-3 months) | Free onboarding session |
| Missing feature | Roadmap preview + timeline | Workaround guide |
| Switching to competitor | Competitive comparison + discount | Feedback session |
| Technical issues | Escalate to support immediately | Credit + priority fix |
| Temporary / seasonal | Pause subscription | Downgrade temporarily |
| Business closed | Skip offer (respect the situation) | — |
Save Offer Types
Discount
- 20-30% off for 2-3 months is the sweet spot; avoid 50%+ (trains customers to cancel for deals)
- Time-limit it ("This offer expires when you leave this page")
- Show dollar amount saved, not just the percentage
Pause subscription
- 1-3 month maximum (longer pauses rarely reactivate)
- 60-80% of pausers eventually return to active
- Auto-reactivation with advance notice email; keep data and settings intact
Plan downgrade
- Lower tier instead of full cancellation; show what they keep vs. lose
- Position as "right-size your plan," with an easy path back up
Feature unlock / extension
- Unlock an untried premium feature or extend a higher-tier trial; best for "not getting enough value" reasons
Personal outreach
- For high-value accounts (top 10-20% by MRR): route to customer success for a call, or a personal founder email at smaller companies
Cancel Flow UI Patterns
┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
│ We're sorry to see you go │
│ │
│ What's the main reason you're │
│ cancelling? │
│ │
│ ○ Too expensive │
│ ○ Not using it enough │
│ ○ Missing a feature I need │
│ ○ Switching to another tool │
│ ○ Technical issues │
│ ○ Temporary / don't need right now │
│ ○ Other: [____________] │
│ │
│ [Continue] │
│ [Never mind, keep my subscription] │
└─────────────────────────────────────┘
↓ (selects "Too expensive")
┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
│ What if we could help? │
│ │
│ We'd love to keep you. Here's a │
│ special offer: │
│ │
│ ┌───────────────────────────────┐ │
│ │ 25% off for the next 3 months│ │
│ │ Save $XX/month │ │
│ │ │ │
│ │ [Accept Offer] │ │
│ └───────────────────────────────┘ │
│ │
│ Or switch to [Basic Plan] at │
│ $X/month → │
│ │
│ [No thanks, continue cancelling] │
└─────────────────────────────────────┘
UI principles:
- Keep "continue cancelling" visible (no dark patterns)
- One primary offer + one fallback, not a wall of options
- Show specific dollar savings, not abstract percentages
- Use the customer's name and account data when possible
- Mobile-friendly (many cancellations happen on mobile)
For detailed cancel flow patterns by industry and billing provider, see references/cancel-flow-patterns.md.
Churn Prediction & Proactive Retention
The best save happens before the customer ever clicks "Cancel."
Risk Signals
Leading indicators of churn:
| Signal | Risk Level | Timeframe |
|---|
| Login frequency drops 50%+ | High | 2-4 weeks before cancel |
| Key feature usage stops | High | 1-3 weeks before cancel |
| Support tickets spike then stop | High | 1-2 weeks before cancel |
| Email open rates decline | Medium | 2-6 weeks before cancel |
| Billing page visits increase | High | Days before cancel |
| Team seats removed | High | 1-2 weeks before cancel |
| Data export initiated | Critical | Days before cancel |
| NPS score drops below 6 | Medium | 1-3 months before cancel |
Health Score Model
Simple health score (0-100) from weighted signals:
Health Score = (
Login frequency score × 0.30 +
Feature usage score × 0.25 +
Support sentiment × 0.15 +
Billing health × 0.15 +
Engagement score × 0.15
)
| Score | Status | Action |
|---|
| 80-100 | Healthy | Upsell opportunities |
| 60-79 | Needs attention | Proactive check-in |
| 40-59 | At risk | Intervention campaign |
| 0-39 | Critical | Personal outreach |
Proactive Interventions
| Trigger | Intervention |
|---|
| Usage drop >50% for 2 weeks | "We noticed you haven't used [feature]. Need help?" email |
| Approaching plan limit | Upgrade nudge (not a wall — paywall-upgrade-cro handles this) |
| No login for 14 days | Re-engagement email with recent product updates |
| NPS detractor (0-6) | Personal follow-up within 24 hours |
| Support ticket unresolved >48h | Escalation + proactive status update |
| Annual renewal in 30 days | Value recap email + renewal confirmation |
Involuntary Churn: Payment Recovery
Failed payments cause 30-50% of all churn but are the most recoverable.
The Dunning Stack
Pre-dunning → Smart retry → Dunning emails → Grace period → Hard cancel
Pre-Dunning (Prevent Failures)
- Card expiry alerts: Email 30, 15, and 7 days before card expires
- Backup payment method: Prompt for a second payment method at signup
- Card updater services: Visa/Mastercard auto-update programs (reduces hard declines 30-50%)
- Pre-billing notification: Email 3-5 days before charge for annual plans
Smart Retry Logic
Retry strategy by decline type:
| Decline Type | Examples | Retry Strategy |
|---|
| Soft decline (temporary) | Insufficient funds, processor timeout | Retry 3-5 times over 7-10 days |
| Hard decline (permanent) | Card stolen, account closed | Don't retry — ask for new card |
| Authentication required | 3D Secure, SCA | Send customer to update payment |
Retry timing:
- Retry 1: 24 hours after failure
- Retry 2: 3 days after failure
- Retry 3: 5 days after failure
- Retry 4: 7 days after failure (with dunning email escalation)
- After 4 retries: Hard cancel with reactivation path
Smart retry tip: Retry on the day of the month the payment originally succeeded (if Day 1 worked before, retry on Day 1). Stripe Smart Retries handles this automatically.
Dunning Email Sequence
| Email | Timing | Tone | Content |
|---|
| 1 | Day 0 (failure) | Friendly alert | "Your payment didn't go through. Update your card." |
| 2 | Day 3 | Helpful reminder | "Quick reminder — update your payment to keep access." |
| 3 | Day 7 | Urgency | "Your account will be paused in 3 days. Update now." |
| 4 | Day 10 | Final warning | "Last chance to keep your account active." |
Dunning email best practices:
- Direct link to payment update page (no login required if possible)
- Show what they'll lose (their data, their team's access)
- Don't blame ("your payment failed" not "you failed to pay")
- Include support contact
- Plain text outperforms designed emails for dunning
Recovery Benchmarks
| Metric | Poor | Average | Good |
|---|
| Soft decline recovery | <40% | 50-60% | 70%+ |
| Hard decline recovery | <10% | 20-30% | 40%+ |
| Overall payment recovery | <30% | 40-50% | 60%+ |
| Pre-dunning prevention | None | 10-15% | 20-30% |
For the complete dunning playbook with provider-specific setup, see references/dunning-playbook.md.
Metrics & Measurement
Key Churn Metrics
| Metric | Formula | Target |
|---|
| Monthly churn rate | Churned customers / Start-of-month customers | <5% B2C, <2% B2B |
| Revenue churn (net) | (Lost MRR - Expansion MRR) / Start MRR | Negative (net expansion) |
| Cancel flow save rate | Saved / Total cancel sessions | 25-35% |
| Offer acceptance rate | Accepted offers / Shown offers | 15-25% |
| Pause reactivation rate | Reactivated / Total paused | 60-80% |
| Dunning recovery rate | Recovered / Total failed payments | 50-60% |
| Time to cancel | Days from first churn signal to cancel | Track trend |
Cohort Analysis
Segment churn by:
- Acquisition channel — Which channels bring stickier customers?
- Plan type — Which plans churn most?
- Tenure — When do most cancellations happen? (30, 60, 90 days?)
- Cancel reason — Which reasons are growing?
- Save offer type — Which offers work best for which segments?
Cancel Flow A/B Tests
Test one variable at a time:
| Test | Hypothesis | Metric |
|---|
| Discount % (20% vs 30%) | Higher discount saves more | Save rate, LTV impact |
| Pause duration (1 vs 3 months) | Longer pause increases return rate | Reactivation rate |
| Survey placement (before vs after offer) | Survey-first personalizes offers | Save rate |
| Offer presentation (modal vs full page) | Full page gets more attention | Save rate |
| Copy tone (empathetic vs direct) | Empathetic reduces friction | Save rate |
Running experiments: Use the ab-test-setup skill for statistically rigorous tests. PostHog fits cancel flow experiments — feature flags split users into flows server-side, and funnel analytics track each step (survey → offer → accept/decline → confirm). See the PostHog integration guide for setup.
Common Mistakes
- No cancel flow at all — Instant cancel leaves money on the table. Even a simple survey + one offer saves 10-15%
- Making cancellation hard to find — Hidden cancel buttons breed resentment and bad reviews. Many jurisdictions require easy cancellation (FTC Click-to-Cancel rule)
- Same offer for every reason — A blanket discount doesn't address "missing feature" or "not using it"
- Discounts too deep — 50%+ discounts train customers to cancel-and-return for deals
- Ignoring involuntary churn — Often 30-50% of total churn and the easiest to fix
- No dunning emails — Letting payment failures silently cancel accounts
- Guilt-trip copy — "Are you sure you want to abandon us?" damages brand trust
- Not tracking save offer LTV — A "saved" customer who churns 30 days later wasn't really saved
- Pausing too long — Pauses beyond 3 months rarely reactivate. Set limits.
- No post-cancel path — Make reactivation easy and trigger win-back emails; some churned users will want to come back
Tool Integrations
For implementation, see the tools registry.
Retention Platforms
| Tool | Best For | Key Feature |
|---|
| Churnkey | Full cancel flow + dunning | AI-powered adaptive offers, 34% avg save rate |
| ProsperStack | Cancel flows with analytics | Advanced rules engine, Stripe/Chargebee integration |
| Raaft | Simple cancel flow builder | Easy setup, good for early-stage |
| Chargebee Retention | Chargebee customers | Native integration, was Brightback |
Billing Providers (Dunning)
| Provider | Smart Retries | Dunning Emails | Card Updater |
|---|
| Stripe | Built-in (Smart Retries) | Built-in | Automatic |
| Chargebee | Built-in | Built-in | Via gateway |
| Paddle | Built-in | Built-in | Managed |
| Recurly | Built-in | Built-in | Built-in |
| Braintree | Manual config | Manual | Via gateway |
Related CLI Tools
| Tool | Use For |
|---|
stripe | Subscription management, dunning config, payment retries |
customer-io | Dunning email sequences, retention campaigns |
posthog | Cancel flow A/B tests via feature flags, funnel analytics |
mixpanel / ga4 | Usage tracking, churn signal analysis |
segment | Event routing for health scoring |
Related Skills
- email-sequence: For win-back email sequences after cancellation
- paywall-upgrade-cro: For in-app upgrade moments and trial expiration
- pricing-strategy: For plan structure and annual discount strategy
- onboarding-cro: For activation to prevent early churn
- analytics-tracking: For setting up churn signal events
- ab-test-setup: For testing cancel flow variations with statistical rigor
