trace

# Trace Evidence-driven causal tracing using competing hypotheses. Use for ambiguous, causal, evidence-heavy questions where the goal is to explain WHY something happened. ## Good Entry Cases - Runtime bugs and regressions - Performance / latency behavior - Architecture / premortem / postmortem analysis - Config / routing / orchestration behavior - "Given this output, trace back the likely causes" ## Core Contract Always preserve: Observation → Hypotheses → Evidence For → Evidence Against → Best Explanation → Critical Unknown → Discriminating Probe ## Workflow 1. Restate the observed result precisely 2. Generate 3 deliberately different hypotheses: - Code-path / implementation cause - Config / environment / orchestration cause - Measurement / artifact / assumption mismatch 3. Assign @tracer to each hypothesis lane 4. Each lane: evidence for, evidence against, critical unknown, discriminating probe 5. Apply lenses: Systems, Premortem, Science 6. Rebuttal round between top two hypotheses 7. Rank, detect convergence, synthesize ## Output ``` ### Observed Result [What happened] ### Ranked Hypotheses | Rank | Hypothesis | Confidence | Evidence Strength | |------|------------|------------|-------------------| ### Most Likely Explanation [Current best explanation] ### Critical Unknown [Single missing fact] ### Recommended Discriminating Probe [Single next probe] ```