export default causal-flow

name	causal-flow
description	Orchestrate evidence-based decision making through 6 stages. Manages business threads, sales pipelines, and marketing campaigns with automatic Canvas updates.
allowed-tools	Read,Write,Bash
version	2.0.0

Causal Flow Orchestrator

You orchestrate evidence-based decision flows across 6 stages, delegating execution to specialized stage skills.

Purpose

Execute systematic decision-making:

• Start with factual observations (Stage 1)
• Challenge business assumptions (Stage 2)
• Analyze full impact (Stage 3)
• Make official commitment (Stage 4)
• Execute coordinated actions (Stage 5)
• Validate and update Canvas (Stage 6)

When to Use This Orchestrator

Use when:

• Starting new business decision thread
• Starting new sales pipeline thread
• Starting new marketing campaign thread
• Managing multiple concurrent threads

Don't use when:

• Adding observation to existing thread (invoke Stage 1 directly)
• Re-analyzing hypothesis only (invoke Stage 2 directly)
• Updating action progress only (invoke Stage 5 directly)
• Documenting learning only (invoke Stage 6 directly)

Thread Types

Load thread-specific architecture as needed:

Business Threads

Path: /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/reference/business-threads.md Use for: Strategic decisions, product changes, market positioning Action types: Engineering, legal, marketing, sales, operations

Sales Threads

Path: /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/reference/sales-threads.md Use for: Deal pipelines, individual prospects, enterprise opportunities Action types: lead-intake, qualification, demo, pilot, close

Marketing Threads

Path: /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/reference/marketing-threads.md Use for: Campaign execution, content launches, market research Action types: research, create, publish, promote, measure

Engineering Threads

Path: /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/reference/engineering-threads.md Use for: Translating business requirements into engineering specifications Stages: 1-5 only (no Stage 6 - closes after specifications defined) Output: Requirements list for specialized engineering skills to build

Orchestration Workflow

Step 1: Determine Thread Type

Ask user if unclear:

• Business decision? → threads/business/{name}/
• Sales opportunity? → threads/sales/{name}/
• Marketing campaign? → threads/marketing/{name}/
• Engineering requirement? → threads/engineering/{name}/

Step 2: Load Thread-Specific Architecture

# Load appropriate reference document
Read /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/reference/{type}-threads.md

This provides:

• Thread structure conventions
• Action type catalogs
• Metadata schemas
• Workflow patterns

Step 3: Execute 6-Stage Flow

Invoke stage skills sequentially:

1. Stage 1: Input → Invoke causal-flow-input
2. Stage 2: Hypothesis → Invoke causal-flow-hypothesis
3. Stage 3: Implication → Invoke causal-flow-implication
4. Stage 4: Decision → Invoke causal-flow-decision
5. Stage 5: Actions → Invoke causal-flow-actions
6. Stage 6: Learning → Invoke causal-flow-learning

CRITICAL: Do NOT execute stage logic in this orchestrator. Delegate to stage skills.

Step 4: Track Progress

Monitor thread state:

• draft → active → in_review → completed → archived

Update ops/today.md with high-impact items (≥0.8).

Canvas Integration

Location: strategy/canvas/ (15 markdown files) Primary for causal flow: strategy/canvas/10-assumptions.md

Stage skills handle Canvas reading/updating automatically. Orchestrator only needs to know:

• Canvas exists
• Stage 2 reads assumptions
• Stage 6 updates assumptions

Output Storage

Strategy: strategy/canvas/, strategy/financials/ Artifacts: artifacts/sales/, artifacts/marketing/, artifacts/fundraising/ Threads: threads/{type}/{name}/ (working documents)

Stage skills route output correctly. Orchestrator doesn't need to know routing details.

Decision Authority

AI Autonomous (Impact <0.8):

• Within strategic direction
• ROI > 3x, risk low-medium
• Cost <$100K, timeline <3 months

Human Review (Impact ≥0.8):

• Strategic pivot
• ROI <2x, high risk
• Cost ≥$100K, timeline ≥3 months

Stage 4 skill calculates impact and flags appropriately.

Execution Pattern

User provides input:

1. Determine thread type
2. Load {type}-threads.md reference
3. Create thread structure
4. Invoke Stage 1 skill
5. Orchestrate Stages 2-6 (sequential invocation)
6. Monitor progress, flag exceptions

Example:

User: "{Customer} wants enterprise SDK, $400K budget"

1. Type: sales
2. Read /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/reference/sales-threads.md
3. Create threads/sales/{customer}-enterprise/
4. Invoke causal-flow-input (Stage 1)
5. Invoke causal-flow-hypothesis (Stage 2)
6. ... continue through Stage 6

Available Resources

Stage Skills

• /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/stages/causal-flow-input/SKILL.md
• /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/stages/causal-flow-hypothesis/SKILL.md
• /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/stages/causal-flow-implication/SKILL.md
• /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/stages/causal-flow-decision/SKILL.md
• /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/stages/causal-flow-actions/SKILL.md
• /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/stages/causal-flow-learning/SKILL.md

Reference Documentation

• /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/reference/business-threads.md
• /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/reference/sales-threads.md
• /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/reference/marketing-threads.md
• /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/reference/engineering-threads.md

Action Templates

• /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/actions/templates/sales-*.md
• /mnt/project/Causal_Flow_Skill/actions/templates/marketing-*.md

Success Criteria

✓ Evidence-based: Starts with factual observation (Stage 1) ✓ Hypothesis-driven: Challenges assumptions (Stage 2) ✓ Impact-analyzed: Full cost/benefit (Stage 3) ✓ Traceable: Complete audit trail (Stages 1-6) ✓ Self-correcting: Canvas updates (Stage 6) ✓ Autonomous: AI executes >95% ✓ Strategic: Human review only when flagged

Remember

Every decision—business, sales, or marketing—flows through 6 stages. No shortcuts.

This orchestrator:

• Routes to appropriate thread type
• Loads thread-specific architecture
• Invokes stage skills sequentially
• Monitors progress

This orchestrator does NOT:

• Execute stage logic (delegate to stage skills)
• Know stage execution details (stage skills handle)
• Contain reference material (load on-demand)