revenue-forecasting
Projects future MRR, ARR, and revenue run-rate from current Stripe subscription trends, new-sub velocity, and churn. Use when the user asks "revenue forecast", "MRR projection", "where will we be in 6 months", "ARR run-rate", or "growth trajectory". For current MRR only, see mrr-arr-snapshot.
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- appeeky/stripe-skills
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- 2026年7月19日 10:10
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- revenue-forecasting
- description
- Projects future MRR, ARR, and revenue run-rate from current Stripe subscription trends, new-sub velocity, and churn. Use when the user asks "revenue forecast", "MRR projection", "where will we be in 6 months", "ARR run-rate", or "growth trajectory". For current MRR only, see mrr-arr-snapshot.
- metadata
- {"version":"1.0.0"}
# Revenue Forecasting
## Stripe MCP Setup
Requires **Stripe MCP** (https://docs.stripe.com/mcp). `GetMcpTools` before `CallMcpTool`. Paginate all lists (`limit: 100`, `starting_after` while `has_more`). Amounts in **cents**. Read-only for audits; confirm before writes.
## Inputs to gather
1. Current MRR (via `mrr-arr-snapshot` logic)
2. New subs / month — count `active` subs created in last 30/60/90d (`created` filter)
3. Monthly churn % (via `churn-analysis`)
4. Avg new MRR per sub
## Model (simple)
```
Next month MRR = current_MRR * (1 - churn_rate) + new_MRR_added
```
Project 3/6/12 months. Show best / base / worst (churn +/-2pp, growth +/-20%).
## Output Template
```
Revenue Forecast (base case)
Current MRR: $[X] | Monthly growth: [+X%] | Churn: [X%]
| Month | MRR (worst) | MRR (base) | MRR (best) |
|-------|-------------|------------|------------|
| +3 | | | |
| +6 | | | |
| +12 | | | |
ARR run-rate (12mo base): $[X]
Key assumption risks: [list]
```
State all assumptions explicitly. Forecast quality degrades past 6 months.
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