supply-chain-risk

name	supply-chain-risk
description	Assess supply chain risks including single-source dependencies, geographic concentration, disruption scenarios, mitigation strategies, and contingency planning. TRIGGER when: user says /supply-chain-risk, "supply chain risk", "disruption assessment", "supply risk analysis", "resilience assessment", "contingency plan".
argument-hint	[scope/product-line] [risk-category] [scenario]
user-invocable	true

Supply Chain Risk Assessment

Identify, quantify, and mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities to build operational resilience against disruptions ranging from supplier failures to global crises.

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Input Gathering

Input	Description	Required
Supply chain map	Tier 1 and Tier 2+ suppliers, locations, dependencies	Yes
Bill of materials (BOM)	Components, sources, lead times, alternate parts	Yes
Historical disruption log	Past incidents, duration, financial impact, resolution	Yes
Supplier risk data	Financial health, geographic risk, single-source flags	Yes
Revenue and margin data	Product contribution to prioritize risk focus	No
Insurance and contract terms	Force majeure clauses, business interruption coverage	No
Geopolitical intelligence	Trade policy changes, sanctions, tariff risks	No

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Step-by-Step Process

Step 1 — Supply Chain Mapping and Dependency Analysis

Build a multi-tier supply chain map:

Analysis Layer	What to Map	Tool / Method
Tier 1 suppliers	Direct suppliers by commodity and spend	ERP / procurement data
Tier 2+ suppliers	Sub-suppliers of critical Tier 1s	Supplier disclosure, databases
Geographic nodes	Manufacturing sites, warehouses, ports, border crossings	Network mapping
Logistics routes	Primary and alternate shipping lanes	TMS / carrier data
Information systems	EDI connections, shared platforms, cloud dependencies	IT architecture review

Identify single points of failure: any node whose removal would halt production or delivery.

Step 2 — Risk Identification and Categorization

Catalog risks across six domains:

Risk Domain	Example Risks	Typical Indicators
Supplier risk	Bankruptcy, quality failure, capacity shortfall	Financial ratios, audit findings
Demand risk	Sudden demand spike/collapse, forecast error	Demand variability, market signals
Operational risk	Equipment failure, labor disruption, IT outage	Maintenance logs, incident history
Environmental risk	Natural disaster, pandemic, climate events	Hazard maps, epidemiological data
Geopolitical risk	Trade wars, sanctions, regulatory changes, conflict	Country risk indices, policy tracking
Cyber risk	Ransomware, data breach, system compromise	Vulnerability scans, threat intel

For each risk, document the trigger event, affected nodes, and propagation path through the network.

Step 3 — Risk Quantification

Score each identified risk using a probability-impact matrix:

Probability Scale:

Rating	Probability	Description
1	< 5%	Rare — unlikely in next 3 years
2	5-15%	Unlikely — possible but not expected
3	15-40%	Possible — could occur within 1 year
4	40-70%	Likely — expected within 12 months
5	> 70%	Almost certain — imminent or recurring

Impact Scale:

Rating	Financial Impact	Operational Impact
1	< $100K	Minor delay, no customer impact
2	$100K - $1M	Short delay, limited customer impact
3	$1M - $10M	Significant delay, some orders affected
4	$10M - $50M	Major disruption, widespread order delays
5	> $50M	Catastrophic, production halt, brand damage

Risk Score = Probability x Impact (range: 1-25).

Classify: Low (1-5), Medium (6-12), High (13-19), Critical (20-25).

Step 4 — Disruption Scenario Modeling

Develop and analyze 3-5 realistic disruption scenarios:

Scenario	Duration	Revenue Impact	Recovery Time	Probability
Single critical supplier failure	4-12 weeks	$X M	8-16 weeks	Medium
Port closure / logistics blockage	2-6 weeks	$X M	4-8 weeks	Medium
Regional natural disaster	2-8 weeks	$X M	6-20 weeks	Low-Medium
Pandemic / workforce disruption	8-26 weeks	$X M	12-52 weeks	Low
Cyber attack on key system	1-4 weeks	$X M	2-8 weeks	Medium

For each scenario, model the cascading effects through the supply chain: which products are affected, which customers impacted, and what is the time-phased financial exposure.

Step 5 — Mitigation Strategy Development

Define mitigation actions mapped to the highest-priority risks:

Strategy	Applicable Risks	Investment Level	Risk Reduction
Dual / multi-sourcing	Supplier failure, capacity	Medium	High
Safety stock buffering	Demand, supplier, logistics	Medium	Medium
Near-shoring / reshoring	Geopolitical, logistics	High	High
Contractual protections	Supplier, compliance	Low	Medium
Supplier development	Quality, capacity	Medium	Medium
Digital supply chain twin	All operational risks	High	Medium-High
Insurance / hedging	Environmental, financial	Low-Medium	Medium
Inventory pre-positioning	Logistics, environmental	Medium	Medium

Assign each mitigation an owner, budget, and implementation timeline.

Step 6 — Contingency Planning and Response Playbooks

Create actionable playbooks for each critical scenario:

Playbook Component	Content
Trigger criteria	Specific conditions that activate the playbook
Incident commander	Named role with decision authority
Communication plan	Internal escalation + customer/partner notification
Immediate actions (0-48h)	Secure supply, activate alternates, assess scope
Short-term actions (1-4 wk)	Reallocate inventory, expedite alternatives, manage demand
Recovery actions (1-6 mo)	Qualify new sources, rebuild buffer, root cause analysis
Post-incident review	Lessons learned, playbook updates, metric recalibration

Test playbooks through tabletop exercises at least annually.

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Output Format

## Supply Chain Risk Assessment — [Scope] — [Date]

### Executive Summary
- Total risks identified: [count]
- Critical risks: [count] | High: [count] | Medium: [count] | Low: [count]
- Maximum single-event exposure: [$X M]
- Current resilience score: [X/100]
- Top 3 risks requiring immediate action: [list]

### Supply Chain Map Findings
- Single-source dependencies: [count] ([% of critical components])
- Geographic concentration: [top 3 locations and % of supply]
- Tier 2+ visibility: [% mapped]

### Risk Register
| ID  | Risk Description          | Domain       | Probability | Impact | Score | Trend | Owner |
|-----|---------------------------|--------------|-------------|--------|-------|-------|-------|
| R01 | ...                       | ...          | ...         | ...    | ...   | ...   | ...   |
| R02 | ...                       | ...          | ...         | ...    | ...   | ...   | ...   |

### Scenario Analysis Summary
| Scenario                     | Exposure    | Recovery Time | Preparedness |
|------------------------------|-------------|---------------|--------------|
| ...                          | ...         | ...           | ...          |

### Mitigation Plan
| Risk ID | Mitigation Action           | Owner | Budget | Timeline   | Status |
|---------|-----------------------------|-------|--------|------------|--------|
| R01     | ...                         | ...   | ...    | ...        | ...    |

### Contingency Readiness
| Scenario            | Playbook Status | Last Tested | Next Exercise |
|---------------------|-----------------|-------------|---------------|
| ...                 | ...             | ...         | ...           |

### Recommendations
1. [Immediate actions — next 30 days]
2. [Short-term investments — next quarter]
3. [Strategic initiatives — next 12 months]

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Quality Checklist

• Supply chain mapped to at least Tier 2 for critical components
• All single-source dependencies identified and documented
• Risk register covers all six domains (supplier, demand, operational, environmental, geopolitical, cyber)
• Probability and impact scores based on data, not assumptions alone
• At least 3 disruption scenarios modeled with financial exposure estimates
• Mitigation strategies assigned to specific owners with budgets
• Contingency playbooks drafted for the top 3 critical scenarios
• Playbooks tested via tabletop exercise within the last 12 months
• Risk assessment reviewed and approved by senior leadership
• Monitoring cadence established: critical risks monthly, all risks quarterly

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Edge Cases

• Complete lack of Tier 2+ visibility: Use industry databases, supplier questionnaires, and third-party mapping services; start with the highest-spend Tier 1s and work backward.
• Emerging risk with no historical precedent: Use analogous events from other industries; conduct structured expert elicitation; apply scenario planning rather than probabilistic models.
• Interconnected risks (cascading failure): Model dependencies between risks using fault trees or bow-tie analysis; a single event may trigger multiple simultaneous failures.
• Global pandemic or systemic crisis: Standard risk scoring underweights correlated, system-wide events; supplement with stress testing that assumes multiple simultaneous failures.
• Supplier unwilling to disclose sub-tier information: Invoke contractual transparency clauses; use third-party intelligence; treat opacity itself as a risk factor that raises the supplier's score.
• Rapidly changing geopolitical environment: Increase risk review frequency from quarterly to monthly; subscribe to real-time trade policy and sanctions alert services; pre-qualify alternative sources in stable regions.