anti-false-positive-decision-making

name

anti-false-positive-decision-making

description

Guides decision frameworks when false positives are costly—thresholds, evidence bars, and escalation so actions are not taken on weak signals. Covers FP/FN trade-offs, base rates, corroboration, tiered response (monitor vs act), security/compliance alert tuning, screening workflows, HITL gates, precision/recall/FDR, decision rationale docs, and alert fatigue. Use when the user mentions false positive, reduce false positives, alert tuning, too many false alarms, precision vs recall, when to escalate, evidence threshold, anti false positive, decision threshold, base rate, corroboration before action, alert fatigue, screening false positive, or don't block on weak signal—not for production ML classifiers (data-scientist, ml-ops-engineer), legal determinations (commercial-counsel), detection rules without decision policy (domain security/AML skills), or generic brainstorming (executive-mentor).

Anti-False-Positive Decision Making

When to Use

• Calibrate when to act vs monitor when false positives block users, delay revenue, or burn analyst capacity
• Design evidence bars and multi-signal corroboration before irreversible actions (block, freeze, terminate, auto-remediate)
• Tune security, fraud, or compliance alerts with explicit FP/FN trade-offs and base-rate context
• Define tiered response paths and human-in-the-loop gates for screening and monitoring workflows
• Choose metrics (precision, recall, FDR) and review cadence for alert quality—not model training alone
• Document decision rationale for auditors, regulators, or post-incident review when disposition matters
• Reduce alert fatigue and over-blocking without silently accepting unacceptable false negatives

When NOT to Use

• Train, deploy, or optimize production ML classifiers (feature engineering, hyperparameters, MLOps) → data-scientist, ml-ops-engineer
• Legal conclusions, sanctions determinations, or contract interpretation → commercial-counsel
• Author detection rules or queries only with no decision policy, escalation, or disposition framework → information-security-engineer, defensive-security-analyst, aml-compliance (as primary)
• Generic strategy stress-tests without operational decision design → executive-mentor
• Full AML program design, KYC policy, or STR narrative drafting → aml-compliance, str-report
• Internal audit workpapers and control effectiveness sampling → auditor
• Pre-flight architecture or build validation without alert/disposition lens → build-validator

Related skills

Need	Skill
Security control implementation, SIEM/EDR integration	information-security-engineer
Technical compliance evidence and CCM pipelines	compliance-engineer
AML TM scenarios, alert triage, SAR paths	aml-compliance
Behavioral risk heuristics (volume, velocity, transit)	Use behavioral-risk-screening-concepts (blockint bundle) for UI/workflow concepts
AI system risk tiers, model governance, policy gates	ai-risk-governance
Incident severity, escalation, on-call design	incident-management-engineer
Audit sampling, deficiency write-ups, control testing	auditor
SOC triage and shift operations	soc-analyst
Detection content and hunt hypotheses	defensive-security-analyst
Plan/design go-no-go before execution	build-validator
Security risk registers and treatment decisions	security-risk-analyst

Core Workflows

1. Frame the decision and costs

1. Name the action (block, freeze, escalate, auto-close, notify, quarantine)
2. List cost of false positive (customer harm, ops load, revenue, reputation, legal exposure from over-action)
3. List cost of false negative (fraud loss, breach, regulatory miss, safety)
4. Estimate base rate or prevalence band for the population (see reference)
5. Set explicit risk appetite for this decision class (who approves exceptions)

See references/anti_fp_decision_scope.md for scope, boundaries, and handoffs.

2. Set evidence bar and corroboration

signal(s) → minimum evidence tier → optional corroboration → disposition → audit record

• Define single-signal vs multi-signal requirements before irreversible action
• Prefer independent evidence types (rule + graph + human review; not two copies of same feature)
• Document what would falsify the hypothesis before closing as benign

See references/evidence_bars_and_corroboration.md.

3. Map FP/FN trade-offs and thresholds

• Plot operating points: stricter threshold → fewer FPs, more FNs (usually)
• Use base rate to interpret raw alert rates; avoid judging rules on volume alone
• Segment by customer tier, geography, product, or asset criticality where policy differs

See references/fp_fn_tradeoffs_and_base_rates.md.

4. Design tiered response and HITL gates

Tier	Typical disposition	Automation allowed
0 — Observe	Log, aggregate metrics	Yes
1 — Soft signal	Queue, enrich, no customer impact	Yes with caps
2 — Review required	Analyst disposition before action	Human or timed SLA
3 — Contain	Reversible hold (pending review)	Policy + dual control
4 — Irreversible	Block, SAR, account closure	Executive / MLRO / legal path

See references/tiered_response_and_hitl_gates.md.

5. Tune alerts in security and compliance contexts

• Govern threshold changes: hypothesis, backtest, approval, post-change review
• Separate detection quality from workflow quality (routing, SLAs, training)
• Track precision at disposition and time-to-benign-close, not alert count alone

See references/security_compliance_alert_tuning.md.

6. Measure, calibrate, and document

• Define metrics owners and review cadence (weekly ops, quarterly risk)
• Record rationale template on every material disposition
• Run calibration reviews: sample closed-as-benign and closed-as-true-positive

See references/metrics_calibration_and_documentation.md.

When to load references

Topic	Reference
Scope, boundaries, peer handoffs	references/anti_fp_decision_scope.md
FP/FN, base rates, prevalence	references/fp_fn_tradeoffs_and_base_rates.md
Evidence tiers and corroboration	references/evidence_bars_and_corroboration.md
Alert tuning (security, compliance, screening)	references/security_compliance_alert_tuning.md
Tiered response and HITL gates	references/tiered_response_and_hitl_gates.md
Metrics, calibration, audit trail	references/metrics_calibration_and_documentation.md