sports-analyst

name	sports-analyst
description	Sports statistics and analysis tool covering fantasy sports strategy, player evaluation metrics by sport, team analysis frameworks, betting basics (educational), draft strategy, season prediction models, and historical comparisons. Use when the user asks about sports analyst, or needs help with sports statistics and analysis tool covering fantasy sports strategy, player evaluation metrics by sport, team analysis frameworks, betting basics (educational), draft strategy, season prediction models, and historical comparisons. Do NOT use when the request requires professional medical advice or falls outside the scope of sports analyst.
license	Apache-2.0
metadata	{"author":"foundry-skills","version":"1.0.0","tags":"health-wellness fitness guide","category":"health-wellness","subcategory":"fitness-exercise","depends":"","disclaimer":"not-medical-advice","difficulty":"intermediate"}

Sports Analyst

Disclaimer: This skill provides general wellness and health information for educational purposes only. It does NOT constitute medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for professional medical judgment. Always consult a qualified healthcare professional before making decisions about your health, starting a new fitness program, or changing your diet. If you are experiencing a medical emergency, contact emergency services immediately.

NOTE: Sports betting information is provided for educational purposes only. Gambling involves financial risk. This skill does not encourage or endorse sports gambling. Always comply with local laws regarding sports betting. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, contact the National Council on Problem Gambling helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

When to Use

Use this skill when:

• User asks about sports analyst
• User needs guidance on sports analyst topics
• User wants a structured approach to sports analyst

Do NOT use when:

• Request requires professional consultation beyond educational guidance
• User needs emergency assistance

Questions to Ask the User First

1. What sport are you analyzing? (Baseball / Basketball / Football / Soccer / Hockey / Other)
2. What is your analysis goal? (Fantasy sports / Player evaluation / Team analysis / Historical comparison / Betting education / Draft prep)
3. What is your knowledge level? (Casual fan / Knowledgeable fan / Statistical enthusiast / Professional analyst)
4. What specific question do you want answered? (Player comparison / Trade evaluation / Draft pick / Matchup analysis / Season projection)
5. What data period are you interested in? (Current season / Last 3 seasons / Career / Historical era)
6. Fantasy format? (If applicable: Standard / PPR / Half-PPR / Points league / Roto / H2H categories)

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Player Evaluation Metrics by Sport

Baseball (MLB)

Hitting Metrics

Metric	Full Name	What It Measures	Good/Elite
AVG	Batting Average	Hits per at-bat	.270 / .300+
OBP	On-Base Percentage	Times reaching base / plate appearances	.340 / .380+
SLG	Slugging Percentage	Total bases / at-bats	.430 / .500+
OPS	On-Base Plus Slugging	OBP + SLG	.770 / .900+
OPS+	Adjusted OPS	OPS adjusted for park and league (100 = avg)	110 / 140+
wOBA	Weighted On-Base Average	Comprehensive offensive value	.320 / .370+
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus	Runs created adjusted (100 = avg)	110 / 140+
WAR	Wins Above Replacement	Total player value in wins	3 / 6+
ISO	Isolated Power	SLG - AVG (raw power)	.150 / .220+
BABIP	Batting Avg on Balls in Play	Luck/skill indicator	.290-.310 avg
BB%	Walk Rate	Walks / plate appearances	9% / 13%+
K%	Strikeout Rate	Strikeouts / plate appearances	<20% / <15%
HR/FB	Home Run to Fly Ball Ratio	Power on fly balls	12% / 18%+

Pitching Metrics

Metric	Full Name	What It Measures	Good/Elite
ERA	Earned Run Average	Earned runs per 9 innings	3.50 / 2.80
ERA+	Adjusted ERA	ERA adjusted (100 = avg, higher is better)	115 / 140+
FIP	Fielding Independent Pitching	Pitching independent of defense	3.40 / 2.80
xFIP	Expected FIP	FIP with normalized HR/FB rate	3.40 / 2.80
WHIP	Walks + Hits per IP	Baserunners allowed per inning	1.20 / 1.00
K/9	Strikeouts per 9	Strikeout rate	8.5 / 10.5+
BB/9	Walks per 9	Control measure	2.8 / 2.0
K/BB	Strikeout to Walk Ratio	Command efficiency	3.0 / 4.5+
WAR	Wins Above Replacement	Total pitcher value	3 / 6+
SIERA	Skill-Interactive ERA	Advanced ERA estimator	3.40 / 2.80

Baseball Analysis Framework

HITTER EVALUATION TEMPLATE:
Player: _______________
Season/Period: _________

Contact Quality:     AVG: ___ | BABIP: ___ | K%: ___ | Contact%: ___
Power:               SLG: ___ | ISO: ___ | HR: ___ | HR/FB: ___
Plate Discipline:    OBP: ___ | BB%: ___ | O-Swing%: ___ | Z-Contact%: ___
Overall Value:       wRC+: ___ | WAR: ___ | OPS+: ___
Baserunning:         SB: ___ | CS: ___ | BsR: ___

Trend: [Improving / Stable / Declining]
Sustainability Flags: [BABIP outlier? / HR/FB outlier? / Age concern?]

Basketball (NBA)

Key Metrics

Metric	Full Name	What It Measures	Good/Elite
PER	Player Efficiency Rating	Per-minute productivity (15 = avg)	18 / 25+
TS%	True Shooting Percentage	Scoring efficiency including FT and 3PT	56% / 62%+
USG%	Usage Rate	Percentage of team plays used	22% / 30%+
BPM	Box Plus/Minus	Points per 100 possessions vs average	2 / 6+
VORP	Value Over Replacement Player	Total value over replacement	2 / 5+
WS	Win Shares	Wins contributed	5 / 10+
WS/48	Win Shares per 48 min	Per-minute win contribution	.100 / .200+
RAPTOR	Robust Algorithm (FiveThirtyEight)	Total on-court impact	+2 / +6+
RPM	Real Plus-Minus	On/off court impact adjusted	+2 / +5+
AST%	Assist Percentage	Percentage of teammate FGs assisted	20% / 35%+
REB%	Rebound Percentage	Percentage of available rebounds	10% / 18%+
STL%	Steal Percentage	Steals per 100 possessions	1.5% / 2.5%+
BLK%	Block Percentage	Blocks per 100 possessions	2% / 5%+
ORTG	Offensive Rating	Points per 100 possessions	110 / 118+
DRTG	Defensive Rating	Points allowed per 100 poss (lower=better)	108 / 104
Net Rating	ORTG - DRTG	Overall impact	+3 / +8+

Basketball Analysis Framework

PLAYER EVALUATION TEMPLATE:
Player: _______________
Season: _______________

Scoring: PPG: ___ | TS%: ___ | USG%: ___ | FTA Rate: ___
Playmaking: APG: ___ | AST%: ___ | TOV%: ___ | AST/TOV: ___
Rebounding: RPG: ___ | REB%: ___ | OREB%: ___ | DREB%: ___
Defense: STL%: ___ | BLK%: ___ | DRTG: ___ | DWS: ___
Overall: PER: ___ | BPM: ___ | WS: ___ | VORP: ___

Role: [Star / Starter / Rotation / Bench]
Strengths: _______________
Weaknesses: _______________
Comparable Player: _______________

Football (NFL)

Quarterback Metrics

Metric	Full Name	What It Measures	Good/Elite
QBR	Total Quarterback Rating	ESPN's comprehensive QB metric (0-100)	60 / 75+
Passer Rating	NFL Passer Rating	Traditional QB efficiency (0-158.3)	90 / 100+
ANY/A	Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt	Yards per attempt with sacks, TDs, INTs	6.5 / 7.5+
CPOE	Completion % Over Expected	Accuracy above expected	1% / 4%+
EPA/Play	Expected Points Added/Play	Points added per play vs expected	0.10 / 0.20+
DVOA	Defense-adjusted Value Over Average	Efficiency vs average (Football Outsiders)	10% / 25%+
ADOT	Average Depth of Target	Average air yards per attempt	Context-dependent
Pressure Rate	Pressured Dropbacks	Times pressured / dropbacks	<25% is good OL

Skill Position Metrics

Metric	Position	What It Measures	Good/Elite
YPC	RB	Yards per carry	4.2 / 4.8+
YAC	WR/TE	Yards after catch	4.0 / 5.5+
Target Share	WR/TE	% of team targets	20% / 25%+
YPRR	WR	Yards per route run	1.75 / 2.25+
Catch Rate	WR/TE	Catches / targets	65% / 75%+
Separation	WR	Average separation at catch	2.5+ yards
Missed Tackles Forced	RB	Elusiveness metric	0.15+ per touch
Snap Count %	All	Playing time share	70%+ is starter

Football Analysis Framework

PLAYER EVALUATION TEMPLATE:
Player: _______________  Position: ___
Season: _______________

Production: [Key stats for position]
Efficiency: [EPA, DVOA, or per-play metrics]
Usage: [Snap%, Target Share, Carries]
Advanced: [Position-specific advanced metrics]
Situation: [Team context, schedule, injuries]

Fantasy Outlook:
Ceiling: ___  Floor: ___  Projection: ___
Risk Factors: _______________

Soccer (Football)

Key Metrics

Metric	What It Measures	Context
xG	Expected Goals	Goal probability based on shot quality
xA	Expected Assists	Assist probability based on pass quality
xG + xA per 90	Combined attacking output	Normalized to 90 minutes
Progressive Passes	Passes moving ball significantly forward	Creativity measure
Progressive Carries	Dribbles moving ball forward	Ball-carrying ability
Tackles + Interceptions per 90	Defensive actions	Defensive contribution
Pressing Actions per 90	High press triggers	Work rate / pressing
Pass Completion %	Accuracy of passing	Depends on role and pass type
Shot-Creating Actions	Actions leading to shots	Creativity
Goal-Creating Actions	Actions directly leading to goals	Decisive impact

Hockey (NHL)

Key Metrics

Metric	What It Measures	Good/Elite
CF%	Corsi For % (shot attempts)	52% / 56%+
xGF%	Expected Goals For %	52% / 56%+
P/60	Points per 60 minutes	2.0 / 3.0+
GAR	Goals Above Replacement	5 / 15+
WAR	Wins Above Replacement	1 / 3+
PDO	Shooting% + Save% (luck indicator)	~100 is normal
HDCF%	High-Danger Chances For %	52% / 56%+
iCF	Individual shot attempts	Volume of offense
IPP	Individual Points Percentage	% of team goals with a point
TOI	Time on Ice	Usage indicator

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Fantasy Sports Strategy

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

DRAFT POSITION STRATEGY:

Pick 1-3 (Early First Round):
- Target elite RB or top WR
- RB advantage: positional scarcity
- WR advantage: longevity, consistency

Pick 4-8 (Mid First Round):
- Best available RB/WR
- Consider elite TE (if one separates)
- Value over replacement matters most

Pick 9-12 (Late First Round):
- WR-WR or WR-RB start
- Late-round QB strategy viable
- Target high-upside players

ROUND-BY-ROUND FRAMEWORK:
Rounds 1-3: Core starters (RB/WR)
Rounds 4-6: Fill starting lineup (Flex, TE, QB)
Rounds 7-9: Depth and upside plays
Rounds 10-12: Backup QB, lottery tickets
Rounds 13+: Defense, kicker (last 2 picks)

KEY PRINCIPLES:
1. Value over replacement (VOR) drives decisions
2. Never reach for a position - take best available value
3. QB and TE can wait unless elite (top 2-3)
4. RB depth matters due to injury risk
5. Handcuff your top RBs in later rounds
6. Target high-upside late-round WRs

Fantasy Football Weekly Start/Sit Framework

START/SIT DECISION MATRIX:

Factor | Weight | Analysis
-------|--------|--------
Matchup (opponent defense rank) | 25% | Favorable or tough?
Recent form (last 3 games) | 25% | Trending up or down?
Usage/volume (snap%, targets) | 20% | Guaranteed touches?
Home/away | 10% | Home field advantage
Weather (outdoor games) | 10% | Wind, rain, cold affect passing
Injury status | 10% | Questionable? Limited practice?

SCORING: Rate each factor 1-5, multiply by weight
Score > 3.5: Strong start
Score 2.5-3.5: Borderline (consider alternatives)
Score < 2.5: Consider sitting

Fantasy Baseball Strategy

CATEGORY ANALYSIS (Roto/Categories):

Hitting Categories (Standard 5x5):
- R (Runs) - Correlated with OBP, lineup position
- HR (Home Runs) - Power hitters, HR/FB rate
- RBI (Runs Batted In) - Lineup position, team offense
- SB (Stolen Bases) - Speed, opportunity, green light
- AVG (Batting Average) - Contact rate, BABIP

Pitching Categories (Standard 5x5):
- W (Wins) - Team dependent, unreliable
- K (Strikeouts) - K rate x innings
- ERA - FIP and xERA are more predictive
- WHIP - BB rate + hit rate
- SV (Saves) - Closer role, volatile

DRAFT STRATEGY:
1. Stars and scrubs: Pay for elite talent, fill gaps with waiver wire
2. Balanced approach: Consistent contributors across categories
3. Punting strategy: Deliberately sacrifice 1-2 categories to dominate others

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Team Analysis Framework

Strength of Schedule Analysis Template

TEAM: _______________
SEASON: _______________

REMAINING SCHEDULE:
Opponent | Record | Ranking | Key Matchup Notes
---------|--------|---------|------------------
         |        |         |

STRENGTH METRICS:
Avg Opponent Win%: ___
Ranked Opponents Remaining: ___
Home/Away Split: ___
Division Games Remaining: ___
Rest Advantage/Disadvantage: ___

DIFFICULTY ASSESSMENT:
Easy stretch (weeks ___-___): ___
Tough stretch (weeks ___-___): ___
Overall SOS Rank: ___/32 (or league size)

Team Efficiency Analysis

TEAM EVALUATION:
Team: _______________

OFFENSE:
Points/Game: ___ (Rank: ___)
Yards/Play: ___ (Rank: ___)
Turnover Rate: ___
Red Zone Efficiency: ___
3rd Down Conversion: ___

DEFENSE:
Points Allowed/Game: ___ (Rank: ___)
Yards Allowed/Play: ___ (Rank: ___)
Takeaway Rate: ___
Red Zone Defense: ___
Sack Rate: ___

SPECIAL TEAMS:
FG%: ___
Punt Average: ___
Return Yards: ___

OVERALL:
Point Differential: ___ (Rank: ___)
Pythagorean Win Expectation: ___
Actual Record vs Expected: ___

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Season Prediction Models

Pythagorean Win Expectation

FORMULA:
Win% = (Points Scored^exp) / (Points Scored^exp + Points Allowed^exp)

Exponents by sport:
- Baseball: 1.83 (or 2 for simplified)
- Basketball: 13.91
- Football: 2.37
- Hockey: 2.05



USE CASE:
- Teams that outperform Pythagorean record may regress
- Teams that underperform may improve
- Indicator of "luck" in close games

Simple ELO Rating Explanation

ELO SYSTEM:
- Each team starts with a base rating (1500)
- Winners gain points, losers lose points
- Amount gained/lost depends on:
  * Expected outcome (upset = more points transferred)
  * Margin of victory (bigger wins = more adjustment)
  * Home-field advantage (built into expected outcome)

INTERPRETING ELO:
1700+ : Elite / Championship contender
1550-1700 : Playoff team
1450-1550 : Average
1350-1450 : Below average
Below 1350 : Rebuilding / Bottom tier

APPLICATIONS:
- Game-by-game win probability
- Season win total projections
- Power rankings
- Historical team comparisons

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Historical Comparisons Framework

PLAYER COMPARISON TEMPLATE:

Player A: _______________  |  Player B: _______________
Era: _______________       |  Era: _______________

Metric        | Player A | Player B | Advantage
-------------|----------|----------|----------
[Metric 1]   |          |          |
[Metric 2]   |          |          |
[Metric 3]   |          |          |
[Metric 4]   |          |          |
[Metric 5]   |          |          |

ERA ADJUSTMENT NOTES:
- [Rule changes affecting comparison]
- [League-wide trend differences]
- [Schedule/competition level differences]

PEAK vs LONGEVITY:
Peak Seasons (Player A): ___ seasons above elite threshold
Peak Seasons (Player B): ___ seasons above elite threshold
Career Totals Comparison: ___

CONCLUSION:
[Nuanced comparison considering era, role, and context]

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Betting Basics (Educational Only)

Common Bet Types Explained

Bet Type	Description	Example
Moneyline	Pick the winner	Team A -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Spread	Margin of victory	Team A -7.5 (must win by 8+)
Over/Under (Total)	Combined score	Over 48.5 (teams combine for 49+)
Parlay	Multiple bets combined	All legs must hit for payout
Prop Bet	Individual stat/event	Player X over 25.5 points
Futures	Season-long outcome	Team X to win championship

Understanding Odds

AMERICAN ODDS:
-150: Bet $150 to win $100 (favorite)
+200: Bet $100 to win $200 (underdog)

IMPLIED PROBABILITY:
Favorite: Risk / (Risk + Profit) x 100
  -150: 150 / (150 + 100) x 100 = 60%

Underdog: 100 / (Odds + 100) x 100
  +200: 100 / (200 + 100) x 100 = 33.3%

THE VIG (JUICE):
- Sportsbooks add margin to both sides
- Example: -110 on both sides of a 50/50 bet
- Implied probability: 52.4% each side (total 104.8%)
- The 4.8% over 100% is the book's edge

Key Concepts

IMPORTANT EDUCATIONAL NOTES:
1. The house always has an edge (the vig/juice)
2. Parlays significantly increase the house edge
3. Sharp money (professional bettors) moves lines
4. Line movement indicates where money is flowing
5. Injuries and weather can dramatically affect outcomes
6. Past results do not guarantee future performance
7. Bankroll management is critical for anyone who bets
8. Never bet more than you can afford to lose
9. Chasing losses leads to larger losses
10. Most bettors lose long-term

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Output Format

When providing sports analysis, present it as:

ANALYSIS: [Type - Player/Team/Matchup/Draft]
Sport: [Sport]
Context: [Fantasy / Evaluation / Comparison]

SUMMARY:
[1-2 sentence overview]

KEY METRICS:
Metric | Value | League Rank/Percentile | Trend
-------|-------|------------------------|------
       |       |                        |

ANALYSIS:
[Detailed breakdown with context]

COMPARABLE PLAYERS/SITUATIONS:
[Historical or current comparisons]

RECOMMENDATION:
[Actionable insight based on analysis goal]

CONFIDENCE LEVEL: [High / Medium / Low]
KEY RISKS: [Factors that could change the analysis]

Example

Input: "Help me get started with sports analyst"

Output: A structured sports analyst plan tailored to the user's specific situation, following the process outlined above.

Edge Cases

• Incomplete information: Ask clarifying questions before proceeding. Do not assume details the user has not provided.
• Out of scope requests: Redirect to appropriate professional resources when the request exceeds educational guidance.
• Conflicting requirements: Present trade-offs clearly and let the user decide priorities.