critical-uncertainties

name	critical-uncertainties
description	Use when a decision depends on a few uncertain variables whose direction could materially change the plan. Use when applying critical uncertainties, uncertainty mapping, scenario driver selection, strategic uncertainty review, or signpost planning.
license	Apache-2.0

Critical Uncertainties

Use this skill to identify which unknowns matter most and how to monitor them.

Method Notes

• A critical uncertainty is both highly uncertain and highly consequential.
• The method prevents false confidence when one forecast is not enough.
• It can feed scenario planning, validation plans, stakeholder strategy, and risk control.

Required Inputs

Collect or infer these inputs before execution:

• decision question or strategic choice
• possible uncertainties
• decision time horizon
• consequences of different outcomes
• early indicators or data sources when available

If an input is missing, mark it as missing, state the assumption used, and add a validation action.

When Not To Use

Do not use for ordinary risks with known mitigation paths. Use risk-matrix or pre-mortem instead.

Step-by-Step Execution

Step	Required input	How to execute	Output
Define the decision horizon	Decision question, time horizon, action deadline.	State how far ahead the uncertainty matters.	Decision horizon.
List uncertainties	Unknowns, external variables, stakeholder unknowns, market shifts.	Write each uncertainty as a variable that can move in more than one direction.	Uncertainty list.
Rate uncertainty and impact	Evidence, volatility, consequence, controllability.	Rate uncertainty and impact as high / medium / low.	Uncertainty-impact table.
Select critical uncertainties	Rating table.	Choose the 1-3 uncertainties with high impact and high uncertainty.	Critical uncertainty set.
Define poles or outcomes	Critical uncertainties.	For each, define plausible opposite states or outcome ranges.	Uncertainty poles.
Create signposts	Evidence sources, leading indicators, stakeholder signals.	Define early signs that show which way the uncertainty is moving.	Signpost list.
Link to actions	Current plan, options, thresholds.	Decide what to do under each signal.	Contingent action logic.

Output Template

### 1. Decision Frame
- Decision question:
- Time horizon:
- Why uncertainty matters:

### 2. Uncertainty Map
| Uncertainty | Impact | Uncertainty | Controllability | Why it matters | Critical? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|  | high / medium / low | high / medium / low | high / medium / low |  | yes / no |

### 3. Critical Uncertainties
| Critical uncertainty | Possible direction A | Possible direction B | Signposts to watch | Action if A | Action if B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  |  |  |  |

### 4. Decision Implication
- Robust action regardless of uncertainty:
- Action to delay until signal improves:
- Decision gate:

Quality Gate

• Do not confuse uncertainty with general risk.
• A useful uncertainty must have more than one plausible outcome.
• Focus on variables that would change the plan.
• Include signposts, not just abstract possibilities.
• Keep output concrete enough to guide monitoring and next action.