hypothesis-tree

name	hypothesis-tree
description	Use when analysis should proceed by testing likely explanations rather than describing the whole situation. Use when applying the Hypothesis Tree consulting method and when a user asks for Hypothesis Tree, method execution, structured diagnosis, or action planning.
license	Apache-2.0

Hypothesis Tree

Use this skill to run Hypothesis Tree as a practical consulting method, not as a generic framework explanation.

Method Notes

• Each branch must be testable.
• Define disconfirmation evidence, not only supporting evidence.

Required Inputs

Collect or infer these inputs before execution:

• core question
• candidate explanations
• available evidence
• decision deadline

If an input is missing, do not block automatically. Mark it as missing, state the assumption used, and add a validation action.

When Not To Use

Do not use without a decision question and branches that can be tested with evidence. For open-ended exploration before hypotheses are available, use a mind map or affinity diagram.

Adjacent Methods

• issue-tree: decompose the question into analysis branches before proposing explanations.
• abductive-reasoning: rank the best current explanation from incomplete evidence.

Step-by-Step Execution

Step	Required input	How to execute	Output
Frame hypothesis area	Problem, observed outcome, decision need.	State what explanation or bet needs testing.	Hypothesis frame.
Create competing hypotheses	Known facts and plausible causes.	List alternative explanations or strategic bets.	Top-level hypotheses.
Break into sub-hypotheses	Top-level hypotheses.	Make each branch testable and specific.	Hypothesis tree.
Define tests	Hypothesis tree and available evidence.	Specify supporting evidence and disconfirming evidence for each leaf.	Test plan.
Prioritize tests	Test plan, impact, speed, uncertainty.	Choose fastest tests that could change the decision.	Testing sequence.

Output Template

### 1. Decision Question
Question:
Scope:
Current evidence:
Decision deadline:

### 2. Competing Hypotheses
| Hypothesis | Sub-hypotheses | Evidence for | Evidence against | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  |  |  |

### 3. Disconfirming Tests
| Hypothesis | Cheapest decisive test | Owner | Timing | Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  |  |  |

### 4. Priority
First hypothesis to test:
Why:
Decision unlocked:

### Evidence And Next Decision
- Confirmed facts:
- Assumptions:
- Missing evidence:
- Next action, owner, and timing:
- Expected signal and decision threshold:

Quality Gate

• Produce the method-specific outputs for Decision Question, Competing Hypotheses, Disconfirming Tests; do not substitute a generic framework summary.
• Tie every material score, causal claim, or stakeholder judgment to evidence or label it as an assumption.
• Include at least one disconfirming check, sensitivity, alternative explanation, or failure condition appropriate to the method.
• Convert the result into a named action or decision with an owner or stakeholder, timing, and observable signal.
• State missing inputs and the smallest validation action instead of inventing precision.
• Keep wording professional and plain enough that a smart non-specialist can use the output directly.