metrics-tree

name	metrics-tree
description	Use when a decision or plan needs measurable success criteria, driver logic, and diagnostic metrics. Use when applying the Metrics Tree consulting method and when a user asks for Metrics Tree, method execution, structured diagnosis, or action planning.
license	Apache-2.0

Metrics Tree

Use this skill to run Metrics Tree as a practical consulting method, not as a generic framework explanation.

Method Notes

• Start with one outcome, then decompose drivers and leading indicators.
• Add guardrails to prevent gaming or local optimization.

Required Inputs

Collect or infer these inputs before execution:

• north-star outcome
• business model or process
• available data
• owners

If an input is missing, do not block automatically. Mark it as missing, state the assumption used, and add a validation action.

When Not To Use

Do not use before the outcome metric and decision purpose are defined, or when proposed driver relationships cannot be tested. A metrics tree explains performance logic; it is not a dashboard inventory.

Adjacent Methods

• north-star-metric: select one leading expression of delivered value.
• balanced-scorecard: balance financial, customer, process, and capability objectives.

Step-by-Step Execution

Step	Required input	How to execute	Output
Define top outcome	Business/product objective and time window.	Write the outcome metric and why it matters.	Top metric.
Decompose drivers	Business model, funnel, process, user behavior.	Break the outcome into mathematical or causal drivers.	Driver tree.
Add leading indicators	Driver tree and process timing.	Identify measures that move before the top outcome changes.	Leading indicator set.
Add guardrails	Risk, quality, cost, customer experience, fairness constraints.	Choose metrics that prevent gaming.	Guardrail metrics.
Define operating use	Owners, data sources, review cadence.	Set formula, owner, threshold, and action trigger.	Metric operating plan.

Output Template

### 1. Outcome Definition
Top outcome:
Population / scope:
Time window:
Unit:

### 2. Driver Tree
| Level | Metric | Formula | Causal rationale | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  |  |  |

### 3. Leading Signals And Guardrails
| Metric | Type | Threshold | Data source | Risk controlled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  |  |  |

### 4. Operating Cadence
| Review | Frequency | Decision triggered | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  |  |

### Evidence And Next Decision
- Confirmed facts:
- Assumptions:
- Missing evidence:
- Next action, owner, and timing:
- Expected signal and decision threshold:

Quality Gate

• Produce the method-specific outputs for Outcome Definition, Driver Tree, Leading Signals And Guardrails; do not substitute a generic framework summary.
• Tie every material score, causal claim, or stakeholder judgment to evidence or label it as an assumption.
• Include at least one disconfirming check, sensitivity, alternative explanation, or failure condition appropriate to the method.
• Convert the result into a named action or decision with an owner or stakeholder, timing, and observable signal.
• State missing inputs and the smallest validation action instead of inventing precision.
• Keep wording professional and plain enough that a smart non-specialist can use the output directly.