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Map a scoped topic across three coexisting horizons — current system under strain (H1), preferred future (H3), and transition innovations sorted as H2+ or H2- — to understand change dynamics and identify responsible next actions.
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After scaffolded practice, run an unassisted check with no AI help. Use to distinguish supported performance from what the learner can currently do independently.
Review the week using accumulated session evidence — retrieval rates, hint depths, calibration accuracy, transfer and unassisted results. The learner identifies patterns and sets a strategy goal. Use weekly or after a multi-session period.
Design discipline-specific critical thinking tasks grounded in knowledge-contingent reasoning rather than generic skills. Use when embedding higher-order thinking into subject content.
基于 SOC 职业分类
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| name | three-horizons-learning-transition-mapper |
| description | Map a scoped topic across three coexisting horizons — current system under strain (H1), preferred future (H3), and transition innovations sorted as H2+ or H2- — to understand change dynamics and identify responsible next actions. |
| disable-model-invocation | false |
| user-invocable | true |
| effort | high |
| skill_id | original-frameworks/three-horizons-learning-transition-mapper |
| skill_name | Three Horizons Learning Transition Mapper |
| domain | original-frameworks |
| version | 1.0 |
| evidence_strength | emerging |
| evidence_sources | ["Curry, A., & Hodgson, A. (2008). Seeing in multiple horizons: connecting futures to strategy. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(1), 1–20.","Sharpe, B., Fazey, I., Hodgson, A., Leicester, G., & Lyon, A. (2016). Three horizons: A pathways practice for transformation. Ecology and Society, 21(2), 47.","Sharpe, B., & Hodgson, A. (2019). Anticipation in three horizons. In R. Poli (Ed.), Handbook of Anticipation. Springer.","H3Uni Three Horizons tutorials and facilitation guides (CC BY-SA 4.0, practitioner method)"] |
| input_schema | {"required":[{"field":"scoped_topic","type":"string","description":"The inquiry topic, ideally from a completed scoping statement — specific enough to generate concrete evidence for each horizon"},{"field":"value_dimension","type":"string","description":"The value or quality the group cares about — what goes on the vertical axis. Examples: ecological health, student wellbeing, learning depth, belonging, fairness, community resilience"}],"optional":[{"field":"student_level","type":"string","description":"Year group or age range"},{"field":"existing_evidence","type":"string","description":"Data, observations, or student work already available about the current situation"},{"field":"h3_seeds","type":"string","description":"Pockets of the preferred future already visible somewhere — real examples, prototypes, or inspiring cases"},{"field":"prior_hexagon_map","type":"string","description":"Key clusters or insights from a prior hexagon mapping exercise, if available"}]} |
| output_schema | {"type":"object","fields":[{"field":"h1_map","type":"object","description":"Current system under strain: evidence of dysfunction, persistence factors, what H1 still provides"},{"field":"h3_map","type":"object","description":"Preferred future pattern: values, norms, relationships; pockets already visible"},{"field":"h2_map","type":"object","description":"Transition activity sorted as H2+ (grows toward H3) and H2- (extends H1 in new language)"},{"field":"transition_story","type":"string","description":"3–5 sentence narrative of what is declining, emerging, contested, and where action might help"},{"field":"h2_plus_opportunities","type":"array","description":"Specific H2+ innovations worth supporting or learning from"},{"field":"quality_gate_results","type":"object","description":"Results of structural quality checks on the three horizons map"},{"field":"next_step_options","type":"array","description":"Suggested follow-on skills based on map insights"}]} |
| chains_well_with | ["scoping-for-transformative-learning-inquiry","hexagon-complexity-mapper","dilemma-navigation-for-education-design","systems-awareness-iceberg","agency-circles-for-systems-action","place-based-inquiry-anchor","regenerative-project-design-orchestrator"] |
| teacher_time | 20 minutes |
| tags | ["h3uni","three-horizons","futures-thinking","transition","h2-plus","h2-minus","original-framework","emerging-evidence","systems-change","programme-planning"] |
Guides students through a Three Horizons mapping exercise that helps them understand how a current system is changing, what kind of future they want to grow, and which innovations are genuinely moving toward that future. The skill produces a structured three-horizon map with: evidence that the current dominant pattern is under strain (Horizon 1); a description of the preferred future pattern with grounded examples (Horizon 3); and a sorted list of transition innovations distinguishing H2+ (grows the preferred future) from H2- (extends the old pattern in new language).
Three Horizons is not a timeline. The three horizons coexist in the present: H1 elements dominate now, H3 pockets already exist now, and H2 innovations are contested terrain now. The skill encodes a facilitation logic that makes this coexistence visible and analytically useful.
This skill encodes the H3Uni Three Horizons method, a practitioner framework for futures thinking and transformative change facilitation.
The classroom adaptation — including the facilitation sequence, student worksheet prompts, quality gates, and H2+/H2- distinction encoded in this skill — was developed for school-age students at REAL School Budapest by Gareth Manning, drawing on H3Uni's open facilitation guides and the academic papers above. This adaptation has not been independently evaluated. The core intellectual framework is H3Uni's; the classroom operationalisation is practitioner-synthesised.
H3Uni methods are published under CC BY-SA 4.0 by H3Uni, founded by Anthony Hodgson and Bill Sharpe. H3Uni's formal operations concluded May 2026; the Resource Library is maintained by Future Stewards as an open commons.
H3Uni Three Horizons was designed for adult facilitators working with policy practitioners, strategy teams, and professional groups. The classroom adaptation here does not claim peer-reviewed evidence for improved student futures thinking, better transition design outcomes, or transferable systems-change capability. Teachers should treat this as a theoretically grounded and professionally field-tested method under classroom adaptation — not as a validated educational intervention.
Use this skill after a scoping exercise and, where possible, after hexagon mapping. The map works best when students have already thought carefully about what they are investigating and have some shared understanding of the system's structure. Avoid using it as a standalone first activity — without prior scoping, students tend to fill H1 with complaints and H3 with fantasies rather than grounded structural analysis.
The teacher must provide:
Optional:
You are facilitating a Three Horizons mapping exercise. Students will map a complex topic across three coexisting patterns: the current dominant system under strain (H1), the preferred future pattern they want to grow (H3), and transition innovations (H2) sorted as H2+ (grows toward H3) or H2- (extends H1 in new language).
CRITICAL SEQUENCE: Always map in this order: H1 → H3 → H2. Never H1 → H2 → H3. Without mapping H3 first, it is impossible to distinguish H2+ from H2-. H2 innovations can only be classified once students know what future they are testing them against.
CRITICAL FRAMING: H1 is not "bad" and H3 is not "good." H1 elements persist in any real system and supply functions that must not be lost. H3 pockets already exist in the present. Frame the map as change dynamics, not moral categories.
Inputs:
Scoped topic: {{scoped_topic}}
Value dimension: {{value_dimension}}
Student level: {{student_level}}
Existing evidence: {{existing_evidence}}
H3 seeds: {{h3_seeds}}
Prior hexagon map: {{prior_hexagon_map}}
Step 1 — Map Horizon 1 (current pattern under strain):
H1 is the dominant current pattern: the dominant assumptions, practices, structures, metrics, and relationships that currently govern the topic. The vertical axis measures the value dimension. H1 is declining not because it is evil but because it is losing fit with changing conditions or values.
Ask: What evidence shows the current pattern is under strain? What keeps H1 in place even as it loses fit? Who benefits from H1 continuing? What does H1 still provide that we need?
Generate:
- Evidence of H1 strain: specific, observable examples showing the value dimension is being compromised
- H1 persistence factors: the structures, incentives, habits, or beliefs that sustain H1 even under pressure
- What H1 still provides: valuable functions any transition must preserve
Step 2 — Map Horizon 3 (preferred future pattern):
H3 is the pattern of life the group wants to grow: the values, norms, relationships, and practices that would represent genuine improvement in the value dimension. H3 is not a fantasy — it must be grounded in pockets already visible somewhere.
Ask: What would this system look like if the value dimension were genuinely flourishing? Where can we already see pockets of this future — in other schools, communities, projects, or places? What values and norms characterise H3?
Generate:
- H3 pattern description: what the preferred future looks, feels, and works like
- H3 pockets: real examples already existing somewhere that embody elements of H3
- H3 values: the shared values or principles this future is built on
Step 3 — Map Horizon 2 (transition innovations, sorted as H2+ or H2-):
H2 innovations are the experiments, projects, practices, and actors responding to pressure between H1 and H3. Some grow the preferred future (H2+). Others extend the old pattern in new language — they look like change but reinforce H1's core logic (H2-).
For each H2 item, test: Does this innovation genuinely move toward H3, or does it adapt H1 to survive? H2- items often use H3 language (sustainability, wellbeing, innovation) while leaving H1 structures intact.
For each H2 item generate:
- Description of the innovation or experiment
- Classification: H2+ or H2-
- Reasoning: why it grows H3 or why it extends H1
Step 4 — Tell the transition story:
Write a narrative (3–5 sentences) describing: what is declining in H1, what is emerging in H3, which H2 innovations are genuinely transitional, what is contested, and where the group might focus action.
Step 5 — Quality check:
Apply these gates:
- FLAG if H3 is empty or contains only vague aspirations with no grounded pockets (cannot distinguish H2+ from H2- without a concrete H3)
- FLAG if no H2 items are classified as H2+ or H2- (H2 listed without analysis)
- FLAG if H1 contains only complaints or blame without structural analysis (H1 needs evidence of strain AND persistence factors)
- REJECT if the output frames H1 as "bad" and H3 as "good" without nuance
- FLAG if H3 has no real-world pockets — aspiration only with no connection to present reality
Return exactly:
## Three Horizons Map: [Topic] — [Value Dimension]
**Scoped topic:** [topic]
**Value dimension:** [what the group cares about protecting or growing]
---
### Horizon 1 — Current Pattern Under Strain
**What H1 looks like:**
[Description of the dominant current pattern]
**Evidence of strain:**
- [Specific, observable example]
**What keeps H1 in place:**
- [Persistence factor — structure, incentive, habit, or belief]
**What H1 still provides:**
- [Function or value that any transition must preserve]
---
### Horizon 3 — Preferred Future Pattern
**What H3 looks like:**
[Description of the preferred future — grounded, not utopian]
**Pockets of H3 already visible:**
- [Real example — a school, community, project, or practice already embodying elements of H3]
**H3 values:**
- [Shared values or norms characterising this future]
---
### Horizon 2 — Transition Activity
| Innovation or Experiment | H2+ or H2-? | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| [name] | H2+ | [grows toward H3 because...] |
| [name] | H2- | [extends H1 in new language because...] |
**H2+ opportunities worth supporting:**
- [Key H2+ innovations with brief explanation]
---
### Transition Story
[3–5 sentence narrative: what is declining, what is emerging, what is contested, where action might help]
---
### Quality Gate Results
- [ ] H3 is grounded with at least one concrete pocket: [pass/flag]
- [ ] H2 items are classified as H2+ or H2-: [pass/flag]
- [ ] H1 includes structural analysis, not only complaints: [pass/flag]
- [ ] Map avoids moral framing of H1 as bad, H3 as good: [pass/flag]
- [ ] H3 is a pattern of life, not a list of innovations: [pass/flag]
### Next Step Options
[dilemma-navigation-for-education-design if the map surfaces a genuine tension between values; agency-circles-for-systems-action if students are ready to act; regenerative-project-design-orchestrator if a project design is needed]