electoral-analysis

name	electoral-analysis
description	European election forecasting, campaign analysis, seat projection, and voter behavior analysis across EU member states
license	MIT

Electoral Analysis Skill

Context

This skill applies when:

• Forecasting European Parliament election outcomes across 27 member states
• Analyzing voter turnout patterns and demographic trends in EP elections
• Projecting seat distributions using national polling data and D'Hondt/Sainte-Laguë allocation methods
• Studying party list systems and their impact on MEP selection (open vs. closed lists)
• Comparing national party performance with transnational political group outcomes
• Evaluating the Spitzenkandidaten process and its effect on voter mobilization
• Assessing the impact of European electoral reforms (transnational lists, uniform electoral procedure proposals)
• Tracking party fragmentation and new party emergence across the EU

This skill leverages EP MCP Server data for historical election results and MEP composition, aligned with Hack23 ISMS data integrity requirements.

Rules

1. Electoral System Diversity: Recognize that 27 member states use different proportional representation variants — D'Hondt (most common), Sainte-Laguë (Scandinavian states), STV (Ireland), with varying thresholds (0%–5%) and constituency structures
2. Seat Allocation Accuracy: Apply the correct apportionment formula per member state when projecting seats — never assume a single method applies across the EU
3. Turnout Contextualization: Analyze EP election turnout (historically 42%–51%) relative to national election turnout — account for compulsory voting (Belgium, Luxembourg, Greece) and second-order election effects
4. National vs. European Dynamics: Distinguish between national political factors driving EP election results and genuine European-level campaign effects — most voters are influenced by domestic considerations
5. Political Group Mapping: Map national party results to EP political group compositions — a party winning seats nationally may join different groups across terms (e.g., Fidesz EPP→NI→Patriots)
6. Degressive Proportionality: Apply the EU's degressive proportionality principle (6–96 seats per state) when analyzing seat distribution fairness and representation ratios
7. Historical Baselines: Compare projections against historical EP election results (1979–2024) using MCP Server data — identify structural trends vs. one-off shifts
8. Margin of Error: Report projection uncertainty ranges — EP seat projections typically carry ±10–15 seat margins per political group due to aggregation of 27 national polls
9. GDPR Compliance: Handle voter demographic data and individual MEP electoral performance data in compliance with GDPR per Hack23 Privacy Policy
10. Attribution: Cite European Parliament Open Data Portal, Eurostat, and national electoral commissions as authoritative data sources

Examples

Seat Projection Model

Using MCP Server historical data and current national polls:

1. Collect latest national polls for all 27 member states
2. Apply member state-specific seat allocation methods:
   - Germany (96 seats): D'Hondt, 5% threshold, closed lists
   - France (81 seats): D'Hondt, 5% threshold, closed lists
   - Ireland (14 seats): STV, multi-seat constituencies
3. Aggregate national projections into political group totals
4. Map: Use get_meps to identify current group affiliations
5. Compare: Historical composition via get_meps (term filter)
6. Report with confidence intervals per group

Expected output: EPP 175–190, S&D 135–150, Renew 75–90, etc.

Turnout Pattern Analysis

Analyze EP election turnout trends using MCP Server data:

- Cross-reference MEP counts per state with electoral turnout data
- Identify correlation between turnout and political group representation
- Compare compulsory voting states (BE, LU, EL) vs. voluntary states
- Track youth turnout impact on Greens/EFA and new party representation
- Use get_meps with country filter for state-level composition analysis

Party Fragmentation Assessment

Measure effective number of parties (ENP) across EP terms:

ENP = 1 / Σ(pi²)  where pi = seat share of party i

- Calculate ENP per member state delegation using get_meps data
- Track fragmentation trends: EP6 (2004) → EP10 (2024)
- Identify states with highest fragmentation driving group instability
- Correlate ENP with coalition formation difficulty in EP

Anti-Patterns

• Uniform Swing Assumption: Do NOT apply a single polling swing uniformly across all member states — each state has unique electoral dynamics, thresholds, and list systems
• Ignoring Electoral Thresholds: Do NOT project seats without accounting for national thresholds — parties polling at 4% in a 5%-threshold state win zero seats despite showing national support
• National Election Extrapolation: Do NOT directly use national parliament election results to predict EP elections — EP elections are second-order with different turnout profiles and voter motivations
• Static Group Affiliation: Do NOT assume national parties will remain in the same EP political group — group switching is common after elections and can shift projected group sizes by 20+ seats
• Ignoring Candidate Effects: Do NOT treat EP elections as purely party-based in open-list or STV systems — individual candidate preference votes significantly affect who gets elected in Ireland, Italy, and Nordic states
• Aggregate Without Decomposing: Do NOT present EU-wide projections without showing the national-level building blocks — aggregation hides critical uncertainties in individual state projections