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LLMs Can See the Smoke but not the Fire: Evaluating Abductive Reasoning with Elenchos - Large language models (LLMs) excel at pattern recognition and text generation, but their capacity for abductive inference - inferring latent hypothese...
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| name | llms-can-see-the-smoke-but-not-the-fire-evaluating |
| description | LLMs Can See the Smoke but not the Fire: Evaluating Abductive Reasoning with Elenchos - Large language models (LLMs) excel at pattern recognition and text generation, but their capacity for abductive inference - inferring latent hypothese... |
| version | 1.0.0 |
| author | Julius Steiglechner, Lucas Mahler, Gabriele Lohmann |
| arxiv_id | 2607.12733 |
| created | 2026-07-14T00:00:00.000Z |
| category | neuroscience |
| tags | ["cs.AI","cs.LG"] |
| activation_keywords | ["llms","smoke","fire","evaluating","abductive","reasoning","elenchos","large","language","models"] |
Large language models (LLMs) excel at pattern recognition and text generation, but their capacity for abductive inference - inferring latent hypotheses that explain observed behavior - remains poorly understood. Here, we introduce Elenchos (named after the Socratic method of cross-examination), a generative evaluation framework that measures abductive reasoning as a structural inverse problem. Given a reference formal system, such as the lambda-calculus, and a potentially mutated counterpart, agents must determine whether a mutation has occurred and infer the rule modifications responsible for the resulting behavioral differences. Evaluating frontier and mid-tier LLMs reveals a consistent detection-attribution dissociation: models often recognize that a system has been altered but struggle to identify the latent mutations causing the observed discrepancies. Performance degrades substantially under interacting mutations, where models frequently recover only a subset of the underlying mutations. Preliminary evidence also suggests diminishing returns from increased inference-time reasoning, with only modest improvements under larger reasoning budgets, though this finding requires further validation.
llms, smoke, fire, evaluating, abductive, reasoning, elenchos, large, language, models
