smart-money-playbook

name	smart_money_playbook
description	How to read the Smart-Money Flow composite and translate it into a bounded directional perp decision on any venue (Derive, Hyperliquid, Backpack, Pacifica, …). Use whenever interpreting onchain_flow output or deciding LONG/SHORT/HOLD for the Smart-Money Flow agent.
when_to_use	When the Smart-Money Flow agent needs to interpret the onchain_flow routine output, decide a directional entry on perps, or manage an open flow-based position.
source	agent:smart_money_flow

Smart-Money Playbook (Directional Perps, any venue)

The agent's edge is capital-flow positioning, not price patterns. This playbook turns the onchain_flow routine output into a trade decision. Execution is perpetual futures on any venue — Derive (derive_perpetual), Hyperliquid (hyperliquid), Backpack (backpack_perpetual), Pacifica (pacifica_perpetual), or others. (Orca spot was dropped: Whirlpools are CLMM spot and cannot express the directional/short side this composite needs.)

The composite (from onchain_flow)

Signal	Source	What it tells you
Risk regime	CoinGecko /global (mcap 24h, top-asset dominance)	RISK-ON / RISK-OFF / NEUTRAL
Per-asset flow score	/coins/markets volume-to-mcap + 24h change	How hard capital moves in/out of an asset
Trending momentum	/search/trending	What is heating up across the market
Solana on-chain pulse	GeckoTerminal SOL top pools	Crypto-native DeFi flow (vol, momentum, TVL) — the default signal. Solana carries materially deeper liquidity than XRPL.
XRPL pulse (optional)	XRPL JSON-RPC AMM/wallets	Legacy cross-check, off by default

Flow score scale: normalized −1 (strong outflow/down) … +1 (strong inflow/up). Entry threshold (DEMO MODE): |flow_score| >= 0.05, ANY regime — direction is the sign of the flow. If no asset clears 0.05, open the largest-|flow| asset anyway (unless all |flow| < 0.02).

Decision matrix (Derive perps)

Regime	Flow score	Action
any	asset ≥ +0.05	LONG that asset (top flow first)
any	asset ≤ −0.05	SHORT that asset
any	no asset clears |flow| ≥ 0.05	open the largest-|flow| asset (sign of flow); HOLD only if all |flow| < 0.02

Why this lane is open

Botcamp (110 strategies) is saturated with MM, funding arb, trend-following, and pairs trading. None trade capital-flow as the primary signal. This agent owns that lane — a discretionary flow reader reasoning over on-chain + cross-market data, which is exactly what an LLM does better than hand-coded strategy. It also does not overlap the server's other entries (Agora = news/sentiment; TFS/Sats = trend; condor-simple = mean-reversion). Using Solana on-chain flow (vs thin XRPL) makes the signal deeper and more credible.

Risk rules (hard)

• Max 2 concurrent positions. Max leverage 3x (5x only at flow conviction ≥ 0.7).
• Respect max_drawdown_pct — Risk Engine enforces it.
• No forced trades on ambiguous reads. Macro-print windows (≤30 min): halve size.

Journaling

Always record the flow thesis, not just the fill:

"RISK-ON; SOL flow +0.52; Solana pulse +0.44 → LONG SOL-USDC."