research-market-opportunity

name	research-market-opportunity
description	Parse a product idea, query web and LTM for market context, produce a quantified market brief with TAM/SAM/SOM, competitive landscape, market gaps, and risks. Fresh skill built in 214.5; not the deleted discover-product-opportunity.
user-invocable	false
model	sonnet
allowed-tools	Read, Write, Glob, Grep, WebSearch, WebFetch
deprecated	true
deprecated_note	#434 ProductOS realignment — superseded by the command model; retained for Phase E reference, not installed

research-market-opportunity

Model-invocable skill for producing a market brief from a free-text product idea. Called by the market-analyst agent during specify Stage 1.

Purpose

Answer four questions, each with quantified data and cited sources:

1. Who is the market? (industry, segment, geographic scope)
2. How big is it? (TAM / SAM / SOM with growth rate)
3. Who competes today? (named competitors with positioning and scale)
4. What are the gaps? (market needs unaddressed by existing solutions)

Produce a market-brief.md at the target path. Every claim cites a source. Unsourced claims are marked "insufficient data" — no fabrication.

Input

Receive from the market-analyst agent:

• product_idea (string, required) — free-text description, minimum 5 meaningful words
• industry_hint (string, optional) — e.g., "healthcare", "BFSI", "SaaS"
• project_profile_path (path, optional) — to read geographic scope, audience, timeline
• ltm_domain_taxonomy_path (path, required) — typically core/components/memory/knowledge/domain/
• output_path (string, required) — target file path under .garura/product/specification/market-brief.md

Process

1. Parse the product idea. Extract product type, user type, core problem. If parsing fails (idea is too vague), return structured failure with what_failed: parse.

2. Load LTM context. Read the domain-taxonomy markdown files whose Search patterns line matches the parsed product. Pull When It Matters, Signals, and Tradeoffs prose for 2-4 most-relevant features. This grounds the brief in existing catalog knowledge.

3. Query web for market size. Use WebSearch with queries: "{industry} TAM {current year}", "{product category} market size", "{product category} CAGR". Capture URLs and numeric claims. If at least two independent sources agree within 2x, use their range. If none or only one, mark as "single source — verify".

4. Query web for competitive landscape. Use WebSearch with "{product category} competitors", "alternatives to {nearest known competitor}", "{industry} {product type} vendors". For each competitor surfaced, attempt to find: positioning statement, revenue estimate (if public), customer count (if public), key differentiation. Record each with a source URL.

5. Identify market gaps. Compare competitor feature descriptions against the product idea. Note unmet needs, pricing gaps, integration gaps, UX gaps. Each gap must be traceable to either a competitor's published limitations or a domain-taxonomy Tradeoffs note.

6. Enumerate risks. From the LTM domain-taxonomy Signals sections and project profile, identify:

   • Regulatory risks (specific regulation names — GDPR, HIPAA, PCI-DSS, etc.)
   • Market timing risks (adjacent technology shifts, macro trends)
   • Technology risks (dependencies, platform lock-in, vendor risk)

7. Compose the brief. Write to {output_path} using this structure:

   # Market Brief — {product slug or name}
   
   ## Snapshot
   - Product idea: <one-sentence restatement>
   - Industry: 
    Geographic scope: 
    Brief generated: 
   
   
    TAM:  (source: )
    SAM:  (source: )
    SOM:   (source: )  # realistic for the first appetite
    Growth rate: % over  (source: )
   
   
   | Competitor | Positioning | Revenue (est) | Customers (est) | Differentiation |
   | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
   
   
    
    
   
   
    Regulatory: 
    Market timing: 
    Technology: 
   
   
    
    
   

Output

market_brief:
  path: <written path>
  source_count: <int>
  tam_sources: <int>      # number of independent sources for TAM
  sam_sources: <int>
  som_sources: <int>
  competitor_count: <int>
  gaps_identified: <int>
  risks_identified: <int>
  insufficient_data_markers: <int>  # fields marked "insufficient data"

Constraints

• NEVER fabricate TAM/SAM/SOM numbers. If web search yields zero credible sources for a field, write insufficient data — requires primary research and increment the insufficient_data_markers counter.
• NEVER invent competitor names. Every row in the competitive landscape table must trace to at least one source URL.
• NEVER invent LTM feature references. If the domain-taxonomy query returns zero matches, skip the LTM-grounding section rather than hallucinating.
• NEVER write outside {output_path}. The whitelist enforcement happens at write time.
• ALWAYS cite sources. Every quantified claim carries a URL or an explicit "insufficient data" marker.
• ALWAYS structure the brief per the template. Downstream stages parse this file; free-form prose breaks them.
• ALWAYS pass results back via the output contract. Do not print the brief to the caller's response.

Version

Field	Value
Version	0.1.0
Category	product-planning
Created	2026-04-14
Related	core/components/agents/market-analyst.md, core/components/plays/specify/