decision-frameworks

name	decision-frameworks
type	domain
family	executive
rigor	standard
description	Use when choosing between mutually exclusive strategic paths or building a repeatable decision process—constructs Decision Matrices with probability estimates and runs Pre-Mortems.
keywords	decision-making, uncertainty, mental-models, frameworks, analysis, probabilistic
compatibility	Claude Code and compatible agent products
requires	[]
enhances	["strategy-clarity","devils-advocate","assumption-audit"]
sources_pdf	["Thinking in Bets (Duke)","How to Decide (Duke)","The Great Mental Models v1 (Parrish)","The Great Mental Models v2 (Parrish)","Poor Charlie's Almanack (Munger)","Useful Not True (Sivers)"]
sources_web	["Farnam Street: Decision-making series","Farnam Street: Mental Models"]

Overview

Decision frameworks provide the structural rigor to make high-quality choices under uncertainty. This skill transforms decision-making from an emotional "gut feel" into a probabilistic process by decoupling outcomes from process, identifying cognitive biases, and utilizing a latticework of mental models to uncover second-order consequences.

Guiding Principles

Principle 1: Decisions are Bets (Source: Duke, Thinking in Bets)

Every decision is a bet on a specific future. Shift from binary "Right/Wrong" thinking to probabilistic "Confidence" thinking. Acknowledging uncertainty (e.g., "I am 70% confident") improves decision quality and reduces the sting of bad outcomes.

Principle 2: Anti-Resulting (Source: Duke, Thinking in Bets)

Do not judge a decision solely by its outcome. A "good" result can come from a "bad" process due to luck. Evaluate the process used at the time of the decision, not the final result.

Principle 3: Latticework of Models (Source: Munger, Poor Charlie's Almanack)

You cannot make wise decisions with a single mental model. You must have a "latticework" of models from multiple disciplines (math, physics, biology, psychology) to avoid the "Man with a Hammer" syndrome.

Principle 4: Circle of Competence (Source: Parrish, Great Mental Models v1)

Know the boundaries of your knowledge. Decisions made outside your circle of competence have a much higher risk of failure. If you must decide outside your circle, seek a partner with the missing expertise.

Principle 5: Pragmatic Truth (Source: Sivers, Useful Not True)

When faced with multiple interpretations of a situation, choose the one that is most useful for making progress, even if it is not "100% true." Belief is a tool for action.

When to Use This Skill

• When a decision involves significant "downside" risk or high uncertainty.
• When choosing between mutually exclusive strategic paths.
• When building a "Decision Journal" for organizational learning.
• When an individual or team is stuck in "Analysis Paralysis."

When NOT to Use This Skill

• For low-stakes, reversible decisions (e.g., "Type 2" decisions). (Source: Bezos, Amazon Letter)
• When speed is the primary requirement and the cost of being wrong is negligible.

Core Process

Step 1: Frame the Decision

Clearly state the choice being made and the desired outcome.

1. The Happiness Test: Will this decision matter in 10 minutes? 10 months? 10 years? Use the result to determine how much time to spend on the decision. (Source: Duke, )