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LLM token logprobs and calibration. Per-decision confidence, ECE, Brier, reliability diagrams, low-confidence triage.
Analyze LLM token logprobs and calibration. Use for per-decision confidence, ECE, Brier scores, reliability diagrams, and low-confidence triage.
回顾最近 N 天的 Claude Code 使用记录——扫描原始会话数据,按主题分组汇总"我都做了什么",并从个人操作系统视角输出模式、风险与增删建议。当用户说 /recap、"看看我这几天做了什么"、"回顾一下我最近的会话"、"这两天我用 claude 干了啥"、"活动回顾" 时使用。
基于 SOC 职业分类
正在显示 SKILL.md
| name | amazon-bestseller-launch |
| description | Complete Amazon KDP bestseller launch system with proven strategies for achieving |
Execute the proven 5-phase framework for achieving Amazon #1 Bestseller status.
Amazon's A10 algorithm ranks books based on:
| Metric | Weight | Target for #1 |
|---|---|---|
| Sales Velocity | 40% | 50-200+ sales in 24-48 hours |
| Conversion Rate | 25% | >15% page visitors → buyers |
| Reviews | 20% | 25+ reviews in first 30 days |
| Read-Through | 10% | >70% Kindle Unlimited pages read |
| Keywords/Categories | 5% | Rank top 3 in 3+ categories |
Select 3 categories using the "Low Competition, High Demand" formula:
CATEGORY_SCORE = (Monthly_Sales / #Books_in_Category) × Avg_Review_Count
Target: CATEGORY_SCORE > 500
Winning Category Criteria:
Amazon allows 7 backend keywords (50 chars each). Optimize using:
PRIMARY: [main topic] + [audience] + [benefit]
SECONDARY: [problem] + [solution] + [format]
LONG-TAIL: [specific niche] + [unique angle]
Keyword Research Tools:
□ Title: Primary keyword + benefit (≤200 chars)
□ Subtitle: Secondary keywords + specific outcome
□ Description: 4,000 chars, HTML formatting, 3 CTAs
□ Author Bio: Credibility + related books + social proof
□ A+ Content: 5 modules minimum (if Brand Registered)
□ Editorial Reviews: 3-5 pre-launch endorsements
Target: 50 ARC readers → 25+ reviews by launch day
ARC Recruitment Sources:
Email 1 (T-60): Announce book, recruit reviewers
Email 2 (T-45): Send ARC via BookFunnel
Email 3 (T-30): Check-in, ask for feedback
Email 4 (T-14): Reminder to prepare review
Email 5 (T-1): "Review goes live tomorrow!"
Email 6 (Launch): Direct link to leave review
| Day | Cumulative Reviews | BSR Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5-10 | Enter top 10,000 |
| 7 | 15-20 | Enter top 1,000 |
| 14 | 20-25 | Stabilize ranking |
| 30 | 25-50 | Long-term visibility |
| Phase | eBook Price | Goal |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-order | $0.99 | Maximize pre-orders |
| Launch (Day 1-3) | $0.99 | Sales velocity |
| Post-launch (Day 4-7) | $2.99 | Revenue + ranking |
| Steady state | $4.99-9.99 | Profit margin |
Pre-orders count as Day 1 sales. Strategy:
Minimum viable launch team:
- 50 email subscribers committed to buy Day 1
- 25 ARC reviewers ready to post reviews
- 10 social media amplifiers (shares/posts)
- 5 podcast/blog appearances scheduled
6:00 AM EST - Verify listing is live, price correct
7:00 AM - Email blast #1 to full list
8:00 AM - Social media announcement (all platforms)
10:00 AM - Notify ARC team: "POST REVIEWS NOW"
12:00 PM - Email blast #2 (non-openers)
2:00 PM - Check BSR, adjust if needed
4:00 PM - Social media push #2
6:00 PM - Email blast #3 (last chance $0.99)
9:00 PM - Track final Day 1 metrics
| Category Competitiveness | Day 1 Sales Needed |
|---|---|
| Low (<1,000 books) | 25-50 |
| Medium (1,000-10,000) | 50-100 |
| High (10,000+) | 100-200+ |
Track every 2 hours on launch day:
# Key metrics to monitor
metrics = {
"bsr": "Best Seller Rank (lower = better)",
"category_rank": "Position in chosen categories",
"review_count": "Total reviews posted",
"review_avg": "Average star rating",
"also_bought": "Appearing in 'also bought' carousels"
}
□ Day 2-3: Continue $0.99 pricing
□ Day 3: Raise to $2.99 if BSR stable
□ Day 4-7: Amazon Ads campaign (ACoS target <50%)
□ Daily: Monitor reviews, respond to questions
Sponsored Products Campaign Setup:
Campaign Type: Manual targeting
Daily Budget: $20-50
Bid Strategy: Dynamic bids (down only)
Keywords: 50-100 from research
Match Types: Exact (60%), Phrase (30%), Broad (10%)
Target ACoS by Phase:
| Phase | Target ACoS | Goal |
|---|---|---|
| Launch (Week 1) | 100%+ OK | Visibility |
| Growth (Week 2-4) | 50-70% | Ranking |
| Profit (Month 2+) | 30-50% | Sustainable |
Enroll in KDP Select for 90-day exclusivity benefits:
Countdown Deal Timing:
PRE-LAUNCH (T-90 to T-0)
□ Category research: 3 low-competition categories selected
□ Keywords: 7 backend keywords optimized
□ Listing: Title, description, A+ content complete
□ ARC campaign: 50 readers recruited, ARCs distributed
□ Launch team: 50+ committed Day 1 buyers
□ Pre-orders: Open and promoted
□ Price: Set to $0.99 for launch
LAUNCH DAY (T-0)
□ Email sequence: 3 blasts scheduled
□ Social media: Posts scheduled all platforms
□ ARC team: Notified to post reviews
□ Monitoring: BSR tracked every 2 hours
POST-LAUNCH (T+1 to T+30)
□ Price increase: $0.99 → $2.99 → $4.99
□ Amazon Ads: Campaigns live
□ Reviews: 25+ posted
□ Countdown deal: Scheduled for T+21
references/category-research.mdreferences/email-templates.mdreferences/amazon-ads.mdscripts/launch-tracker.py