reforecast

name	Reforecast
slug	reforecast
version	0.1.0
status	draft
category	residential_multifamily
subsystem	residential_multifamily
pack_type	workflow
targets	["claude_code"]
stale_data	Same assumptions as budget_build. Reforecast inherits live actuals through the asof month and preserves forward-looking assumptions unless overlay cites a change basis. Forecast accuracy is a trailing-6-month metric; drift informs assumption recalibration.
applies_to	{"segment":["middle_market"],"form_factor":["garden","walk_up","wrap","suburban_mid_rise","urban_mid_rise"],"lifecycle":["stabilized","renovation","lease_up","recap_support"],"management_mode":["self_managed","third_party_managed","owner_oversight"],"role":["property_manager","regional_manager","asset_manager","reporting_finance_ops_lead"],"output_types":["operating_review","memo","kpi_review"],"decision_severity_max":"action_requires_approval"}
references	{"reads":["reference/normalized/payroll_assumptions__{org}.csv","reference/normalized/insurance_tax_assumptions__{market}.csv","reference/normalized/utility_benchmarks__{market}.csv","reference/normalized/market_rents__{market}_mf.csv","reference/normalized/concession_benchmarks__{market}_mf.csv","reference/normalized/collections_benchmarks__{region}_mf.csv","reference/normalized/unit_turn_cost_library__{market}.csv","reference/derived/budget_escalator_assumptions__{market}.csv","reference/normalized/approval_threshold_defaults.csv"],"writes":[]}
metrics_used	["noi","noi_margin","forecast_accuracy","revenue_variance_to_budget","expense_variance_to_budget","economic_occupancy","collections_rate","bad_debt_rate","concession_rate","dscr","debt_yield","budget_attainment"]
escalation_paths	[{"kind":"forecast_final_submission","to":"asset_manager -> finance/reporting lead -> approval_request(row 14 for lender)"},{"kind":"owner_submission","to":"asset_manager -> executive -> approval_request(row 15 or 16)"}]
approvals_required	["final_forecast_submission"]
description	Produces a reforecast that inherits actuals through the as-of month, preserves or revises forward-looking assumptions with citation, and surfaces the delta vs. budget and vs. prior forecast. Includes forecast-accuracy calibration and NOI sensitivity.

Reforecast

Workflow purpose

Take the latest actuals, combine with forward assumptions, and produce a reforecast that shows how year-end is likely to land vs. budget and prior forecast. Preserve assumption trail. Cite every revision.

Trigger conditions

• Explicit: "reforecast Q2", "update forecast", "year-end landing", "roll forecast through December".
• Implicit: as-of month closes; material variance vs. prior forecast; market-side event (rent comp update, insurance renewal, tax reassessment).
• Recurring: per org overlay calendar (often monthly or quarterly).

Inputs (required / optional)

Input	Type	Required	Notes
Actuals through asof	table	required	GL closed through month
Prior forecast	table	required	for delta tracking
Budget	table	required	anchor
Rent roll snapshot	table	required	for forward revenue
Assumption references	csv / yaml	required	all budget_build refs
Change basis notes	memo	optional	any revision > overlay materiality

Outputs

Output	Type	Shape
Reforecast by line item	table	monthly through year end
NOI + margin + covenant view	kpi_review	budget vs. prior forecast vs. new forecast
Delta commentary	memo	revisions and basis
Forecast accuracy view	kpi_review	forecast_accuracy trailing 6
Owner submission draft	operating_review	if applicable

Required context

Asset_class, segment, form_factor, lifecycle_stage, management_mode, market.

Process