bet

name	bet
description	Use when generating fresh recommendations or viewing the current ones. Runs the decide layer (Kelly + portfolio + calibration) and shows the latest recommendations.
argument-hint	[--league LEAGUE] [show]

/bet — Generate or view betting recommendations

Two modes: show the current recommendations, or run the decide layer to generate fresh ones. Bet placement lives in /place-bets; this skill stops short of opening a browser.

Mode 1: Show recommendations (default, or show)

Display the latest recommendations from data/decisions/recommendations/. The Parquet store is partitioned by sport, country, and run_date — the most recent run_date per league is what the placer would consume.

cd /Users/brynjolfurjonsson/sports && Rscript -e '
suppressPackageStartupMessages(devtools::load_all())
sports::rebuild_duckdb()
con <- DBI::dbConnect(duckdb::duckdb(), "sports.duckdb", read_only = TRUE)
print(DBI::dbGetQuery(con, "
  SELECT sport, country, sex, match_date, home_team, away_team,
         market, outcome, line, p, odds, ev, kelly, bet_amount
  FROM recommendations
  WHERE run_date = (SELECT MAX(run_date) FROM recommendations)
  ORDER BY ev DESC
"))
'

Equivalently, the placer's preview script shows the same set, deduped against the ledger (i.e. what would actually be placed):

Rscript scripts/preview_bets.R

Present the table to the user. Then suggest:

• "Want me to refresh recommendations? (/bet --all or /sports-update)"
• "Want me to actually place these? (/place-bets)"

If recommendations/ is empty or stale, run the decide layer first (Mode 2 below).

Mode 2: Run the decide layer

Generate fresh recommendations. The decide layer reads the latest beliefs/latest/ snapshot for each (sport, country, sex), prepares odds, runs joint Kelly + portfolio optimisation + calibration, and writes candidates + recommendations Parquet.

Decide is fast (~seconds) and inline-safe — no detached launch needed.

Rscript scripts/04_decide.R

Or for a single league / sex:

Rscript scripts/04_decide.R --league football_iceland
Rscript scripts/04_decide.R --league football_iceland --sex male

After completion, drop into Mode 1 to display the new recommendations.

When to use which entrypoint

User intent	Entrypoint
"Recompute recommendations against fresh odds"	scripts/04_decide.R (assumes fits exist)
"Recompute everything end-to-end"	/sports-update
"Just refresh the model fits"	/sports-update fit
"Place bets I see in the table"	/place-bets

If the latest fit is older than betting.max_age_hours (config/leagues.yml), decide will warn — refit first via /sports-update fit.

Error handling

• "No recommendations rows for run_date X" → the decide layer hasn't run for any league yet, or all runs are filtered out by EV threshold. Run Mode 2.
• "No posterior found" → fit is missing for that league × sex. Run /sports-update fit --league {key}.
• "Stale posterior warning" → fit is older than max_age_hours. Refit first.
• "No odds rows for date range" → the odds scrape hasn't run recently. Run Rscript scripts/02_scrape_odds.R.

Reference

• Decide entrypoint: scripts/04_decide.R → R/decide-pipeline.R::decide_league()
• Sub-stages: R/decide-{odds,kelly,portfolio,calibration}.R
• Recommendations Parquet: data/decisions/recommendations/sport=*/country=*/run_date=*/
• Candidates Parquet (with stage column for debugging): data/decisions/candidates/
• Per-league betting config: config/leagues.yml::{league}.betting
• Global Kelly cap + budget: config/bankroll.yml
• Placement (separate skill): /place-bets