dcf-modeler

name	dcf-modeler
description	Builds DCF models with terminal value, WACC calculation, sensitivity tables
allowed-tools	["Read","Write","Glob","Grep","Bash","WebFetch"]
metadata	{"specialization":"venture-capital","domain":"business","skill-id":"vc-skill-023"}

DCF Modeler

Overview

The DCF Modeler skill builds Discounted Cash Flow valuation models for venture capital analysis. While DCF is less common for early-stage VC, it supports late-stage growth investments, exit analysis, and LP return modeling where cash flow projections are meaningful.

Capabilities

Cash Flow Projection

• Project operating cash flows
• Model capital expenditure requirements
• Estimate working capital changes
• Handle loss-making growth phase transitions

Discount Rate Calculation

• Calculate WACC for appropriate structures
• Apply venture-appropriate discount rates
• Adjust for stage and risk profile
• Model cost of equity with VC premiums

Terminal Value Estimation

• Calculate terminal value via exit multiple
• Apply perpetuity growth method
• Hybrid terminal value approaches
• Terminal value sanity checks

Sensitivity Analysis

• Build sensitivity tables
• Model key assumption impacts
• Calculate value driver sensitivities
• Create scenario matrices

Usage

Build DCF Model

Input: Financial projections, assumptions
Process: Build cash flow model, calculate value
Output: DCF valuation, model outputs

Calculate Discount Rate

Input: Company profile, capital structure
Process: Calculate appropriate discount rate
Output: WACC/discount rate, methodology notes

Estimate Terminal Value

Input: Terminal year financials, exit assumptions
Process: Calculate terminal value
Output: Terminal value, percentage of total value

Run Sensitivity Analysis

Input: Base case model, sensitivity parameters
Process: Calculate sensitivities across ranges
Output: Sensitivity tables, tornado charts

DCF Components

Component	VC Considerations
Projection Period	5-10 years to steady state
Discount Rate	20-40%+ for early stage
Terminal Value	Often 60-80%+ of total value
Cash Flows	May be negative for years
Exit Multiple	Primary terminal method

Integration Points

• DCF Analysis Process: Core modeling skill
• Financial Model Validator: Validate model inputs
• Multiple Calculator: Terminal value multiples
• Sensitivity Analyst (Agent): Support analysis

Discount Rate Considerations

Stage	Typical Discount Rate
Seed	40-60%
Series A	35-50%
Series B	30-40%
Growth	20-30%
Late Stage	15-25%

Best Practices

1. DCF is supplementary for early-stage VC
2. Use realistic projections, not hockey sticks
3. Heavily weight terminal value sensitivities
4. Consider probability-weighted scenarios
5. Triangulate with VC method and comparables