market-sizer

name	market-sizer
description	TAM/SAM/SOM calculation with data source integration (CB Insights, PitchBook, etc.)
allowed-tools	["Read","Write","Glob","Grep","Bash","WebFetch"]
metadata	{"specialization":"venture-capital","domain":"business","skill-id":"vc-skill-007"}

Market Sizer

Overview

The Market Sizer skill provides systematic Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) calculations. It integrates with industry data sources to build defensible market sizing analyses for investment evaluation.

Capabilities

TAM/SAM/SOM Calculation

• Top-down market sizing from industry reports
• Bottom-up market sizing from unit economics
• Value theory sizing from willingness to pay analysis
• Triangulation across multiple methodologies

Data Source Integration

• CB Insights market data and industry reports
• PitchBook market maps and sizing
• Gartner, Forrester, and industry analyst reports
• Government statistics and census data
• Public company filings and disclosures

Market Segmentation

• Geographic market segmentation
• Customer segment sizing
• Use case and application segmentation
• Adjacent market opportunity mapping

Growth Analysis

• Historical market growth rates
• Growth driver identification and analysis
• Market maturity assessment
• Disruption and substitution risk evaluation

Usage

Calculate Market Size

Input: Market definition, methodology preference, data sources
Process: Gather data, apply sizing methodology, triangulate
Output: TAM/SAM/SOM estimates with methodology documentation

Validate Company Claims

Input: Company's market size claims, their methodology
Process: Independent sizing, compare against company claims
Output: Validation assessment, discrepancy analysis

Map Adjacent Markets

Input: Core market definition, expansion vectors
Process: Size adjacent opportunities, assess accessibility
Output: Expansion opportunity matrix with sizes

Forecast Market Growth

Input: Current market size, growth drivers, timeline
Process: Model growth scenarios with assumptions
Output: Market forecasts with confidence intervals

Sizing Methodologies

Methodology	Best For	Approach
Top-Down	Established markets	Industry reports, public data
Bottom-Up	New markets	Unit counts x pricing
Value Theory	Disruption plays	Value created x capture rate
Comparable	Adjacent markets	Analogy to similar markets

Integration Points

• Commercial Due Diligence: Feed market size into DD analysis
• Deal Scoring Engine: Incorporate market scores
• VC Method Valuation: Support exit multiple assumptions
• IC Memo Generator: Include market analysis in memos

Best Practices

1. Always triangulate with multiple methodologies
2. Clearly document assumptions and data sources
3. Define market boundaries precisely
4. Distinguish between current and future market size
5. Account for market creation vs. capture scenarios