deal-risk-assessment

name	deal-risk-assessment
description	Assess deal health and risk factors for Talosix EDC opportunities, score deals across multiple dimensions, identify red flags, and recommend actions to improve pipeline forecast accuracy.

Deal Risk Assessment

Purpose

Systematically evaluate the health of active deals in the Talosix sales pipeline. Identify risks early, recommend corrective actions, and improve forecast accuracy by replacing gut-feel assessments with structured analysis grounded in clinical trial EDC sales patterns.

When to Use

• Weekly pipeline review and deal inspection
• Before updating forecast commitments
• When a deal shows signs of stalling or going silent
• Before requesting executive involvement or resources
• Quarterly pipeline health assessments

Information Gathering

For each deal being assessed, collect:

1. Opportunity Details - Deal name, prospect company, deal value, stage, close date
2. Timeline - Days in current stage, total days in pipeline, original vs. current close date
3. Stakeholders - Identified contacts, their roles, engagement level
4. Activities - Recent meetings, emails, demos, evaluations
5. Competitive Landscape - Known competitors, prospect's incumbent vendor
6. Next Steps - Agreed-upon next action and date
7. Champion Status - Who is the internal champion, how active are they
8. Technical Evaluation - Status of any POC, pilot, or technical review
9. Procurement - Status of legal/procurement engagement, MSA review

Scoring Framework

Score each deal across these dimensions on a 1-5 scale (1 = high risk, 5 = low risk):

1. Champion Strength (Weight: 25%)

Score	Criteria
5	Active champion with decision authority, personally invested in Talosix winning
4	Strong advocate with influence, regularly provides internal intel
3	Supportive contact but limited influence or unclear decision authority
2	Contact is engaged but not actively championing internally
1	No identified champion, or champion has left/changed roles

2. Decision Process Clarity (Weight: 20%)

Score	Criteria
5	Full buying process mapped: decision makers, criteria, timeline, budget confirmed
4	Most elements known, one or two gaps
3	General understanding but key elements (budget, final approver) unclear
2	Vague process, prospect has not shared specifics
1	No visibility into decision process, single-threaded relationship

3. Compelling Event (Weight: 20%)

Score	Criteria
5	Hard deadline (study start date, contract expiry, regulatory requirement) driving urgency
4	Strong business driver with general timeline pressure
3	Acknowledged need but no specific deadline or consequence of delay
2	"Nice to have" evaluation, no urgency
1	No identified reason to change or act now

4. Technical Fit (Weight: 15%)

Score	Criteria
5	Requirements fully met, successful POC/pilot, technical team supportive
4	Strong fit with minor gaps easily addressed (configuration, roadmap items)
3	Good fit with some gaps requiring workarounds or custom development
2	Significant gaps, prospect has concerns about technical capability
1	Major requirement gaps, technical team has raised blockers

5. Competitive Position (Weight: 10%)

Score	Criteria
5	Sole source or strongly preferred, competitor eliminated
4	Leading position, clear advantages acknowledged by prospect
3	Competitive, no clear leader, evaluation ongoing
2	Behind a competitor, prospect leaning elsewhere
1	Incumbent advantage is strong, Talosix is the underdog with no clear differentiator

6. Engagement Recency (Weight: 10%)

Score	Criteria
5	Active engagement in last 7 days, next meeting scheduled
4	Contact within last 14 days, positive communication
3	Last meaningful contact 15-30 days ago
2	30-60 days since meaningful engagement despite outreach
1	60+ days of silence, emails/calls unanswered

Overall Score Calculation

Deal Health Score = (Champion x 0.25) + (Decision Process x 0.20) +
                   (Compelling Event x 0.20) + (Technical Fit x 0.15) +
                   (Competitive Position x 0.10) + (Engagement x 0.10)

Score Interpretation

Score Range	Rating	Forecast Category
4.5 - 5.0	Strong	Commit
3.5 - 4.4	Healthy	Best Case
2.5 - 3.4	At Risk	Pipeline
1.5 - 2.4	Troubled	Upside Only
1.0 - 1.4	Critical	Omit from Forecast

Red Flags

Automatically flag deals exhibiting any of these patterns:

Immediate Action Required

• Ghost Champion - Champion has not responded in 14+ days
• Close Date Slippage - Close date pushed more than twice
• Single-Threaded - Only one contact engaged, no multi-stakeholder access
• No Next Step - No agreed-upon next action with a date
• Procurement Stall - Legal/procurement engaged but no progress in 21+ days

Warning Signs

• Expanding Evaluation - Prospect adds new competitors late in the process
• Stakeholder Turnover - Key contact leaves or changes roles during evaluation
• Scope Creep - Requirements expanding without corresponding budget discussion
• Delayed POC - Technical evaluation keeps getting postponed
• Budget Uncertainty - No budget confirmed or "still working on budget" after discovery
• Committee Decision - Decision shifted from individual to committee
• Unusual Silence After Demo - No follow-up questions after a demo (often means they're not serious or chose a competitor)

Clinical Trial EDC-Specific Red Flags

• Study Already Started - Prospect's study has already begun enrollment with another EDC (switching mid-study is rare)
• CRO Mandate - Prospect's CRO has a preferred/mandated EDC vendor
• Enterprise Agreement - Prospect has an enterprise license with incumbent that covers EDC
• Regulatory Filing Dependency - Prospect is mid-submission and reluctant to change systems
• Validation Concerns - IT/QA team has raised CSV burden as a significant concern

Recommended Actions by Risk Level

Strong (4.5-5.0)

• Maintain momentum, don't over-manage
• Prepare for contracting and implementation planning
• Ask champion to confirm timeline with procurement
• Schedule executive alignment meeting

Healthy (3.5-4.4)

• Address the lowest-scoring dimension specifically
• Expand stakeholder engagement to reduce single-thread risk
• Confirm compelling event and quantify cost of inaction
• Request access to procurement/legal to start MSA review

At Risk (2.5-3.4)

• Conduct an honest assessment of whether this deal is real
• Develop a champion or find a new one
• Create urgency through a time-bound offer or reference visit
• Involve sales leadership for strategy session
• Consider requesting an executive-to-executive meeting

Troubled (1.5-2.4)

• Escalate to sales leadership for go/no-go decision
• Reduce time investment unless a clear path to recovery exists
• Attempt a "pattern interrupt" (new stakeholder, new angle, executive outreach)
• Move to nurture if no improvement within 2 weeks

Critical (1.0-1.4)

• Remove from active forecast immediately
• Move to long-term nurture or close-lost
• Document lessons learned for similar future opportunities
• Redirect resources to healthier deals

Pipeline Forecast Methodology

Weighted Pipeline Calculation

Weighted Value = Deal Value x Stage Probability x (Health Score / 5)

Stage probabilities for clinical trial EDC sales:

Stage	Base Probability
Qualification	10%
Discovery Complete	20%
Demo/Evaluation	35%
POC/Pilot	50%
Proposal Delivered	60%
Negotiation	75%
Verbal Commit	90%
Closed Won	100%

Adjust base probability up or down by the health score ratio to get a more realistic weighted pipeline.

Output Format

Deliver deal risk assessments as:

1. Individual Deal Scorecard - One-page scoring with dimension breakdown, red flags, and recommended actions
2. Pipeline Risk Summary - Table of all active deals with scores, ratings, and top risk per deal
3. Forecast Adjustment Recommendations - Which deals to move between forecast categories based on assessment
4. Action Plan - Prioritized list of actions across the pipeline, sorted by deal value and urgency