polymarket-dca-eval-trader

name	polymarket-dca-eval-trader
description	Build and optionally execute a three-tranche Polymarket DCA plan with prop-firm-shaped evaluation envelope checks. Use when the user wants a Bubbles/Roya-style staged averaging template for one thesis, with paper mode by default and explicit live opt-in.
metadata	{"author":"Simmer (@simmer_markets)","version":"0.1.0","status":"scaffold","displayName":"Polymarket DCA Eval Trader","difficulty":"advanced"}

Polymarket DCA Eval Trader

Three-tranche Polymarket DCA template for a single selected thesis. It is modeled as a Bubbles/Roya-style staged averaging framework, not as a guarantee of passing any evaluation.

Read DISCLAIMER.md before connecting funds.

Safety Rails

• Paper mode is the default. Real orders require --live.
• Exactly 3 tranches are supported. This is intentional so sizing and risk checks stay inspectable.
• Per-market and daily exposure caps are enforced before any live order.
• SDK preflight runs before live trading.
• Every journaled event includes source=sdk:polymarket-dca-eval-trader.
• SDK risk monitors are attached only when market duration supports them. Short markets may resolve before monitor cadence can act.
• Defaults are configurable, not a pass guarantee.
• No claim is made that this passes Propr or any prop challenge. Partnership or marketing claims remain blocked on a separate Adrian decision.

Strategy Shape

The skill enters one thesis through exactly three averaging levels:

Tranche	Default trigger	Default weight
1	0.0% price displacement or 0h elapsed	34%
2	2.5% adverse price displacement or 24h elapsed	33%
3	5.0% adverse price displacement or 48h elapsed	33%

Schedule format:

SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_TRANCHE_SCHEDULE="0:0:0.34,2.5:24:0.33,5:48:0.33"

Each entry is:

displacement_pct:elapsed_hours:size_weight

A tranche is eligible when either its adverse price displacement or elapsed-time trigger fires.

Default SL/TP

The default stop-loss and take-profit thresholds follow the requested Roya/Bubbles reference shape:

Knob	Default
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_STOP_LOSS_PCT	2.5
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_TAKE_PROFIT_PCT	4.5

The thresholds are calculated from weighted average selected-token entry price. They are configurable defaults, not evidence that the strategy is profitable.

Eval Envelope

Before a live order, the skill reports whether the executable tranche size would remain inside:

Constraint	Default
Profit target	10%
Static drawdown	6%
Daily drawdown	3%

The envelope assumes a full loss on the proposed executable tranche. Passing the envelope only means the proposed size fits those constraints. It does not predict trade outcome, skill profitability, or prop challenge approval.

Quick Start

# Paper plan only
python dca_eval_trader.py --market MARKET_ID --side yes --anchor-price 0.55

# Paper plan with current price and elapsed time
python dca_eval_trader.py --market MARKET_ID --side yes --anchor-price 0.55 --current-price 0.52 --elapsed-hours 25

# Live trading after reviewing the JSON plan
python dca_eval_trader.py --market MARKET_ID --side yes --anchor-price 0.55 --current-price 0.52 --elapsed-hours 25 --live

Configuration

Env var	Default	Description
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_TOTAL_BUDGET	30	Total intended cost across all 3 tranches
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_PER_MARKET_CAP	50	Max exposure on one market
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_DAILY_CAP	100	Max new exposure per UTC day
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_TRANCHE_SCHEDULE	0:0:0.34,2.5:24:0.33,5:48:0.33	Three tranche rules
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_STOP_LOSS_PCT	2.5	Stop-loss percent from average entry
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_TAKE_PROFIT_PCT	4.5	Take-profit percent from average entry
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_ACCOUNT_SIZE	10000	Eval-envelope account size
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_TARGET_PCT	10	Profit target percentage
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_STATIC_DRAWDOWN_PCT	6	Static drawdown percentage
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_DAILY_DRAWDOWN_PCT	3	Daily drawdown percentage

Journal

Default journal path:

~/.simmer/polymarket-dca-eval-trader/journal.jsonl

The journal records paper plans and live trades so repeated runs can enforce daily cap usage.

When Not To Use

Do not use this skill for:

• Multi-market baskets.
• Martingale sizing.
• Fast markets where monitors cannot act before resolution unless the position is sized as if no exit automation exists.
• Any public claim that this passes a prop-firm challenge.