simmer-sdk

Pre-trade readiness check for autonomous agents. One call returns wallet identity, venue status, spendable balance, open exposure, and a structured ok_to_trade verdict. Run before every real-money trade to prevent cap overruns and catch config issues before they become P&L issues.

Mirror positions from top Polymarket traders. Polling mode (free) for portfolio-style copying, Reactor mode (Pro) for event-driven real-time mirroring via Simmer's on-chain signal infrastructure.

Trade Polymarket weather markets using NOAA (US) and Open-Meteo (international) forecasts via Simmer API. Inspired by gopfan2's weather trading approach. Use when user wants to trade temperature markets, automate weather bets, check forecasts, or run weather-based strategies.

Generate complete, installable OpenClaw trading skills from natural language strategy descriptions. Use when your human wants to create a new trading strategy, build a bot, generate a skill, automate a trade idea, turn a tweet into a strategy, or asks "build me a skill that...". Produces a full skill folder (SKILL.md + Python script + config) ready to install and run.

One-shot bootstrap for the Simmer MCP server. Detects your agent runtime (Claude Code / Cursor / OpenClaw / Hermes / Codex), installs simmer-mcp via npm, writes the right MCP config, prompts a restart, and verifies the tool handshake. Use after registering an agent on simmer.markets to run pre-built Simmer trading strategies through your MCP-aware agent.

The prediction market interface for AI agents. Trade Polymarket and Kalshi through one API with self-custody wallets, safety rails, and smart context.

Self-custody wallet setup for Simmer agents. Choose OWS (recommended), external raw key, or connect an existing dashboard-registered agent to your local runtime. Skip this skill if you use a managed wallet — managed setup is a one-time dashboard flow, not an agent task.

Trade Polymarket "Elon Musk # tweets" markets using XTracker post count data. Buys adjacent range buckets when combined cost < $1 for structural edge. Use when user wants to trade tweet count markets, automate Elon tweet bets, check XTracker stats, or run noovd-style trading.

Trade Polymarket BTC 5-minute and 15-minute fast markets using CEX price momentum signals via Simmer API. Default signal is Binance BTC/USDT klines. Use when user wants to trade sprint/fast markets, automate short-term crypto trading, or use CEX momentum as a Polymarket signal.

Near-expiry conviction trading on Polymarket. The skill scans markets in their final minutes, filters for strongly-skewed splits (60/40+), and places bounded trades against the under-priced side. Defaults — $10 max per trade, 5 trades/run, 8-minute expiry window, dry-run unless `--live`.

Snipe Polymarket opportunities from your own signal sources. Monitors RSS feeds with Trading Agent-grade safeguards.

X-ray any Polymarket wallet — skill level, entry quality, bot detection, and edge analysis. Queries Polymarket's public APIs, no authentication needed. Inspired by @thejayden's "Autopsy of a Polymarket Whale" analysis.

Build an atomic Polymarket combo (parlay) - pick 2+ binary market legs, get live combined odds quoted over RFQ, and place the whole thing as ONE signed order. Every leg must hit to win; any single leg losing is a total loss of the stake. Live placement works with EOA / self-custody wallets, and with deposit wallets after a one-time activate_combo_dw() setup. Dry-run by default (a local plan, not a paper fill). Sports-general (World Cup ready).

Copy the top World Cup traders on Polymarket — auto-curated daily by Simmer. No wallet list to configure; the skill sources leaders via PolyNode's slippage-adjusted copy-PnL screen. Regular mode (daily rebalance). Free tier.

Daily check-in pattern for Simmer agents. One API call returns portfolio, risk alerts, and opportunities across all venues. Use this in your heartbeat to keep your human informed.

Fade sharp in-play price shocks on Polymarket soccer markets with a laddered limit-buy strategy (Roan's FIFA-quant framework). Pro skill. Currently scoped to 2026 World Cup markets. Simmer's server detects shocks in real time and emits pre-sized signals; this skill places the recovery ladder and manages the exit.

Tiny demo skill bundled with `simmer backtest --demo`. Buys YES on liquid favorites to exercise the full backtest pipeline offline.

Trade Kalshi weather markets using NOAA forecasts via Simmer SDK and DFlow on Solana. Port of the popular polymarket-weather-trader. Use when user wants to trade temperature markets on Kalshi, automate weather bets, or check NOAA forecasts.

Buy NO on standalone non-sports yes/no Polymarket markets priced below a configurable cap. Based on the "nothing-ever-happens" thesis — binary markets often resolve NO, and cheap NO shares offer asymmetric value. Scans for candidates via Gamma API, filters out sports and grouped markets, checks fees, and executes.

Trade Polymarket BTC daily and weekly UP/DOWN markets with empirically-anchored exit discipline. Enters on CEX momentum divergence; exits automatically on time cap, volume spike, or target capture. Use when the user wants to trade BTC direction markets (hours/days duration), not fast 5-minute markets.

Trade Polymarket BTC 5-minute fast markets using a magnitude-gated conviction-ladder strategy. Only fires when |1m BTC momentum| >= 0.10%, the magnitude threshold the strategy is built around. Position size scales with signal strength (3 conviction tiers). Reference template for gate-filtered BTC fast-market trading; the original performance claim was retracted (see below).

Build and optionally execute a three-tranche Polymarket DCA plan with prop-firm-shaped evaluation envelope checks. Use when the user wants a Bubbles/Roya-style staged averaging template for one thesis, with paper mode by default and explicit live opt-in.

Trade Polymarket strike/action markets using military aircraft ADS-B positioning via pref.trade. Fires when tracked mil aircraft cluster in a target region.

Research any Polymarket topic — get market data, probabilities, volumes, and top holders in one snapshot. Read-only, no trading.

Make x402 payments to access paid APIs and gated content. Use when a skill needs to fetch data from x402-gated endpoints (like Kaito mindshare API, Simmer premium endpoints, or any x402 provider). Handles 402 Payment Required responses automatically using USDC on Base.

Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, checks fees and safeguards, and executes trades on zero-fee markets with sufficient edge.

Finalize an autoresearch session into clean, reviewable branches. Use when asked to "finalize autoresearch", "clean up experiments", or "prepare autoresearch for review".

Set up and run autonomous experiment loops to optimize Simmer trading skills. Mutates skill code + config, measures P&L, keeps what works. Use when asked to "optimize a skill", "run autoresearch", or "improve my trading".

Post two-sided GTC limit orders on Polymarket CLOB. Manages inventory skew, cancel/replace on price drift, and estimates rebate-eligible volume. Based on Akey et al. (2026): market-making reduces loss probability by 35.9 pp — the single strongest edge on Polymarket.

Auto-log trades with context, track outcomes, generate calibration reports to improve trading.