market-sizing

name	Market Sizing
description	Size a startup's market credibly, top-down and bottom-up, and pressure-test the story.
category	Research

Market Sizing

Judge whether a startup's market is big enough and real — sized two ways and tested against the pitch.

When to use

• A deal's market claim needs standing up in diligence.
• A founder's TAM looks too clean to trust.

Steps

1. Define the market the company actually serves, not the adjacent dream.
2. Size it top-down from credible aggregates.
3. Size it bottom-up from customers × price × frequency.
4. Reconcile the two and explain the gap.
5. Test the growth story against real drivers.

Output

A sized market with both methods reconciled and the growth story assessed, following the [[Investment thesis]]. Feeds the diligence and the memo.